Before you panic about today's polls, look at this map and some 538 numbers.

[DanTex]

I put together the following map using 538 percentages as of right now. In dark blue, I put the most likely states for Dems to reach 270 EVs. The "crossover state" is NV, meaning that NV is the lowest probability state among the dark blue states on the map. Nate currently has NV at 68.5% for Dems. The light blue states are states where the Dems are favored by less than 68.5% (i.e. less than NV), and the light red states are where the GOP is favored by less than 68.5%.


http://www.270towin.com/maps/a0KOn

A few comments. First, the "bad news" polls from today are from FL, OH, and IA. On top of the usual warnings about giving too much weight to any individual poll numbers, especially from Quinnipiac, notice that those states are not even part of the current minimum winning coalition according to Nate's numbers. That is, we can win even if we lose all three (which I don't believe for we will). Also notice that those states are still light blue, even after todays polls, FL and OH are running about 60% Dem.

Here are the raw 538 Numbers, sorted in order of absolute probabilities. The last two columns are the cumulative Democratic and Republican electoral votes, assuming that every state from the given row and below (i.e. the states with greater certainty) goes the way that 538 predicts. So, for example, if we consider 80% the cutoff for a "lock", then Hillary starts off with 213 locked EVs, and Trump with 121, and so on.

[font face="courier"]
            State Lean    % EV DEM REP
1  North Carolina    D 51.4 15 347 191
2         Arizona    R 57.3 11 332 191
3            Ohio    D 59.6 18 332 180
4         Florida    D 60.4 29 314 180
5            Iowa    D 61.8  6 285 180
6        Missouri    R 64.5 10 279 180
7   New Hampshire    D 65.4  4 279 170
8          Nevada    D 68.5  6 275 170
9         Georgia    R 68.5 16 269 170
10   Pennsylvania    D 69.5 20 269 154
11       Virginia    D 71.3 13 249 154
12 South Carolina    R 71.4  9 236 154
13       Colorado    D 72.7  9 236 145
14         Kansas    R 76.2  6 227 145
15   South Dakota    R 77.0  3 227 139
16         Alaska    R 77.5  3 227 136
17          Maine    D 77.7  4 227 133
18      Minnesota    D 77.9 10 223 133
19   North Dakota    R 78.0  3 213 133
20    Mississippi    R 78.4  6 213 130
21        Montana    R 78.6  3 213 124
22      Wisconsin    D 80.2 10 213 121
23          Texas    R 80.5 38 203 121
24        Indiana    R 80.6 11 203  83
25     New Mexico    D 82.3  5 203  72
26           Utah    R 82.9  6 198  72
27         Oregon    D 83.0  7 198  66
28    Connecticut    D 83.7  7 191  66
29       Kentucky    R 84.3  8 184  66
30       Michigan    D 87.2 16 184  58
31     New Jersey    D 88.1 14 168  58
32      Tennessee    R 88.5 11 154  58
33     Washington    D 88.8 12 154  47
34       Nebraska    R 90.2  5 142  47
35       Delaware    D 90.7  3 142  42
36       Arkansas    R 91.7  6 139  42
37        Vermont    D 92.2  3 139  36
38      Louisiana    R 93.1  8 136  36
39   Rhode Island    D 93.2  4 136  28
40        Alabama    R 94.1  9 132  28
41        Wyoming    R 95.1  3 132  19
42       Illinois    D 95.3 20 132  16
43          Idaho    R 96.1  4 112  16
44     California    D 97.8 55 112  12
45       New York    D 97.9 29  57  12
46  West Virginia    R 98.1  5  28  12
47  Massachusetts    D 98.4 11  28   7
48       Oklahoma    R 98.8  7  17   7
49         Hawaii    D 99.5  4  17   0
50       Maryland    D 99.8 10  13   0
51           D.C.    D 99.9  3   3   0
[/font]

[liberal N proud]

1. I think what has everyone freaked out is the way the Media is portraying it

The media has taken any poll (1) and proliferated it as the one true poll.

They tend to do that anyway to boost ratings and they need to boost rating for the Clown Show in Cleveland.

[JGug1]

15. Polls

Every time one of these polls comes out showing Trump catching up or leading in a state, the first reaction is "oh, my god!" The second reaction is "Wait, look at Hillary's lead." Frankly, Hillary isn't leading by enough. Frankly, I won't stop holding my breath until she piece of work, the Donald, concedes. I'm scared. Having said that, I expect to see her numbers improve in the next week, following Bernie's gracious and effective endorsement, then go down following the Republican convention, then go back up following the Democratic convention.......Then we muddle down the road to the debates. Now, THAT is something to look forward to.

[ismnotwasm]

2. I'm not panicked

Or concerned--which shouldn't suggest I don't think we have a hell of a fight on our hands

Thank you!

[tallahasseedem]

3. Thank you DanTex!

I think a lot of us who have been through this media bullshit with polls for the past few election cycles know what's up...but it's the impact on younger/first time voters that scare me.

[DemonGoddess]

4. I'm not panicked at all

What the MSM's attempt at making a horse race is doing to me instead, is making me more DETERMINED to do whatever I can do to help any Dem.

[BlueMTexpat]

8. + a million or so! eom

[CrowCityDem]

5. Even those Q polls, if you dig into them, are bad for Trump. The crosstabs are a joke.

[riversedge]

6. Glad to give it a big Rec and Thank you so much for your work on this.

[BobbyDrake]

7. "Panic" is the new "concern."

Anyone who appears to be exhibiting it falsely will earn their Ignore.

[FailureToCommunicate]

9. Love your sig line.

[raven mad]

16. Rats. You beat me to it! LOL!

A really great sig pic!!

[Squinch]

10. I love you Dan! I was not overly concerned about the Q poll, and I actually expect there

to be even more bad polls around the R convention, but this is a very nice reminder that we are in an excellent position.

I find myself wondering if everyone is just keeping their powder dry these weeks to ensure that Trump is the nominee, and we don't give the R's any encouragement to oust him during the convention.

We've got this.

[OldHippieChick]

11. I know many believe the media is trying to hype this for ratings, but

I frankly think they do the Dems a favor in the hopes we will not stay home and yawn. We must GOTV and if we don't, it will be at our peril. Unfortunately many Dems are lazy and do not fully realize what is at stake. But if they continue to think Trump could win, they may get out of bed.

[ailsagirl]

12. I guess I've never gotten over the trauma of the 2000 election

...otherwise, I'd be practically complacent now. (I said practically)

[IronLionZion]

13. We still have to work for the win

Demographics give us an advantage but our people need to be enthusiastic enough to turn out in big numbers. We can't take anything for granted.

I was very happy to see Hillary's people registering voters in the most liberal part of VA on Monday. We need more of that.

[George II]

14. National polls mean nothing. Here is 538's assessment of the status of the election as of today:

"National Poll":

Clinton - 47.8
Trump - 42.9

Clinton up only 4.9%

Electoral College:

Clinton - 323 (60.1%)
Trump - 214 (39.9%)

Clinton up 109 or 20.2%! That's more than FOUR TIMES the margin of the meaningless national poll.

Remember folks, the Electoral College is the important thing to keep in mind!

Finally, 538 gives Clinton a 70.6% chance of winning, Trump only 29.4% chance of winning.

[Warren DeMontague]

17. Well, yeah, if we win OH, PA and FL then of course it's in the bag.

Those are the big 3, every 4 years.

[DanTex]

18. Add VA to that, and if we get 2 of those 4, it's pretty much in the bag.