Romney had a Chance of Winning....

[heresAthingdotcom]

and on election day 2012 Romney was shellshocked when he lost....

Mitt Romney's campaign got its first hint something was wrong on the afternoon of Election Day, when state campaign workers on the ground began reporting huge turnout in areas favorable to President Obama: northeastern Ohio, northern Virginia, central Florida and Miami-Dade.
Then came the early exit polls that also were favorable to the president.
But it wasn't until the polls closed that concern turned into alarm. They expected North Carolina to be called early. It wasn't. They expected Pennsylvania to be up in the air all night; it went early for the President.
After Ohio went for Mr. Obama, it was over, but senior advisers say no one could process it.
"We went into the evening confident we had a good path to victory," said one senior adviser. "I don't think there was one person who saw this coming."

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/adviser-romney-shellshocked-by-loss/

the last RCP average poll before the election in 2012 showed President Obama up by .7 of a percent....
http://www.stanleyyelnats.com/2016-polls.html

and some polls showed Romney winning..... Rasmussen and Gallup....President Obama won by 4% and 5 million votes and received more than 300 electoral votes....

Hillary Clinton is performing better in some Demographics than President Obama did in 2012 and better than some that Romney won ... White Americans with College Educations... Romney won by 14% in 2012 and lost by 5 million votes.... Hillary is beating Trump in that demographic from 5% to 10% a swing from 2012 by 15% to 20%.....

there is a simple reason President Obama won in 2012 and that reason is simply this.... President Obama got 5 million more votes than Romney...

In 2012 White Voters made up 72% of the voting population.... President Obama received 39% and Romney 59%... in 2016 the White Voter Population has dropped to 69%....

a recent poll showed Clinton leading Trump 47%-40% with registered voters, and 49%-41% with likely voters, “Clinton has the support of 87% of Democrats and Trump has the support of 84% of Republicans, while independents split 42% for Clinton and 37% for Trump. The gender gap is particularly large, Clinton leads among women by 27 points (57%–30%) while Trump leads among men by 13 points (50%–37%). Clinton also holds a commanding advantage among black, Hispanic and Asian voters (72%–17%), while Trump leads among white voters (49%–38%).”

Hillary is performing 1 percent less than President Obama but Trump is performing 10% less than Romney

Republican strategist Whit Ayres lays out the numbers in his thoughtful guide to the demographics of the next election, “2016 and Beyond: How Republicans Can Elect a President in the New America.”

By Mr. Ayres’s calculations, a 2016 Democratic nominee who matches Mr. Obama’s 39% share of white voters will need to win 75% of nonwhites—a smaller share than the 82% Mr. Obama carried in 2012.

A recent poll shows Hillary winning the non white demographic with a 77% share....

An ABC News/Washington Post poll released Sunday has Clinton leading among nonwhite voters by the biggest margin yet: 77 percent of nonwhite voters side with the presumptive Democratic nominee, compared with 15 percent who prefer her Republican counterpart.

In 2012 the Voters broke for President Obama and there is nothing that suggest that the same won't happen in 2016, the voters will break for Hillary....

It will be close and every vote will be necessary .... recent events with voter rights will help as Republicans can't suppress the Votes of Democrats....

Democrats need to drive the turn out up to 122 million or more... I think Hillary will win in November... and I will do my share to make certain she does.... as every other American who doesn't want the FASCIST Trump to win....

[writes3000]

1. Really interesting post. Especially as you overlay the electoral map...

It really does mean that the map may be changing this season putting a few more states in play for us but making others more vulnerable than usual.

With hard work and voter turnout, Hillary will win.

[JustAnotherGen]

2. Excellent post!

Thanks!

[stopbush]

3. Obama led Romney by 1.9-2.6% in July 2012

Hillary's lead over Trump in yesterday's Reuters-Ipsos poll was 4%.

But she's a weak candidate.

[glennward]

14. Hillary is not as "weak" as some people want us to believe. nt

[DetlefK]

4. The days when white male voters dominated everything are gone.

You no longer automatically win if you focus on getting as many white male votes as possible.

But maybe a certain somebody is not interested in having his point-of-view challenged. After all, he has the best brain.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

5. Romney NEVER had a chance of winning. Why? He had to win ALL of the battleground states.

He couldn't lose one...NOT ONE...of those battlegrounds.

