Clinton and Trump tied in New Hampshire

[woolldog]

Clinton 37
Trump 37
Johnson 10
Stein 5

Jill Stein is hurting Clinton.

New Hampshire isn't a pivotal state. The big three are Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. If Hillary wins one of those, she likely wins the White House. Still shocked it's so close in a state like NH.

https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2016_summer_presrace072116.pdf

[dhol82]

1. I'll wait for the polls in October.

[OnDoutside]

38. +1 Well said.

[book_worm]

2. I wish people would wait until the polls after both conventions...

that is when we will begin to see the real race. Both VP nominees and both conventions and acceptance speeches.

[MohRokTah]

3. As always, your concern concerning the polls concerns everybody.

It's concerning.

[woolldog]

10. would you prefer I only post good polls?

There are plenty of posters who do that. There's a certain poster who is constantly letting us know when HRC is polling favorably in the Ipsos-Reuters poll.

Hmmm haven't seen him (or her) post for a while. Could it be because Clinton's lead in that poll has plunged by 8 points in the last week?

[MohRokTah]

12. I have never seen you post a single thing good about our nominee.

[NurseJackie]

4. Should I be worried? Or frightened? Or merely concerned?

[woolldog]

11. you should be concerned.

we all should be.

[NurseJackie]

34. It's difficult to get worked up about this ...

... I'm a reasonable person who knows that we haven't even had our convention yet. This is so silly.

[tallahasseedem]

5. That's why the notion...

that any third candidate should be invited to the debates, etc. should not be taken lightly.

[treestar]

6. Are there any state polls favoring Hillary?

It would be concerning if all the states looked like this.

[StevieM]

7. New Hampshire is a pivotal state in a close election. Just ask Al Gore.

Had he won New Hampshire he would have been president.

New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado, Ohio, Florida and Virginia are the states that will have the closest contests in a dead heat election.

North Carolina is also expected to be very tight. And Arizona could surprise people. Although if Hillary can win those two states then the election will not be a dead heat.

[woolldog]

13. This isn't 2000.

It won't come down to New Hampshire. Trump has to sweep PA, OH, and FL. Period.

If he doesn't, Clinton wins regardless of whether she wins NH. If he does sweep those states, Clinton winning or losing NH won't matter. Look at the following examples

Trump sweeping PA, OH, and FL (NH 4 votes doesn't matter)



Trump not sweeping PA, OH, and FL (again, NH doesn't matter)



NH is simply not a tipping point state this election.

[davidn3600]

27. But it's a bellweather. And have you looked at polls in PA, OH, and FL?

As of right now, it doesn't look impossible for Trump to win those states. If Trump is leading in New Hampshire, he's probably leading in several other swing states.

I'd say the chances of sweeping all 3 might not be high. But it's not impossible. You got people here who seem to think this election is over and Hillary has this in the bag.

That type of complacency and overconfidence is good way of getting your ass kicked. If too many people feel this election is over and in the bag, that will destroy your turnout. It will dampen your ground game. Why? Because you get lazy. You start getting into a rut thinking you dont have to work that hard.

[MFM008]

8. NH used to be a solid red state

so we will see.

[LonePirate]

9. Here's why polls like this one are remarkably wrong.

Neither Johnson or Stein will receive more than a point or two of support come Election Day. They will not receive the 10 and 5 points they are currently receiving. Their inclusion in polling right now is simply to give the illusion of a tight race and to provide an alleged indication of voter dissatisfaction with the two major party candidates.

[pnwmom]

14. AND neither the Libertarian nor the Green Party are on the New Hampshire ballot.

So polls that include them as anything other than "other" automatically exaggerate their degree of support.

[woolldog]

16. That's good to know.

Plus NH is irrelevant this year. See my post above.

[pnwmom]

18. Yes, and I checked before I put that up there. They keep doing these national polls that include

both these candidates, but they're not going to be on the ballots in every state -- at least not yet. I don't know what the probability is that they will get more states between now and November.

[uponit7771]

25. +1, in the head to head in the poll data Clinton is winning

[LowerManhattanite]

15. It's the “Bi-Postal” DU'ers who give me the greatest entertainment.

The crack me up WHEREVER they post. LOL.

[woolldog]

29. This is offensive to the mentally ill.

Mental illness is not a joking matter. Shame on you.

[LowerManhattanite]

37. Um...as in “Bi-coastal”?...

...as in, living in TWO places at once?

Or posting in two places, diametrically opposed at once?

I'm deeply sorry that your poor faux-rage-o-meter's got you so messed up.

[NHDEMFORLIFE]

17. Clinton will win here

Like most summer polls anywhere, I wouldn't think about this one too much. I just hope she wins here by enough to send Maggie Hassan to the Senate.

[DemonGoddess]

19. Polls at this point in the election are meaningless

as has been said multiple times, by multiple sources. They're interesting to watch for a few things, such as the decided LACK of bounce der Trumpenfuerher is getting from his convention. Other than that, it's too soon for them to be of any real use.

[davidn3600]

21. The problem is....

A month ago when the polls showed Hillary with huge leads, everyone here was celebrating. No one was claiming they might be wrong or it's too early.

What we can take from these polls right now is that there is no question this race has tightened over the past month. There is no question Comey's comments caused significant harm to Hillary. That's true. A NYT poll showed 67% of voters say they do not trust Hillary. It is also true that nearly as many also say they don't trust Trump either. But that only further enforces one reason why it's a tight race. People don't like the choices.

[DemonGoddess]

22. People don't like the choices because

they're all too willing to believe 30 years of the RW smear machine in action. Never mind any actual facts.

[Codeine]

20. Who gives a shit about people who aren't even

on the ballot? Such also-rans are nonentities now and need not be bothered with.

[Dem2]

23. Ok, your purpose is clear

God how annoying.

[uponit7771]

24. NO... not among LVs statewide head to head... but anyway... not worrying about NH

[woolldog]

26. NH is not a tipping point state

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=2273032

But this is more clear evidence of the race tightening significantly. This started before the convention. Even the Reuters/Ipsos national poll has tightened a lot. It's concerning.

[uponit7771]

30. Unnn, alt parties aren't on the ballot in NH and tRump is still bumping the GOP floor % of 40

... which means landslide if he gets anywhere near 45% post convention.

HRC is leading among LV head to head and spread vote in 4 of the 6 BG states...

I'm more concerned about down ballots ... we can turn the senate blue and get rid of gerrymandering.

[bigwillq]

28. That's on Hillary

Not Stein or anyone else. It's Hillary job has to sell herself and her brand.

[uponit7771]

33. No alt parties registered in NH, HRC is winning head to head in this poll

[Squinch]

31. Gosh. Shouldn't you be panicking somewhere?

[book_worm]

32. I notice you do this kind of thing every four years.

Panic.

[Demsrule86]

35. Meaningless and seriously what the heck poll is that? nt

[woolldog]

36. you've never heard of the university of new hampshire?

ok...

[Demsrule86]

39. Of course, I just don't think polls this far out are accurate

And I would have to look at the internals.