Why This Concern Over Clinton's Poll Numbers Is Total Bullshit

[Doctor Jack]

Ah yes, we have entered that period once again, where every minimal movement in the polls brings out the concern troll brigade who want to flood our lovely little community with panic and dread. I warned this would happen on July 2nd.

See:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512231681

The problem with taking polls in July is that people aren't overly focused on politics. There is a lull between the primaries and the final stretch of the general election. People are on vacation, they are planning barbecues, watching fireworks, going to concerts. They aren't sitting in their houses, reading every news story and waiting for pollsters to call them. Right now people just don't give a shit about the election and the polls get a bit tighter. It happens in early to mid July in every election and yet like clockwork the poll junkies become a nervous wreck.

Want proof? Well lucky for all of you, I've done the legwork on this one.

Where are the national polls today? Clinton has been bouncing around between about 3-4 points in the averages over the last 10-14 days. Hell, if you eliminate that obviously bullshit Rasmussen poll showing Clownfart McRacist up by 7 points, her average is close to a 5 point lead in the polls. But if we want to include it, the consensus today is right around a 4 point lead. Sure that is down from her peak since wrapping up the nomination, which occurred on June 28th at 6.8 points ahead but as I have said, not unexpected.

Lets travel back in time to 2012. Did the same thing happen? Absolutely. On June 30th Obama hit an early summer peak of 3.8 points over Lord Mittenfield Romelsford III before dropping to just over 1 point by July 18th. Oh look, nearly identical dates to the peaks and valleys of this year. Spooky!

But we can go deeper, to the space year 2008. Shit, that election was never close right? Obama was crushing Grandpa Munster in the polls throughout the summer, wasn't he? No! Obama reached his peak support in the early summer on....wait for it....June 29th! Say what!? Yup, 7.1 points over Senator Dracula. But then by July 18th (oh shit, the same day!) he was down to just a 4 point lead in the averages. Now the VP picks and the conventions were quite late in 2008. About a month later than this year, so the lull lasted a bit longer and Obama was up by just 2.5 points by July 29th.



Oh but national polls don't matter! Clinton is way behind where Obama was in the swing states in 2008 and 2012. Bullshit!

Florida July 17th:

2016=Clinton +2
2012=Romney +0.4
2008=McCain +2.2

Colorado July 17th

2016=Clinton +5
2012=Obama +2.9
2008=Obama +3.6

Iowa July 17th

2016=Clinton +3
2012=Obama +1.3
2008=Obama +7.4

Michigan July 17th

2016=Clinton +6
2012=Obama +1.8
2008=Obama +7.7

New Hampshire July 17

2016=Clinton +4
2012=Obama +6
2008=Obama +0.7

North Carolina July 17

2016=Clinton +4
2012=Romney +1.2
2008=McCain +4

Ohio July 17th

2016=Clinton +2
2012=Obama +3.8
2008=Obama +4.5

Pennsylvania July 17th

2016=Clinton +3
2012=Obama +7.8
2008=Obama +7.7

Virginia July 17th

2016=Clinton +4
2012=Obama +2
2008=McCain +0.7

Wisconsin July 17th

2016=Clinton +9
2012=Obama +4.4
2008=Obama +11.2


Well shit. Besides some minor deviations, Clinton's poll numbers are just about as good as Obama's in 2008 and quite a bit better than 2012. And yet people are locking themselves into their fallout shelters, ready to run out their final days. Obnoxious but ultimately pointless. If you want to freak out, imagine Clinton and Trumps numbers were reversed. Imagine that Clinton had only been ahead 1 day in the averages with Trump since June of last year or that she was trailing, often by a lot, in the swing states. Imagine if Clinton was in the same position that Trump is in right now, which is the same position that 97% of all losing candidates in the last 80 years were in, that is, trailing consistently by mid-July.

Trust me, her position couldn't really get much better but it could be a hell of a lot worse.

[CanonRay]

1. Agreed, but

we'd best not get complacent and risk these dangerous lunatics in the White House.

[writes3000]

3. Who is getting complacent? Please tell me...

Who do you think reads this analysis and decides not to care/donate/etc?

I know some people love to see disaster looming to motivate themselves but most people don't find bad news motivating.

[CanonRay]

4. just don't want people thinking she's got this in the bag

because Trump is such an idiot.

[Doctor Jack]

6. In the bag, no but very likely to win, absolutely

[stopbush]

2. K&R

The anti-Hillary forces on DU from the primaries have morphed into the concern trolls.