I actually trust what Axelrod and Plouffe told me: You will be in bed by 10:00. And once PA and OH was won, it was all over.

[Hortensis]

6. Two theories: 1. Romney was counting on voting machine

tampering a la Rove to guarantee his victory. Investigations have turned up evidence that this may have occurred, and it would also explain Rove's very peculiar performance on Fox when HE also refused to believe the loss.

2. Romney was expecting God to put him in charge of America's military because it was time for Armageddon. There is very strong evidence for this.

I'm inclined to believe both, although #2 is probably virtually certain to be part of the reason Romney was so sure he would win when no normally rational person could have been.

Btw, the bogus analysis that follows of where the race is has everything to do with keeping viewership pumped up and, of course, trying to defeat pro-regulation Democrats.

Also btw, I have no sympathy for any DUers who want Hillary to lose. It's not going to happen. These "proofs" that she is losing or doing terribly have been presented here for most of a year now, and in that entire year she has been ahead of Trump by all significant indicators. An awesome indicator.

[PatSeg]

8. I'd forgotten about Rove and his Ohio tampering

I don't think Romney knew about Rove's antics, but I do think he believed he was chosen by God as you say in #2, some fulfillment of a Mormon prophecy.

I remember being shocked that Mitt really was so sure he was going to win. He really was an awful candidate.

[Hortensis]

10. I can imagine. But I was fascinated.

We had tons of Mormons in the neighborhood where we raised our children, so I knew a lot of the prophesy about the Second Coming, etc., that was supposed to occur during our fortunate children's lifetimes. Then Romney, who said many times that God gave him wealth and capability and that his life and everything he had were devoted to the service of God, after 1 brief "qualifying" term as a governor, entered the presidential race in case God was calling him to preside over Armageddon. By the time he lost he must have been sure he had been called.

Anyone tampering with voting machines may have deliberately kept the guy at the top out of it, but I don't think you can overestimate the ruthlessness of the truly righteous. Any tampering would have been possible by the grace of god and in god's service.

As for ruthless, what would top Romney campaigning all over the nation, switching his spiel from audience to audience, but never telling anyone that a vote for him meant that before long they would live in a theocracy and that they would be much happier and healthier living their lives according to god's law?

[PatSeg]

11. I can see him justify

cheating if it is god's will, though I think he was clueless enough that he thought he didn't need to cheat to win. He certainly seemed willing to change his positions at the drop of an hat whenever it suited him politically. He even wore a fake tan to solicit support from the Hispanic community, like no one would notice.

Mr. Squeaky Clean also had no problem accepting the endorsement of Ted Nugent or sharing the stage with Donald Trump. That was probably in the name of god as well. Anything to fulfill the prophecy.

You know I wonder what George Romney would think about all this.

[Hortensis]

13. I forgot the tan! Lol.

Huh. Now I wonder a bit about George also. Mitt often said he honored his father, but there's no overestimating the power of self-deception either.

I've always imagined he's been sitting nervously all this year wondering if he would be called. If you remember, he actually floated the possibility of running to the press early in the primaries; a former funder immediately contacted others and they promptly informed him that they'd all back someone else against him.

So, that's something. We're facing off with Trump, a secular devil, instead of Romney and his god. Suits me.

[PatSeg]

16. George seemed like a much different man

He really did build his own fortune and though he might have been grateful, I doubt he credited god for his wealth. Meanwhile, the chosen son inherited his fortune and increased his wealth through private equity (hardly divine inspiration) and putting people out of work. George actually made "things" and his politics were quite liberal. Mitt was born and lived in a bubble of privilege and entitlement.

The fake tan was hysterical and he seemed unaware of how absurd it looked!

I agree. As much as I cannot stand Trump, better him than another campaign with Mitt and his snooty wife. So sad, no one in the party could stand him.

[Yavin4]

7. There are polls and there is turn out.

Polls don't mean anything if folks don't turn out.

[BobbyDrake]

9. I think you've got that backwards. Voting is the only "polling" that matters.

All other polls are meaningless relative to actual ballots cast.

[tman]

12. This should ease some betwetting.

It's a good thing to be scared. It keeps us non-complacent.

[Logical]

15. Great post! nt