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Sat Jul 23, 2016, 02:16 AM

Go ahead and call me crazy, but this could be the map we see on Election Night

<div align="center"><a href="http://www.270towin.com/maps/pDDZd"><img src="" width="800"></a><br><small><img style="vertical-align: middle;" src="" alt="" /> Click the map to create your own at <a href="http://www.270towin.com/maps/pDDZd">270toWin.com</a></small></div>

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Reply Go ahead and call me crazy, but this could be the map we see on Election Night (Original post)
RandySF Jul 2016 OP
BainsBane Jul 2016 #1
RonniePudding Jul 2016 #4
BainsBane Jul 2016 #6
glennward Jul 2016 #18
BainsBane Jul 2016 #20
Aristus Jul 2016 #26
highprincipleswork Jul 2016 #2
MarianJack Jul 2016 #3
Old and In the Way Jul 2016 #7
Jim Lane Jul 2016 #16
Old and In the Way Jul 2016 #46
eShirl Jul 2016 #42
Cha Jul 2016 #5
NCTraveler Jul 2016 #24
Cha Jul 2016 #28
MrScorpio Jul 2016 #8
Laura PourMeADrink Jul 2016 #35
Chicago1980 Jul 2016 #9
MohRokTah Jul 2016 #36
Firebrand Gary Jul 2016 #10
Berlin Expat Jul 2016 #11
kairos12 Jul 2016 #12
LongtimeAZDem Jul 2016 #43
B Calm Jul 2016 #13
BlueMTexpat Jul 2016 #14
JustAnotherGen Jul 2016 #15
Maeve Jul 2016 #22
DrDan Jul 2016 #17
Cosmocat Jul 2016 #21
Logical Jul 2016 #19
John Poet Jul 2016 #23
citood Jul 2016 #25
GulfCoast66 Jul 2016 #27
Historic NY Jul 2016 #29
rock Jul 2016 #30
L. Coyote Jul 2016 #31
Android3.14 Jul 2016 #32
DCBob Jul 2016 #33
Demsrule86 Jul 2016 #40
kwolf68 Jul 2016 #34
MohRokTah Jul 2016 #38
treestar Jul 2016 #37
Demsrule86 Jul 2016 #39
Demsrule86 Jul 2016 #41
forjusticethunders Jul 2016 #44
AwakeAtLast Jul 2016 #45

Response to RandySF (Original post)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 02:22 AM

1. Certainly a possible scenario.

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Response to BainsBane (Reply #1)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 03:02 AM

4. Yes it is

 

Even more so if you subtract KS, Utah, Nebraska and maybe Arizona and add NH, Maine, Ohio and Michigan.

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Response to RonniePudding (Reply #4)


Response to BainsBane (Reply #1)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 06:33 AM

18. But I think we win OH and MI. Now you can call me crazy. nt

 

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Response to glennward (Reply #18)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 07:29 AM

20. But not Kansas or Nebraska

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Response to BainsBane (Reply #20)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 08:04 AM

26. I agree with all of those.

Yes to Michigan and Ohio; no to Nebraska and Kansas.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 02:23 AM

2. OK, you're crazy.

 

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 02:47 AM

3. Hello from Winthrop, Maine.

Maine will NOT vote for Donald Rump, and neither will New Hampshire!

I wouldn't be too sure about Georgia, West Virginia or Missouri, either!

PEACE!

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Response to MarianJack (Reply #3)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 03:21 AM

7. This Mainiac concurs!

1 will go Dem. 2? Who knows? Worst case 2-2 EV.

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Response to Old and In the Way (Reply #7)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 06:11 AM

16. Your "worst case" is mathematically impossible.

 

A candidate who wins in each CD must necessarily have the statewide win, for a 4-0 sweep.

If two candidates each win one CD, then the statewide win (and a 3-1 edge in electoral votes) goes to the one with the larger winning margin.

