2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNew GE Poll: Hillary +12
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/752901969363230720?s=09
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tallahasseedem
(6,716 posts)I just saw some numbers on Hardball showing Trump up in Iowa. I'm not so sure about that.
BlueNoMatterWho
(880 posts)tallahasseedem
(6,716 posts)They seemed to always be off during 2012. I think the only thing I have to say is GOTV! 
AntiBank
(1,339 posts)BlueNoMatterWho
(880 posts)
AntiBank
(1,339 posts)BlueNoMatterWho
(880 posts)AntiBank
(1,339 posts)thats the poll that has Trump 2 points up in Iowa
quickesst
(6,280 posts)The three and five point spread the MSM pull out of their ass is bullshit, and you can bet your sweet bippy Hillary Clinton is going to win this election in a landslide.
BlueNoMatterWho
(880 posts)Lots of work to do.
CobaltBlue
(1,122 posts)Conflicting polling reports, from some sources, taint these aggregations of polls.
In 2012, Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney in the U.S. Popular Vote by +3.86—that is, Obama 51.02% vs. Romney 47.16%.
This 2012-to-2016 shifting is not going to stand still or be just +1. (Elections following the second term of a term-limited president tend to be more dramatic in national shifting—it was 8 points, in 2000, and about 10 points, in 2008.)
This means either Donald Trump wins a pickup for his party—or Hillary Clinton outperforms Obama and wins beyond single-digit national margin.
Given that I have seen polls showing Trump underperforming Romney numbers on demographics—like white voters (carried by Romney with a national margin of +20; that Trump has performed closer to +10)—I think Team Blue will have end up experiencing a terrific Election Night.
BlueNoMatterWho
(880 posts)Going with the average of polls makes sense. And gives a more realistic outcome which is Secretary Clinton ahead by about 5 points. If we work real hard we may be able to get Hillary +15. With state polls coming out the way they did today, it's not reasonable to believe. Yet.
mcar
(42,300 posts)
KMOD
(7,906 posts)
woolldog
(8,791 posts)Looks like an outlier.
Brother Buzz
(36,412 posts)woolldog
(8,791 posts)Not as bad as I thought!
NorthCarolina
(11,197 posts)
emulatorloo
(44,110 posts)A generalization I know, but I am an Iowan
gopiscrap
(23,736 posts)CobaltBlue
(1,122 posts)Since 1992, Iowa—along with New Mexico—has voted for all popular-vote winners. Iowa (and N.M.) were the only two states which carried for Al Gore, in 2000, and George W. Bush, in 2004. Part of the reason, with Iowa, is that it is now a bellwether state with a built-in Democratic tilt—lately it is about D+2 over national results.
If a Republican carries Iowa…it’s a definite Republican win for the presidency. If a Democrat wins the presidency…Iowa carries.
I would figure, whatever the number is for Hillary Clinton winning the U.S. Popular Vote, Iowa will carry for her and the Ds by about an additional +2.
Feeling the Bern
(3,839 posts)Since there is no national election. How is she doing against him in the 50 state by state rather than nationwide?
Remember, Dewey led nationally and lost to Truman.
Joe the Revelator
(14,915 posts)It would kill Trump to have a halfway conservative, sane person for conservatives to cling too. Hillary is going to win, we should look to end the current republican monopoly on being the 'loyal' opposition.
mr_liberal
(1,017 posts)Joe the Revelator
(14,915 posts)Academically, Trump is the death knell of the current republican party, might as well get a jump on where that party is (hopefully, for the good of the country) heading.
mountain grammy
(26,614 posts)For one, I like the guy, and he'll challenge Trump from the right..
Ligyron
(7,624 posts)State by state is way more meaningful with the more populous states obviously being more important.
Iowa? What are there like a hundred peope living there?
greiner3
(5,214 posts)/s if you need ut
CobaltBlue
(1,122 posts)A +12 Democratic margin, nationally, would mean for Hillary Clinton gaining +8 percentage points over Barack Obama’s re-election popular-vote margin of +4.
That map would move. And the states which would switch colors are ones which carried for Mitt Romney.
iandhr
(6,852 posts)That can't be said enough.
emulatorloo
(44,110 posts)
calimary
(81,198 posts)DO NOT get complacent! She's got this alright, but ONLY if everybody turns out to vote!
DemonGoddess
(4,640 posts)
StevieM
(10,500 posts)findings have clearly taken their toll. Only 7 percent say they are more likely to vote for Hillary, presumably people who are glad that she won't be indicted. 40 percent say they are less likely to vote for her.
James Comey did incredible damage with his press conference. And that is exactly what it was designed to do.
