Many Republicans will abandon the Trump candidacy.

[MineralMan]

That's my prediction. A couple of delegations at the RNC walked out of the convention. People are waking up this morning after shutting off last night's convention coverage in disgust, only to find out that things were even worse than they thought, in the light of day. Some Republicans are going to write this election off, due to the poverty of the party's selection of a blustering buffoon as its nominee.

Many will just skip going to the polls. Others, who are more moderate in their political thinking, will vote for Hillary Clinton, who will be the sanest candidate on the November ballot. But they're not going to vote for Trump. They'll just shake their head, as they did so many years ago when Goldwater was the candidate. Sometimes, it's simply not worth voting for a lousy candidate at all.

That is one of the reasons Hillary Clinton is going to win this in a landslide. It's not going to get better for the Trump campaign, either. He'll continue to spoil his own candidacy, driving more and more Republicans away. The Republican platform, too, will have its own affect on Republican turnout. Millions of Republicans understand first-hand the realities of reproductive choice, marriage equality and the rights of people to practice the religion of their choice. Many also know and respect people who are immigrants from Mexico and other nations.

The Republicans are spelling out their own party's doom in 2016. May the party's self-destructive course continue apace.

[Demsrule86]

1. I hope you are correct...I fear that hate sells. nt

[MineralMan]

3. Hate won't get the majority of the vote.

It will only get the haters, and they're a minority in this country. There is nothing that will convert haters to rational people. We just have to write off that minority and go for the rest.

[forest444]

9. Absolutely. Gary Johnson might just outdo Ross Perot this year.

Especially if this Rethug convention turns violent.

[tonyt53]

16. Johnson won't get 1%. Not even on the ballot in some states. He said they couldn't afford it.

[forest444]

26. Well, he's on the ballot on all 50 states.

He may indeed not be able to afford to campaign or have an office in all of them, however.

[tonyt53]

30. He said on TV that he could not afford to be on the ballot in all states. Saw him say it.

[forest444]

32. You're right: the Libertarians are currently in 36 states. Thanks for the correction.

https://www.lp.org/2016-presidential-ballot-access-map

Too bad, though; the better Johnson does, the less likely Trumpolini is to win.

[Demsrule86]

31. I do believe you are right.

I have confidence that we will win in November hopefully by numbers big enough to take the House.

[apcalc]

2. You may be right.

But after watching this convention of crazies, I am beginning to wonder.

The woman calling for Hillary to wear prison stripes? This is not normal. They are absolutely looney.

[MineralMan]

7. That appeals only to a minority of voters.

A small minority, actually. We can't win over the haters.

[stopbush]

11. I couldn't imagine Rs sinking any lower than they did in 2004

when they mocked John Kerry's war record by wearing band aids on their faces at the RNC.

But then, their hatred for Hillary knows no bounds and has inspired them to new levels of indecency.

[PatSeg]

15. Yes, that is what came to mind for me

And they didn't even hate Kerry the way they hate Hillary.

[grossproffit]

4. Our friends abandoned ship and moved into Hillary's camp months ago.

This will be the first election cycle that we're all still speaking to each other. bwhahaha

[MineralMan]

12. I know some Republicans, too, who will vote for Clinton.

They simply can't countenance Donald Trump as a candidate and won't skip voting.

[stopbush]

5. Agreed. I won't be surprised if Trump's numbers sink even more

after the convention - a reverse bump, as it were.

[C_U_L8R]

6. There's one word I think of when it comes to the Trump campaign

Bullshit. The whole thing is a mountain of bullshit.
And there's no there there to Trump except more bullshit.
Sooner or later some Republicans might realize
that they don't particularly like this bullshit that
Trump is feeding them. The rest of 'em, well,
we'll know them by their stink.

[MineralMan]

8. That's why the Democratic Party must present itself

as thoughtful, sensible and competent. That's the winning combination in 2016. Fortunately, our nominee understands that, as does the entire Democratic leadership. We'll win by being the only party that make any sense.

[C_U_L8R]

10. And thank goodness !

[Blanks]

13. Giuliani wasn't a good choice...

Our TV was muted, but he was gesturing wildly and saying crazy stuff like "Trump is gonna do for America what I did for New York".

