National polls don't show gains for Trump per se. More about Clinton losing ground to Johnson/Stein/

[riversedge]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Nate Silver Verified account
?@NateSilver538

National polls don't show gains for Trump per se. More about Clinton losing ground to Johnson/Stein/undecided.


Back to national overview
National polls

Our model is mostly based on state polls, but national polls inform various steps of its calculations, such as the trend line adjustment, house effects adjustment and demographic regression.



Who will win the presidency?

Chance of winning
FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

66.2%

Donald Trump

33.7%
FiveThirtyEight
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Key

50%

60

70

80

90

Clinton

Trump

Tipping points
Electoral votes

Hillary Clinton

310.3

Donald Trump

226.9

Gary Johnson

0.7
Popular vote

Hillary Clinton

47.3%

Donald Trump

43.3%

Gary Johnson

8.1%
How the odds have changed

We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 8.

[tonyt53]

1. Ya see, that's the thing about these polls. Johnson, won't even be on the ballot in every state

Between Johnson ans Stein, plus all the other nobody's on the ballot, won't get 1%. They always poll a lot higher than their actual votes.

[TwilightZone]

2. Similar thing happens every four years. They poll well early, then fade after the conventions.

Johnson was polling ~8% in 2012 and received 1%. Stein was polling in the mid-single-digits and got 0.35%.