Public Service Announcement: Do Not Be Alarmed If Trump Takes the Lead In the Polls Soon

[Doctor Jack]

I know how much some people here like to be miserable and like to worry about every little thing, so here is my attempt to head that off or at least prevent them from dragging everyone else down. This week, Trump will likely pick his running mate and then the Republican Convention will be right after. Barring some catastrophe, in both his pick or the convention, history has shown that he will likely receive some kind of bounce in the polls. He may even take the lead in the averages for the first time ever. Do not be alarmed if polls that showed Clinton +5 show Trump +2 in about 10 days or so. This is normal and expected and will not last or have any meaningful impact on the election.

Everyone remain calm in the coming days. Just as the sky will get dark tonight, Trump pulling ahead is both predictable and not a sign that the end times are coming.

....Announcement Over....

[1StrongBlackMan]

1. Mannn! I was looking forward to running around with my hair on fire ...

as I wailed, depressed.

ETA: Just in case ...

[Doctor Jack]

2. I don't know if some people around here "enjoy" worrying but...

...I don't think they know how to live their lives without being a nervous wreck. Worrying just seems to be the state they are most comfortable with.

[1StrongBlackMan]

3. Come on ... Worry and Anger are the stock in trade of proving ones ...

liberalatude ... even if you have to invent something to be angry or worried about!

[Doctor Jack]

4. I remember being here in 2012, right after the first debate between Obama and Romney

Polls showed that Romney was up by like 1 point, for a couple of days. The reaction that some of the people here had is roughly what I would expect if there was news that a nuclear bomb went off in a major American city.

I don't know how some people here are going to react to the possible convention bounce for Trump but it will likely be somewhere between "mutant supervirus rapidly spreading around the globe" and "Earth will explode in 20 minutes" level of panic.

[1StrongBlackMan]

5. Oh. Just wait until (if) the HRC convention/VP pick bump doesn't result in a ...

double digit lead!!!! (though I expect it to be close)

[brer cat]

22. Hair on fire is what we do best!

[1StrongBlackMan]

28. LOL. I had a conversation with one of BabyGirl 1SBM friends ...

she was a "cutter". From what I gathered, her life was so screwed up ... she was so numbed by the shit that she experienced ... that the pain she felt from cutting, was the only thing that let her know she was alive ... that seems to be the "liberalatude" if we're not worried oe angry, we are not alive.

[Lucky Luciano]

25. Carlin's got this covered.

[BumRushDaShow]

6. Yup - horse race time soon.

If they can get him into the starting gate.

[Cirque du So-What]

9. He is a bit

shittish skittish

[Spazito]

35. LOL!

[Doctor Jack]

11. If it doesn't end up at least at a tie following the Republican convention

Trump is completely fucked. This is his last, best chance to "reintroduce" himself to people. Then again, if the entire convention is "Coming Up Next, Mike Tyson Speaks on the Trade Deficit, Followed by Another Speech from Eric Trump and Then the Musical Stylings of Bruce Willis" then I think all hope will be lost for the GOP.

[longship]

18. The musical styling a of Bruce Willis!!!

Great!

Either that, or (shudder!) Meatloaf!

[Doctor Jack]

19. Put on your headphones and enjoy

[longship]

20. Nooooooooooo! Arrrrrrgh!

(At least it wasn't Meatloaf.)

[treestar]

7. I'm glad their convention is first

I thought I remembered it being later and that bounce occurring more dangerously close. McGrump actually got a bounce on Palin though I guess it didn't last once more was known about her and she'd made a few (I guess you'd call them comments) that proved her idiocy.

[Doctor Jack]

8. In 2008, McCain pulled to roughly a 3 point lead for about a week and

Romney got to roughly a tie in 2012. The good thing is that the incumbent party has their convention second, so any bounce he gets will be quickly cancelled out by Clinton's VP choice and the democratic convention. Still, we could be seeing a rough couple of days of threads titled "Fox News Poll: Trump Takes 2 Point Lead, Is it Time to Start Worrying Yet?"

