Tim Kaine Wouldn’t Do Much To Help Clinton Win The Election

[joshcryer]

If Hillary Clinton chooses Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia as her running mate, as betting markets and journalists suspect, then in some ways, it’s a dull story. Kaine has traditional credentials, having served as Virginia’s governor before joining the U.S. Senate. He’s young enough, at 58, that he could run for president himself in 2020 or 2024. He’s not especially liberal, but he’s no Blue Dog Democrat, either. He’s a white guy, although he speaks good Spanish. If Mike Pence is a “generic Republican,” then Kaine is a “generic Democrat.”

The difference is that Kaine comes from a swing state, whereas Donald Trump would likely lose Pence’s home state, Indiana, only in a national landslide. If you’re going to pick someone from a swing state, is Virginia among the better options? And how much difference does the vice presidential nominee really make in his or her home state?

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/tim-kaine-probably-wouldnt-win-clinton-the-election/

More at link, copy-paste was pretty heavy on text, didn't want to put too much here. It's a good article, though. Kaine gives a very, small, slight, swing state advantage, meager at best.

[CrowCityDem]

1. There's no quantifiable evidence that Warren, or anyone else, brings huge benefits either. VPs don't

[MADem]

4. Trump is not going to win MA, and EW has no executive experience and is still a fresh face in the

legislature--though she is very talented.

[joshcryer]

7. I like EW.

And I like you MADem. I'm not going to argue for EW voraciously, but man, it'd be cool. Just sayin'.

[MADem]

13. I wouldn't mind a bit if she was the pick. It might still happen (long shot, though, I think).

HRC is more experienced than any POTUS candidate in recent years--certainly more versatile than anything the GOP put up. She doesn't "need" qualities to fill out her resume (like Trump plainly does).

I just don't see the value-added with EW--MA will go blue in Nov. I think it may well be that EW will go on to a cabinet or other position, like, say, Fed chair, and become the 21st Century Greenspan, but time will tell....!

It'll all depend on how well we do in the Senate/House races.

[joshcryer]

17. I figure it's Kaine for what it's worth.

But this article needed to be posted, imo.

Clinton is literally the most experienced candidate in American history. Just calculate it. As another poster said, we don't really need a VP to win anything. So, pick Warren. Clinton has the experience. Let Warren completely obliterate Pence. That's my vision.

[runaway hero]

24. You don't want two women on the ticket?

That's the added value.

[MADem]

27. And take the risk that Charlie Baker will run for Warren's seat himself?

That's the value reduction!

[runaway hero]

47. but the history! :)

If Charlie wants to be pres (he clearly does) he should stay governor.

[MADem]

49. LOL--I'll bet Mitt wishes he'd gone to the Senate for a bit! nt

[runaway hero]

50. For sure.

It hurt him not having the relationship on the hill


Anyone past repub is better then Trump!

[joshcryer]

5. Just posting the article.

Hoping for someone else, but yeah.

We need Warren. Not because of some benefit but because it would let me not worry about the Stein purists. We got this. We'd just get this without worrying about the sadists.

[YOHABLO]

8. Are you kidding?

[Joe the Revelator]

10. I think Warren is an important voice and a great Senator....but we don't need someone to reach out

to liberals in the Northeast. That's covered.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

34. Bernie as the VP pick would bring ENORMOUS benefits... assuming he would even accept the VP slot.

[CrowCityDem]

37. He would also let Trump spend three months talking about Socialism.

[tonyt53]

38. You betcha. More more to fear for the already afraid. The bad part is, he would have lots of ammo.

[chillfactor]

2. I agree...

we need someone who can whip people into a frenzy. Kaine is too passive.

[TheBlackAdder]

56. The need to perform a "Hard Sell" is indicative of a poor selection, and only introduces risks.

[exboyfil]

3. No one from Florida is available

Virginia has 13 electoral votes. Someone who would help in Pennsylvania or Ohio would make more sense, but you can't lose Brown's Ohio Senate seat.

From an electoral standpoint it is a very sound decision.

[joshcryer]

6. Fair argument.

But man, to pick a VP just to win a single state...

[exboyfil]

9. Will the Spanish fluency help in Florida?

Also I think he is a good counter move to Pence. He has both executive and Legislative experience like Pence.

[MADem]

16. It will help from sea to shining sea. nt

[joshcryer]

18. Possibly. I was shocked at his Spanish ability.

Took me completely off guard. Put him on Telemundo and see what happens.

[joshcryer]

35. BTW, Julian Castro's biggest failing was not knowing Spanish.

I'm a big fan of Julian, but he doesn't even know Spanish (being born from Mexican parents). There were rumors that they (the "establishment&quot were trying to get him to learn it. It seems that it never happened which I think is why he's not really even being seriously considered now.

Kaine makes sense from that perspective. I want Warren but I'm fine with Kaine. The dude literally can go from English to Spanish in a sentence or two. It's impressive. Especially because he's just a white guy. Who has a very very good handle on the language. It's why I think he's going to be picked.

[Joe the Revelator]

12. Kaine will play throughout the Mid-Atlantic...you sew up VA and NC...

and this thing is over before it....'begins'.

[exboyfil]

20. Help in NC would be great

Obama almost carried it last time. It was the only disappointment on election night. Carrying both NC and VA would put a buffer if we lost OH and PA. A few different combinations to win even without Florida.

[MADem]

51. He has other pluses, too--he is very personable.

He used to be DNC chair--he knows all of the players, in all of the states. He understands the SYSTEM. He will be very helpful in that regard--ground game, GOTV, etc.

The Spanish language skill is ... YUUUUUUGE. How nice it will be to have a candidate on the television speaking the language on Univision and Telemundo without having to listen to someone doing the translation. That direct conduit is a big deal.