Motley13
(3,867 posts)so we will get out to vote.
calimary
(81,198 posts)I'm glad Bill Maher's pushing that way. We should all be working as though we're ten points behind! We CANNOT afford to get complacent! There's WAY too much at stake.
And NO, a Trump Presidency would NOT be all that easily survivable for far too many of us, or somehow preferable to a Hillary Presidency. Those who claim that are probably the same people who insist both parties are the same, that there's no difference between Dems and CONS. Which, frankly, is idiotic, besides being flatly and thoroughly wrong.
Yavin4
(35,432 posts)If Don is behind 10 or more points, the big donors won't give him money to spend on ads, and the M$M loses out on a lot of dough. They have a financial interest in keeping Don afloat
BlueNoMatterWho
(880 posts)
johnnyrocket
(1,773 posts)The_Casual_Observer
(27,742 posts)That way you will continue to follow her stupid analysis. It happens every time.
Cryptoad
(8,254 posts)everything else is just Gravy!
CobaltBlue
(1,122 posts)Florida, Ohio, and Virginia now regularly carry for presidential winners.
In 2012, the gender vote percentages in Ohio matched the national results for re-election of President Obama: Male 45%; Female 55%. (U.S. Popular Vote: ☑️ Obama 51.02% • Romney 47.16% (Margin: D+3.86.) Ohio will definitely carry again for this year’s winner—Hillary Clinton.
And, hell no, to Pennsylvania flipping Republican. It has produced percentage-points margins which have tilted the state to the Democrats, even when Republicans carried it, since 1952.
Cryptoad
(8,254 posts)It was not a prediction, rather an illustration showing Hillary has already won without all those so called battle ground states the MSM are so worried over. I personally forecast the Greatest Democratic Landslide ever!
CobaltBlue
(1,122 posts)I may been too far ahead.
Colorado has been the tipping point state in both 2008 and 2012—meaning, the margins from the states which carried Democratic, for Barack Obama, and that Colorado is where the Ds arrived at 270.
Colorado was the Obama’s 23rd best state—for percentage-points margins—of 28 (in 2008) and 26 (in 2012) carried states. Following it, in both elections, were Nos. 24 to 26: Virginia (which was best for coming closest to matching its margin with that of the national), Ohio, and Florida.
Since after the 1980s, the Ds have been performing about 12 electoral votes on average per carried state when the party wins: Bill Clinton (re-election in 1996, with 31 states for 379 electoral votes) and Barack Obama (re-election in 2012, with 26 states for 332 electoral votes); and the two winning cycles for Rs have been an average 9 electoral votes per carried state: George W. Bush (in 2000, with 30 states for 271 electoral votes; in 2004, with 31 states for 286 electoral votes).
Looking at historical voting pattern, the margin shifting, from a previous presidential election cycle, nationally tends to be more significant with the election cycle which follows the second term of a president who is now term-limited. (It is more modest with a president who wins re-election to a second consecutive term.) In other words: Rather than a national shifting of 3 to 5 percentage points (as it was with re-elections for a 1996 Clinton, a 2004 Bush, and a 2012 Obama), a national shifting of 8 to 10 percentage points (as it was in 2000 for Bush, following term-limited Clinton, and 2008 for Obama, following term-limited Bush) is what I would anticipate for 2016. If the 2012-to-2016 national shifting was heading in that direction for Donald Trump, he would win a Republican pickup of the presidency—by as much as a national +6. But, with the Rs likely to lose the U.S. Senate, that means Rs will not win back the White House. (In every presidential election, since the 1910s, whenever at least one of the houses of Congress flipped parties…it went to the same party which won the presidency. The Rs already have both the U.S. House and U.S. Senate—and if Trump was going to win, they would not be losing majority control of the U.S. Senate; they would be gaining seats.) This 2016 presidential election points, instead, to additional national Democratic support—and it is no wonder there have been some, say, +12 percentage-points national polling leads for Hillary Clinton. If that pretty much becomes the result on Election Night, it will be a landslide. (Obama won by +7.26, in 2008, and by +3.86, or call it +4, in 2012.)
book_worm
(15,951 posts)AntiBank
(1,339 posts)here he is mocking Christie
https://twitter.com/ddkochel/status/703286311810048000?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
oasis
(49,370 posts)
CobaltBlue
(1,122 posts)That, on the Republican side, Donald Trump will underperform Mitt Romney’s 2012 numbers (very much including whites).
That, on the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton will overperform Barack Obama’s 2012 re-election numbers. (For example: I think she will win a pickup of the male vote nationwide; in 2008, when the president won nationally by +7.26, he won over the male vote with 49% to the 48% percent for John McCain—and that would kill Trump electorally right away.)