[Her Sister]

32. FRENEMIES:

1
Spot the frenemy in your life. Before you can deal with a frenemy, you need to know you're friends with one. Some indicators might include:
They are never able to enjoy your good fortune. If something good happens to you, their bottom lip curls into a sneer and they just have to say something derogatory, undermining and barbed.
They're a master at the art of backhanded compliments, those compliments which sound okay on the surface but actually can be taken another way to mean something less than flattering (for example, they may say something like, "I like it when you wash your hair, that's when it's pretty," because this is suggesting that you are ugly without your hair washed.) And they seem to use this "art" on you a lot.
They gossip about you. When it gets back to you and you raise it with them, they deny knowing anything about it or lie through their teeth and say that someone misinterpreted what they meant.
They always backbite about you and try to spoil your friendship with others.

2
Listen to your own instincts. How does being with this person leave you feeling? Are you uplifted in their presence or do they always manage to take the wind out of your sails and leave you feeling down and unsupported? If you find that whenever you're down and miserable, they're around a lot more than when you're upbeat and in control, this is an indicator that you're with a person who soaks up misery and sees someone down on their luck as a target for control and manipulation. Moreover, if after spending time with them, you're left feeling sapped and bad about yourself, then you're not with a good friend – good friends make you feel good about yourself. Take note of anything like the following and be wary:

[TreasonousBastard]

5. It's the dog days, and...

all three of our local Dem organizations I work with are on vacation for a month.

WHAT! A Presidential election on the way and everything's slowing down?

Well, yes. We just had an exhausting congressional primary and we are taking a break, heading for the beach and hanging out on our sailboats in the bay while we sip our wine and ward off the mosquitoes.

And school's out.

Plenty of politics will still be around in September when we're ready to get back to work.

[Doctor Jack]

7. I usually pay a lot of attention to politics

and I've been spending far less time in the last few weeks reading articles and following the news. I got better shit to do. I have friends and family to spend time with and places to go. I can't hide away in my office following every blip in the polls right now.

[CrowCityDem]

8. Yes, the polling is still well in our favor. Trump needs millions of white immigrants by Nov.

[Doctor Jack]

10. Mitt Romney's 2012 chief strategist said

The idea that there is some massive group of white voters that pays a lot of attention of politics but that don't vote because the republicans aren't conservative enough is total nonsense. There isn't some large, silent group of white people waiting to come out en masse to vote for the perfect republican candidate. That is good for us though. Trump is going to spend all of his resources trying to turn out voters that don't exist. He would quite literally be better off hoping that people that the dead rise from the grave this year and that they vote republican. At least those corpses exist. They are a bit indisposed at the moment but they are more likely to vote for him than phantom voters that never existed to begin with.

[CrowCityDem]

12. Just seeing his numbers with Latinos is enough to make panic stupid.

[barbtries]

9. what i think the REAL fear is (and hate to admit I share it to an extent):

we won't get out the vote.
i listened to washington journal yesterday and the callers horrified me with too few exceptions. the ignorance. one caller said trump will declare WWIII and it will last about 100 years, and this is what that caller wants to happen. another caller blamed the economy on the obama and "liberal policies" and casually mentioned how along with his small farm, he lives on disability and veterans benefits. way too many callers expressing support for trump. when i say i was horrified, i really mean it. i had to turn it off.
i have little doubt that most americans are smarter than that, and recognize that a trump presidency is certain to be an absolute catastrophe. but they have to VOTE, they all have to VOTE!

[TreasonousBastard]

13. I'm on eastern Long Island in NY and going back to...

Obama's first run there was a ton of interest. Obama brought a ton of people out and the teabaggers were out in force fighting it.

Then it suddenly stopped. I knocked on doors for congressionals, locals, and Obama's 2nd run and fewer and fewer people gave a shit.

I don't know why it stopped, but it did. Voter turnout turned down. Fewer than half of local registrants are R or D-- mostly "none". And nobody gives a shit about it any more.

Bernie got some more people out, but that's nothing better than Dean, the old Nader, and others did. Seemed like a new face, but now we got nuttin'

I was at a meeting this morning that I didn't realize was a Bernie revival. It was kinda sad-- these people had a dream, but they're waking up from it.

[barbtries]

14. i stuck with Bernie

until it was mathematically impossible for him to win. and i'm still with him - supporting Hillary.

[Demsrule86]

26. consider that more voted for Hillary

Without rallies or noise...we live in a time when we have political gridlock and many see their votes as not mattering..but you can't say that this year...not with a racist POS like Trump running.

[TreasonousBastard]

34. I live in hope that Trump scares enough people to get them out to vote, but...

that's not the best way to keep democracy working.

[Demsrule86]

35. I hope so too. I like Hillary and am very enthusiastic.

I want Trump to be trounced in order to stop the GOP we need to win the Senate and hopefully the House.

[Demsrule86]

37. Hey I like Hillary a great deal

I feel that many who don't...are still bitter over the primary or listen to the right wing attack machine too much. But you will never get a candidate you agree with 100%.

[rjsquirrel]

11. Hand wringing, garment rending

Saw an OP today that was literally titled "time to panic?"

Lol whatever. Like that is going to help? And then what, hit the Magic Red Button and won this thing?

It's July, people. Polls go up and down.