It looked like a yawn fest in the seats while Rudy looked like he was yelling at kids to get off his lawn.

The commentators were talking about how no prominent republicans are gonna show up.

I'll be surprised if they get any kind of bump.

[vegetarian x]

14. Never underestimate the willful ignorance of the American people

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

17. It's a clusterf*ck of epic magnitude, but we can't afford to be complacent.

People have a psychological impulse to dig in harder when confronted by the colossal wrongness of their beliefs, so the more the Trump campaign screws up the more intensely his true believers will dig their heels in and continue to truly believe. But the growing intensity of the dumpster fire is likely to be a huge turnoff for independents and undecideds, even those who have decided long ago that they don't like Hillary.

Watching the convention dissolve into a stew of hate and incompetence is giving me a severe attack of Schadenfreude - it's becoming easier every day to argue convincingly that electing Trump would be a horrific disaster, if not an extinction event.

[MineralMan]

18. Of course we can't. We need to project competence, sensibility,

and good judgment throughout the campaign. If we can do that, and let the Trump campaign devolve into shouting, lies and fear, we'll win going away. I think we can do just that. I'm counting on it.

The Republican Party is on the verge of making itself unelectable, and not just in presidential terms. There is a vast mass of Republican voters closer to the middle of the road than people realize. We can shift them to the Democratic side. I know that's not a popular point of view with some people, who would rather the Republicans just went away. They won't, though. We can use their votes to our advantage.

I believe all we have to do is let Trump drive them away and just be reasonable in our campaign.

[PJMcK]

21. Your optimism is infectious, MineralMan

Your argument aligns with mine: Hillary Clinton is competent, smart, thoughtful, organized, empathetic and experienced. Her campaign reflects those qualities and they will appeal to American voters. The contrast between the two candidates couldn't be more defined.

I'm confident that she'll have down-ballot coattails that will help Democratic candidates across the US.

[KingCharlemagne]

19. What is somewhat depressing is that Trump will still garner sone 40% of

the popular vote in November. I just can't believe that many people can be that stupid.

Good OP BTW. I once thought HRC's negatives would keep it closer, but I think that sensible stable competence will send her to a landslide in the Electoral College.

[MineralMan]

20. A 60-40 win is a landslide victory in

presidential elections. I believe this election will be on that order, more or less. I can easily see Hillary winning 350 electoral votes or so this year if everything goes well. States like Arizona could easily flip into the blue zone. I can see Georgia in play, as well. This may be a historic election, in the end.

[KingCharlemagne]

22. I hear ya. I just fi d it a little depressing that so many of my countrymen

would vote for a fascist strongman like Trump. HRC is going to have to be their president too

But I largely agree with your assessment.

[zipplewrath]

23. Hope it affects the down ticket races

I do hope the result is a shift in voting for the down ticket candidates. It could severely impact the House if things go well.

[CallMeCrazyMikePence]

24. Johnson is over 10% in 4 polls now.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

One actually has him at 13%.

It used to be something like you needed to be at 15% in 3 polls I think.

Or was it a 15% average of all polls?

[MineralMan]

25. Yes. Some Republicans will shift to the Libertarian Party.

That will help Hillary, too.

[CrowCityDem]

27. Even when everything was going his way, he couldn't break 40% in polls. That won't win.

[thucythucy]

28. Trump is an existential threat to the traditional GOP.

It's more than just a personal distaste for the Donald, as powerful as that might be.

A Trump victory in November means he gets to remake the Republican Party in his own image. He's a man who is known to carry a grudge, and all the GOP insiders--the Bushes, McCain, Graham, Cruz, Ryan et. al--will either have to bow to the Donald, or will find themselves without a party. The entire Republican infrastructure will be co-opted to serve Trump.

Faced with that prospect, I don't doubt that very many GOP operatives, fund raisers and funders, even many of the rank and file, will take a hike this time around.

[Bad Thoughts]

29. We say the same thing every four years

We still need to fight.

[Orsino]

33. Especially women.

If they can't bring themsrlves to vote Democratic, their enthusiasm for the GOP can't be great.