[treestar]

14. Yeah, there will be tons of concern

[BobbyDrake]

10. IDK, to me it already seems like it's "all hands on deck" for the MSM to be boosting his candidacy.

He's still getting free coverage for every little brainfart he tweets out, and very little of the coverage analyzes his actual behavior. Mostly it's a lamentation about "How did this campaign get so bad?" when the answer is "Because of you fucking idiots not doing your jobs!"

I'm inclined to believe that Trump has already hit his ceiling.

[Cosmocat]

30. Yeah

Its just is accepted practice for the media to gloss over all republican lies, partisanship and out and out jackassery and sadly bemoan their failure from a political standpoint. Doubles down for this fuckwit.

I agree though, even when it tightens w him and hill, he is low 40s. He falls deeper, into the mid 30s.

Something REALLY big, economic or security has to happen to change the dynamics for him

[aidbo]

12. One could argue that Trump being nominated in the first place is a sign of the end times.

But I get what you're saying.

[Doctor Jack]

15. The end times for the Republican Party perhaps

No healthy party would nominate someone with as much appeal as a violent hippo taking a large dump.

[MisterFred]

33. A violent hippo taking a dump is not politics as usual.

That ALONE has appeal in this political environment. Underestimate that at your peril. Insert additional worry currently banned by Democratic Underground.

[Eleanors38]

13. "...and I went, like 'WOW!!'"

[Doodley]

16. I don't see the Republican Convention boosting Trump - Quite the opposite

Yes, he will be nominated, but the big news story will be about a horribly divided party and those who oppose Trump from within his party.

[Doctor Jack]

17. That's the hope but expectations are so low

that even a boring, uninspired convention will be treated like a massive success. Pundits will say "Well, Trump didn't use the "n-word" once during his speech, maybe he is becoming more presidential now".

[Bluenorthwest]

29. I am not nearly sure of that. Boring television is an American high crime and also the one

thing that Trump is not ever supposed to be. They have lots of time to fill and not much to fill it with. It's just not a good situation and if it was our situation I'd be very worried.

[Cosmocat]

31. Its going to be a freakshow, but he will still

Get a bump or hill will dip.

[Bill USA]

21. LOL!!! Good material! I love screw-ball humor!

[Thinkingabout]

23. Perhaps Hillary will get a bump after Sanders endorses her.

[Doctor Jack]

24. Good point

However, I wonder if Trump will also announce his running mate tomorrow, which would drown out any endorsements.

[morningfog]

26. He'll get his little bump. I don't expect his bump will give him the lead,

but I could be wrong. Hillary will soon counter with her pick and he dem convention. And trump will open his mouth again. His bump will be short lived.

[63splitwindow]

27. Thanks. That Don the Con has made it this far...

makes clear how screwed up so many people in this country are, and for various reasons. I honestly believe that, for some, violence and chaos are pure entertainment and the more they can watch while sitting on their ass in their living room, safe, secure, and, in a lot of cases, drunk, the happier they are.

[BlueStreak]

32. The last time a POTUS candidate ran on a "Law and Order" platform

we got Richard Nixon. I hope there are enough people alive that remember that lesson.

[stopbush]

34. Actually, I expect Trump's numbers to go DOWN after the convention ends.

He is going to be such an asshole that even more people will write him off.

That could be the story, but the MSM will do their best to prop up his candidacy.

[ashtonelijah]

36. Mott Romney didn't get a bump in 2012 from the RNC. It was a wash.

Then again, when one of your two major speakers is too busy making his 2016 pitch to talk about you, and your other highlight of the week is yelling at a chair that is allegedly shouting profanities back...

[Doctor Jack]

37. RCP showed he went from down 3 to a tie

But then the dems had their convetion and obama quickly regained the lead and then some