Part of your uncertainty surely stems from the horse-race nature of our terrible press, which always makes runaway general elections look closer than they actually are this time of year. Recent examples include Clinton-Dole, 1996; Obama-McCain, 2008; Obama-Romney 2012. None of those races were actually close races; all of them looked like close races because the media had an interest in making it appear so, particularly in the doldrums of July/August/September.
A considerable number of polling agencies--Rassmussen, for example--also have an incentive to compress the gap. This is the year in which they make the money they will need to struggle along for the next three and a half years. Rassmussen makes its money by telling Republicans what they want to hear, then walking it back in October so they don't look so bad.
Both of these dynamics were successfully used by the Bush cabal to get close enough to steal it, twice, so we are right to be wary of seeing it in action yet again.
But there are already too many factors at work against the Republicans. The presence of a supposed billionaire con-man in the Presidential race appears to have depressed Republican donations across the board. But Trump is working his con and Republican money is going to the top and failing to be spread across thinly gerrymandered House districts. The gerrymandering itself was designed to give Republicans only a few percentage points of advantage in many districts, and the social upheaval they have created has counterbalanced that demographic advantage since 2010. They are defending two dozen Senate seats and over half of those are now at risk. The general trend is that Republicans have been losing their ability to carry statewide races in all but the most ignorant and insignificant states.
Most importantly, there is no third party candidacy which appears to have a broad enough appeal to throw off polls and take entire states away from Mrs. Clinton. Their long-shot of tossing the election into Congress seems doomed to failure now--and that was Paul Ryan's best shot at all this. The safe play for him now would be to sit this out and try to retain his position as Speaker.
Even their base of support has suffered, so Republican attacks are landing thick among former Republican voters: veterans, the nouveau-poor, the nouveau-landless, and those stricken with illness. It's a lot harder to vote against your own best interests when the direct result is poverty and an early death. Die-hards are dying easier and faster. It's a tragic way to effect political change, but that's what's happening.
At this point, part of what we are seeing is a general "bold face" posture by the Republicans as they teeter on the brink of total defeat the likes of which modern Americans have never seen. The basic flaw of conservatism is inability to react to the changes their corrupt policies inevitably cause.
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