In the wildly unlikely event of a significant third party with enough statewide support to finish second in each CD but first overall, there could be a 2-1-1 split, but I can't see any way to get to 2-2.

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Response to Jim Lane (Reply #16)

Sun Jul 24, 2016, 11:41 PM

46. I stand corrected.

Thought it was possible. To split the vote cor POTUS

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Response to MarianJack (Reply #3)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 09:28 AM

42. yeah, no way Maine is going to be red

violet if not solid blue

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 03:02 AM

5. Aloha from Blue Hawaii!


Pat Fuller ‎@bannerite
If you are sick and tired of GOP obstruction and grandstanding, then it's time to ride the wave!
8:44 AM - 6 Jul 2016
26 26 Retweets 33 33 likes

https://theobamadiary.com/2016/07/06/chat-away-altonsterling/

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Response to Cha (Reply #5)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 08:00 AM

24. Bringing my longboard so I can pick up passengers!!!

 

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Response to NCTraveler (Reply #24)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 08:06 AM

28. Aloha, NCTraveler~

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 03:26 AM

8. OK, you're nutty as fruitcake...

Michigan is going to be BLUE!

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Response to MrScorpio (Reply #8)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 08:55 AM

35. Based on his gut feeling from talking to so many people there Michael Moore

thinks Trump will win Michigan. Boooooo

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 03:42 AM

9. Wishful thinking...

But doubtful.

Nebraska and Kansas, nor will Utah be going blue.

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Response to Chicago1980 (Reply #9)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 08:57 AM

36. There is a chance for Utah to go blue.

 

Utah is a strong Romney state and Romney is anti-Trump, so enough Utah Republicans could go for Johnson and throw the state to Hillary.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 03:43 AM

10. Do we really believe that HRC will not carry Arkansas???

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 03:53 AM

11. Larry Sabato's

latest projection (July 22, 2016) is nothing less than an absolute debacle for Trump.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2016-president/

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 05:12 AM

12. Arizona is quite a long shot. I don't think we have gone Blue since Clinton in 96.

I also think Florida will be really tough. I doubt think North Carolina goes Blue either. On the other hand Ohio might be in play. Drumpt's ego is such that he might put alot of resources into California and waste his time.

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Response to kairos12 (Reply #12)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 10:37 AM

43. We could go blue if guns are not a major campaign issue

There's a lot of dislike for Trump, which could translate into Republican apathy; combine that with crossover voting by moderate Republican women, and we could pull it off. But the apathy would disappear in a strong anti-gun campaign.

I don't think we need AZ to win the presidency, but I'd really like to see things shift left here.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 05:37 AM

13. Kansas, you're killing me.

 

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 05:39 AM

14. I wouldn't be surprised to see

MT go blue this time around, especially if Hillary campaigns there. That may be true for WY as well because the demographics and voting mentalities are similar, except that WY has a smaller percentage of Native Americans in its population.

I know that there aren't that many electoral votes in either state, but it's the principle and if Clinton-Kaine run a 50-state campaign as they say they will, we may be able to knock off MT's Rep Zinke (a dolt). Denise Juneau is running a good campaign against him and the Native American vote (the largest minority at just under 7%) will be out in full force to support her (in MT, they're "Blue" voters, as a rule!). Hopefully, Bullock also retains the gubernatorial seat there.

Trump-Pence epitomize too much hate and bad behavior for most Montanans I know (of both parties) and women especially are turned off by that ticket. Many of those who might have voted GOP this time around will vote for Gary Johnson (there are still RON Paul signs standing in some areas of the state, LOL). Others will either not vote or - very quietly and without fanfare - support the Dem ticket. There will be the stalwart RW nutcases who will support Trump-Pence no matter what, but ....

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 05:43 AM

15. With a strong GOTV effort in Ohio

Ohio will be blue. We need numbers/volume - and since Trump is targeting Kasich now . . . Kasich has nothing to lose by ensuring Trump doesn't win by shenanigans. Add in that I strongly suspect Kasich runs in 2020 with the slogan - I Told You So.

