Ipsos/Reuters Poll: Donald Trump is not firing up the base

[DonViejo]

Donald Trump has a man problem. No, not what you think — this is not about sexist remarks or boorish behavior. Donald Trump, whose candidacy is conventionally thought to rest on the support of working class white men, is not attracting nearly as much enthusiasm from them as Mitt Romney did four years ago. Given his poll deficit to Hillary Clinton, if Trump cannot fire up his base of support, Republicans are headed for big losses in November.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll asks respondents to rank themselves on a scale of 1-10 of how likely they are to vote. The average score on this scale can be used as a (very) rough forecast for turnout. However, even more useful, the question can be used to compare the relative enthusiasm of different portions of the electorate at different points in time. The graphic below shows the voter enthusiasm as forecasted turnout in June 2016 and June 2012 by gender.

[image][/image]

Using the Reuters/Ipsos poll turnout estimate, overall enthusiasm is down slightly this year, from 53.3 percent to 51.8 percent and enthusiasm is equally down among men and women. However, when we dig deeper into supporters of Clinton and Trump, the picture changes. Below is the same information with Trump and Clinton voters broken out from the whole population (compared to Romney and Barack Obama supporters in 2012).

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http://blogs.reuters.com/talesfromthetrail/2016/07/11/donald-trump-is-not-firing-up-the-base/

[FSogol]

1. "Republicans are headed for big losses in November"

Make it so, DU.

[stevenleser]

2. He needs to do much better than Romney with white men because he is going to do worse

with Latinos and women.

Much worse.

[Happyhippychick]

3. That's cuz he thinks he should just say "You're Fired"

[Johnny2X2X]

4. Landslide

A landslide is happening. These are utterly devastating numbers for Republicans.