BTRTN Electoral College Snapshot: Is It the Same Old Song...

[tgards79]

...just with a different feeling with Trump and Hillary along?

Yes, there is enough polling -- albeit early -- for us to do our first electoral college snapshot. Not a forecast, or a prediction, just an up-to-date state-by-state view of where the election stands right now. And despite the epic nature of this campaign -- with two incredibly unpopular candidates -- the exercise has an eerily familiar feeling.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2016/07/btrtn-electoral-college-snapshot-is-it.html

[unblock]

1. awesome -- wait, we're winning kentucky?

[tgards79]

2. Yes, one poll so far

And Clinton is ahead. Don't count on that lasting, though. But good that it is this close!

[unblock]

3. sweeet!

[MSMITH33156]

4. Very little polling

skews a lot of that. No way HRC wins Kentucky but loses Florida, for example.

But I think the huge takeaway is that if you just count HRC's solids and leans, she is up at 302. Now, 2 of the "leans" are Kentucky and North Carolina. I think we can definitely win North Carolina, and would be shocked if we win Kentucky. But, even if HRC loses both of those, she still wins, since those total 23 electoral votes, pulling her in at 279.

When we talk about demographic shifts, what we really mean is in states that were never really in play shifting left. And we see that most notably in Colorado and Virginia. Those are really difficult states for Republicans to win nationally now. And GWB won Colorado twice and Virginia twice easily.

So our focus is always on Ohio and Florida, because that's where 2000 and 2004 were decided. The big swing state we just couldn't quite win. But the map has shifted so much, that we could lose Florida, Ohio, and Iowa, and still win because now Virginia and Colorado are purple leaning blue.

The Republicans need a tectonic shift to actually win. In 2012, the there were only 4 states decided by less than 5 points (and 5 points is a healthy margin). Florida, Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina. Romney won North Carolina, and lost the other 3. But even if he'd won all 4 of those states, he'd still have lost 272-266. That's the uphill climb they're facing. The map has continuously shifted to us, and they have totally bypassed the way to shift it back by running a bigot.

[tgards79]

5. Very good analysis

Agree completely with every point. I'm actually intrigued to see if there is more red state polling this year. Trump could be quite weak. I agree it would be hard to believe that she could win Kentucky, but look at the polling in Georgia, Mississippi, Alaska, Utah and even Texas. All single digits and some low-to-mid!