There is an adult in Ohio - whether we agree with him politically or not. And he doesn't have to come out for Clinton or bash Trump.

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Response to JustAnotherGen (Reply #15)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 07:52 AM

22. I think Ohio will go blue as well

With a strong showing for the Libertarians (enough to drain the air out of the Rs)

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 06:13 AM

17. a blue KS and NE - I stopped looking after seeing that

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Response to DrDan (Reply #17)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 07:37 AM

21. Yep

Kansas is some serious Wizard of Oz fantasy, and NE isn't far behind.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 07:18 AM

19. Randy, Kansas alone proves this is 100% incorrect. Nt

 

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 07:55 AM

23. You're Crazy! Michigan will not go for Trump!

 

if she does, I'll disown her!

Swap Michigan for Utah, Kansas and Nebraska, and the result is almost the same.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 08:02 AM

25. I live in Kansas

So far, I haven't seen or heard any political ads for this race...this is because neither side believes it is in playm

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 08:04 AM

27. Way too much blue on that map

Especially in the plains states. But too much red in the heart of the Midwest. I think Hillary takes Ohio. And she should take Michigan.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 08:06 AM

29. I'm hearing Ohio is souring on Trump after the shitstorm....

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 08:15 AM

30. If people were called crazy because of their political opinions ...

Oh, well, you see my point. Besides, I guessing the map is going to be a whole lot bluer, A whole lot bluer!

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 08:15 AM

31. Ohio and Michigan will be blue, maybe Texas and Missouri too. See Goldwater 1964.



Just switch Arizona blue, and this is what you can expect if we get our voter behind overthrowing the Republican Congress, Trump wins the old racist south only.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 08:17 AM

32. He's not going to win Maine

 

The state is Clinton's to lose.

LePage, winning both terms as governor by splitting the vote with a shady third party opponent, has become one of the most vilified governors in the state's history, and Maine has voted Democratic in the last six elections, with Barack Obama winning by 15 percent over Mitt Romney in 2012.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 08:35 AM

33. A few issues..

Kansas and Nebraska are not going blue and Maine and Michigan are not going red.

However the end result is right. Its going to be a blowout win for Hillary Clinton.

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Response to DCBob (Reply #33)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 09:26 AM

40. I hope so.

I don't want to underestimate Trump but winning a primary is different than winning a general election.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 08:50 AM

34. Kansas? LMAO Utah? Another LMAO Nebraska? Another LMAO

I don't believe she'll win North Carolina either, but think she does win Ohio. Even your map minus the 3 states I mention she's still +300.

Your map indicates what SHOULD happen given the opponent, but Hillary is not going to win those states.

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Response to kwolf68 (Reply #34)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 09:05 AM

38. Utah is a long shot blue possibility this year.

 

Romney is anti-Trump and Utah was the strongest Romney state in the country. That combination could reslt in enough Utah Republicans voting for Gary Johnson to throw the state into Hillary's column.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 09:02 AM

37. A way to win without Ohio

But I think we can get Ohio and Michigan, Maine and NH.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 09:25 AM

39. I do not see Ohio going red.

Obama won twice...and today's steel need trade with China and trade agreements.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 09:27 AM

41. I would also say

we could have lost Ohio and still won in 12.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 10:43 AM

44. Sorry but no way.

 

If Hillary has lost Michigan, she's lost PA and FL and NC, and probably VA. The white working class in Michigan leans Dem, and there are plenty of POC there too. It goes without saying there's no way she's winning AZ/UT in an election she's losing Michigan.

I think Hillary's ceiling is 400 electoral votes if the DNC runs a crash operation in Texas and spurs record Hispanic turnout.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Sat Jul 23, 2016, 11:25 AM

45. Don't count Indiana out

Even Republicans aren't happy with Pence, and many of them LOATHE Trump. It's possible!

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