[Cosmocat]

11. Yep

nm

[Cosmocat]

14. he is exactly like Pence

(voterwise) won't move the needle either way, with the exception that he might help to keep Virginia in the fold, which is big.

[underpants]

28. Not at all like Pence.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512275840

[Cosmocat]

31. Exactly like Pence

VOTERWISE.

Not personally or on the issues.

Just that he won't lose any votes for Hillary and isn't going to get many more.

[MADem]

46. Pence doesn't speak Spanish. nt

[Cosmocat]

52. Pence is an arrogant, extremist right wing dogma type

But, that isn't the point.

To 90% of the electorate, who are lucky to even know who the VP are, much less not have the hard core knowledge of their positions on issues and what they have done during their career, they are mirror images - non descript older males who don't say a lot (Their basic resume even is similar, both governors/ex governors who were in congress).

Neither are dynamic enough to get any meaningful people to vote for the ticket because of them, neither have said or done anything high profile to be a negative to the ticket.

Kaine could help to make sure VA stays blue, Trump probably doesn't need any help for Indiana. That is the only real, small difference electorally

[MADem]

53. There's a whole world of voters who watch Univision and Telemundo and

other Spanish language stations--his ability to do first-person outreach, not through an interpreter, is invaluable. Also, he's a Roman Catholic and that plays well with that demographic.

Especially after Trump's huge sign fail "Hispanics PARA Trump" (LOL---so much WRONG on that you can't even begin to imagine--every word is wrong) at the convention it is obvious that Trump doesn't hear or care about the concerns of the Latino community.

[Cosmocat]

54. I'm feeling you

about your points with Kane, I am not saying he isn't a fairly well rounded public servant.

But, there aren't many latinos who aren't either going vote Hillary on the merits or are completely repulsed by Trump that are going to flip to Hillary because of the things you are noting.

[MADem]

57. It's one thing to get them to vote, it's another thing to make them WANT to vote.

"Con Kaine" (with Kaine), they will have a place at the table.

[democrattotheend]

15. On the flip side, he won't cause her to lose

I personally favor a bolder pick but I can see the arguments for picking a safe pick like Kaine.

[geek tragedy]

19. Warren would help with small donor fundraising and recruiting volunteers.nt

[joshcryer]

21. Warren would let me sleep at night...

...without giving a goddamn about the idiotic Stein / Naderite purists.

Outside of that I don't care too much.

[geek tragedy]

25. that crowd has already written her off

but she would turn a lot of meh Sanders supporters into enthusiastic volunteers and donors. And she'd give Clinton a populist edge Kaine wouldn't.

[joshcryer]

29. I know.

I think JPR fascists are total shit and don't care about them. I just like not having to worry about Naderites. I lived through 2000. Was a Naderite myself (until things got serious). Never turned back. Democrat to the end. (Have not voted for non-Dems since then; note: didn't vote for Nader either just saying I supported him naively.)

Warren's populism would be a nice counter to Pence. But Kaine would be fine. Just not as entertaining.

[CrowCityDem]

32. But the majority in both contests didn't vote for populists. The majority of the country is with H.

[geek tragedy]

33. The question is where the persuadeable and unlikely voters are who could be won over. nt

[CrowCityDem]

36. History would say in the middle. Swing voters are a bigger group than Green-types.

[geek tragedy]

41. slightly different rules this time.

Kaine would be more valuable vs a country club Republican type than vs a fascist whose appeal is to downscale voters

[CrowCityDem]

44. No Dem could, or should, appeal to Trump's racist fans.

[geek tragedy]

48. if Trump gets every racist white person, he'll win nt

[DonCoquixote]

22. if the single state argument held

then Sherrod Brown would be near the top is he would be the only way to save Ohio from being stolen by Kasich.

[exboyfil]

26. Can't lose the Senate seat

but yes, strictly from electoral map considerations, he would have made more sense. I like Kaine's executive experience though. Some thought he will help in North Carolina as well.

[Nevernose]

23. He might help pull in a few white male votes

That's the only group she's really lacking a lot of support from.

It's a nice place to be. Trump is basically straight white men's death grip on the presidency. A little nerve racking, but it's nice to think about. When the rest of Congress looks like the people in my neighborhood, things will be a lot more close to perfect.

[jamese777]

30. No one knows...

If Senator Warren would even accept the VP slot, if it was to be offered.

[tonyt53]

40. I kind of doubt she would. She knows where she can do the most good. Smart lady.

[tonyt53]

39. I keep asking, but exactly what do people think a VP can do?

Other than what Bush II did with Cheney, they are usually funeral attenders. What has Biden been doing?

[Buns_of_Fire]

42. Wouldn't help much. Wouldn't hurt much. Kinda bland, all in all.

But I imagine the first rule in picking a VP is that they shouldn't upstage the candidate. You don't pick a second banana who might have more appeal than the top dog.

[StevieM]

43. Tom Vilsack would help in Iowa where the race is closer. Maybe a little in Pennsylvania

by creating a narrative of a ticket with deep ties to the state, given Hillary's family history there.

He also has some name ID in rural communities.

I think Hillary is listening to Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and Terry McAuliffe, all of whom want Kaine. She would be better off following her own instincts if she personally preferred Vilsack.

[book_worm]

45. Few VP's do--but he could guarantee her the swing state of Virginia

[whatthehey]

55. So if she picks him

We know that hundreds strong experienced brain trust with access to more data and savvy than anyone here could ever dream of knows that November is a sure thing and they care about the West Wing rationale that lasts for the next 8 years instead.

While I personally think Warren would be more intriguing a pick like this would be a lot more reassuring.