[George Eliot]

15. Polls are a new drug. I give them not credit and not time at all.

They depend on questions asked, populations selected, slant of the pollster, the questions, time of day, before/after major events, member of the family responding . . . they are totally irrelevant in my opinion.

The worst is that sometimes they drive elections because people believe them which is unbelievable to me. As we get closer and given honest, objective pollsters, I might give a different answer. But this far out they are just another marketing tool/campaign strategy.

[Chemisse]

16. Thanks for providing perspective.

Tightening polls this season bring me to the edge of hysteria. I live in terror of a Trump win.

These numbers help.

Maybe I should shut off the news and enjoy my summer like all those others do!!

[Her Sister]

17. Yep not falling for no concern polling! Plus I know what the media want!

& I refuse to give it to them!

Thanks! Yes let's keep our heads & stay collected but also hungry & thirsty!

[MFM008]

18. Pearl clutching..fainting couchs

SMELLING SALTS!!!!!!!!!!!

Vapours!!!!

[Moostache]

19. This is a 3 state election - OH, PA, FL - THAT is the whole ball game.

CA? NY? IL? all will be blue with no surprises...
TX? Plains states? IN? MS? all will be red with no surprises...

The entirety of the election boils down to Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida.
Period.

The GOP and their Trumpster Fire need to sweep all 3 AND protect NC, GA and VA.
Clinton needs one of the 3 or a combination of 2 of the other 3 and it is all over.

People of OH, PA and FL....if you have never volunteered or participated in Get Out The Vote efforts, PLEASE plan to do so this year.

The handwringing (and worrying that I admit to in myself) is all for nothing if we hit a GOTV % above 65%. It would be mathematically impossible for Trumpster Fire to get over the hump with that many votes needing to be stolen, switched or invalidated.

If the public bothers to show up, the race is not close...

[Moostache]

20. Numbers from above added....

Ohio July 17th

2016=Clinton +2
2012=Obama +3.8
2008=Obama +4.5

That is not a good Democratic Party trend...3 cycles, 3 decreases in % of the vote at a point in time...looks like a state in transition.

Pennsylvania July 17th

2016=Clinton +3
2012=Obama +7.8
2008=Obama +7.7

This is not a good trend for Clinton...losing half of the support from Obama's coalition in PA is troubling...not fatal, but this polling is cause to be MASSIVELY in Philly, Pittsburgh, Harrisburg and other metro areas in the state.

Florida July 17th:

2016=Clinton +2
2012=Romney +0.4
2008=McCain +2.2

At least the Florida polls show almost the opposite trend as Ohio...3 cycles and 3 upticks in Democratic support...so that looks good.

[Demsrule86]

27. That is no longer true

If you study the electoral map, you will see that Dems can win a number of ways...but for the GOP, it must be Ohio and Florida. We have a better chance electorally speaking. Pres. Obama could have lost Ohio and still won the presidency in 12.

[betsuni]

21. I refuse to spend one little second worrying. Not falling for that again.

Last election even though I knew better, I let myself freak out occasionally what with all the breathless "neck-and-neck" election business on teevee. They'll do the same thing this time. And like any celebrity, overexposure is bad for the career. People are going to be sick of The Trump Show by November.

[randome]

22. It's science!

[hr][font color="blue"][center]You have to play the game to find out why you're playing the game. -Existenz[/center][/font][hr]

[nolawarlock]

23. It's interesting how many of the concerned ...

... have matching names on the JPR hate site pushing Stein or Trump.

[Demsrule86]

30. I decided my reply was divisive and I don't want to do that ...but I agree.

[Nevernose]

24. I have to admit: I worry about it a lot

I'm not so worried, though, that Clinton will lose, but that Trump will win. Does that make sense?

A reality TV star with no discernible skills other than hubris, one willing to pander to the very worst parts of American society...the fact that he's even being considered by so many people as a viable presidential candidate is, at best, depressing.

[Logical]

25. FFS, so in you opinion ANY discussion about poll numbers is trolling? FFS is this place getting....

to the point where anything but fucking praise of Hillary is trolling.

[Demsrule86]

29. What is wrong with supporting the Democratic nominee?

[Logical]

33. We can support them and be concerned, correct??? Nt

[Demsrule86]

36. I don't see that...the concern appears little more than an attack designed to bypass the site rules.

[AgingAmerican]

39. So being worried about a potential Trump presidency is now a TOS violation?

[OnDoutside]

31. Will there be a massive coordinated Republican effort to stop Democrats getting the vote out ? It

seems the only way that they can become competitive.

[Demsrule86]

40. Yes, Virginia

The GOP effort to suppress the vote has been underway for years now. Here in Ohio...we have one polling place for our entire town...the Dem areas lost their precincts...expect long lines and a serious effort to steal Ohio.

[AgingAmerican]

38. Is there such thing as a 'Head in sand troll'?