Gary Johnson (and Stein) Votes are Votes for Trump (UPDATED for 7/25)

[ericson00]

Last edited Mon Jul 25, 2016, 07:23 AM - Edit history (1)

While some polls have Johnson, Stein, or both of them taking more from Hillary, some more from Trump, I've seen Nate Silver's new article:

an Echelon Insights poll, conducted on Thursday and Friday, shows Clinton up by 1 percentage point, although Clinton’s lead grows to 4 points if Libertarian Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s Jill Stein aren’t included. Echelon Insights had not previously polled the election.

However, the Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll, conducted from Monday through Friday, shows Trump making major gains, trailing Clinton by less than 1 percentage point. Clinton had generally been up by around 10 percentage points in that poll before the convention began. Clinton’s lead is slightly larger, 3 percentage points, in the version of the poll without Johnson and Stein.

From this, we see Johnson (and Stein to a lesser extent) electing Donald J. Trump. Silver previously had an article about this

The majority of pollsters (12) have Clinton’s margin over Trump shrinking when at least one third-party candidate is included

Gary Johnson may have originally been thought by some to be helping Hillary by some of the talking heads who wish to make a story, have an excuse for Trump's troubles, or whatever reason, but the data shows this to be a lie. And sure a few GOP NeverTrump politicians are talking Johnson. However, those political class guys are not the ordinary voters real polls capture.

The data says this loud and clear: Gary Johnson is threatening to elect Donald Trump. Gary Johnson isn't even a conservative in most ways, and he is closer to Clinton regarding major issues like social policy and Mexican immigrants. For the good of this country, Gary Johnson must drop out and endorse Hillary. His voters should be persuaded to go Clinton. I am working on getting my Johnson supporting friends to go Hillary. I hope you all do too.

I hope you all spread the contents of this thread to Facebook, Twitter, etc. so perhaps it gets thru to Johnson and Stein's fans and ultimately Johnson and Stein themselves that they need to drop out NOW.

UPDATE 7/25:

Donald Trump comes out of his convention ahead of Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House, topping her 44% to 39% in a four-way matchup including Gary Johnson (9%) and Jill Stein (3%) and by three points in a two-way head-to-head, 48% to 45%. That latter finding represents a 6-point convention bounce for Trump, which are traditionally measured in two-way matchups.

That's +5 in a 4 way, +3 (within MoE) in a two-way. http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/25/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-poll/index.html

Johnson and Stein MUST DROP OUT!

[ericson00]

1. and if Hillary does manage to win with Johnson in the race

but with less than 50%, its likely the GOP will do to her what they did to Bill re the debunked Perot-myth; use the "spoiler elected President X" excuse to delegitimize her and weaken her politically. Also, the GOP won't get as powerful a message as they would otherwise get if Hillary does get over 50% of the vote.

[duncang]

2. How much would Johnson hit trump though?

Personally I think that has been under rated. Got a couple long time red republicans. With out any prompting (hadn't seen one in weeks) they both said no way voting for trump. But also said no way clinton. Their voting for Johnson.

[ericson00]

3. I addressed that. However, data > anecdote.

because individual people's experience can't know everyone or everything. Its much more subject to selection bias, social desirability bias, small sample size, etc.

The data says Johnson elects Donald J Trump.

[bigwillq]

4. Each vote is a vote for a democracy.

Each vote is a vote for that candidate, not a vote against another candidate.

Everyone should vote for who they want to, even if they vote for folks I disagree with. That's the great thing about our system.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

5. A vote for Johnson or stein is a vote for Johnson or stein.

Any other argument is simply mistaken.

[bigwillq]

6. That's what I'm saying.

I agree 100 percent. We all love democracy ..... But only if you vote for my candidate. Lol

[ericson00]

7. What about pragmatism? The art of the possible?

[bigwillq]

8. Sure, folks should vote that way if they want

Fine by me. But if others don't want to, also fine with me. That's democracy. We all get 1 vote, we should use it how we want.

[Demsrule86]

12. Fine but acknowledge that such voters do not care for their fellow Americans

who will be persecuted under Trump...and when they find out that voting is no longer needed ( with the courts stacked votes won't matter) if Trump wins for thirty years or more...I hope such voters understand the price paid by others for their incredibly selfish act of voting for anyone other than Hillary. It is Hillary or Trump-one will win...voting for greens or any third party is a privileged selfish thing to do and only helps Trump.

[bigwillq]

14. It really doesn't matter if one lives in a deep blue or deep red state

I can never vote again and the DEMs will still win my state.

[Demsrule86]

10. It is a vote for Trump...any vote other than for Hillary is a vote for Trump.

I would have hoped 2000 and 2004 would have made people realize that the third parties are a GOP trap for Democrats.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

17. I Grok what you say, but I disagree

Please explain to me just why trump is so close, and even ahead in some polls.

[Demsrule86]

22. Why was Romney supposedly so close?

I think early polls are meaningless. And I also thing the media wants a horserace.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

24. could be.

But heck, last night was bloody great.

Michelle was fantastic. Liz kicked major league ass. Bernie berned down the house.

[DanTex]

9. That's meaningless rhetoric.

Sure, a vote for Trump is, in a sense, a "vote for democracy." It's also a vote for a racist sociopath.

And a vote for Jill Stein is a vote for Trump. All it can accomplish is making Trump more likely to be president.

[Demsrule86]

13. I thought that DU was a place

that advocated for people to vote Democratic as it is a Democratic site.

[bigwillq]

15. I would hope most folks vote D

But their vote is their vote, and they should do with it what they wish.

[onenote]

18. People can bite as the wish

But they should understand the consequences of their votes. You don't get a free pass for a vote that doesn't maximize the chances that trump will be defeated. And hopefully defeated by a margin that discredits his brand of hate.

[Demsrule86]

23. Advocating a vote for a different candidate than Hillary on DU

is wrong. Do what you want , but don't try to help elect a non-Democrat.

[Zynx]

19. Not quite. Votes reflect an underlying intent of a desired outcome.

Since it's not plausible that the third parties can win, if your second choice is one of the two major parties, you're enabling the other major party's candidate's victory.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

11. If you are anywhere from the center to the left on the political spectrum, they are.

If it is someone is far right who would never vote for Hillary in their life regardless and goes third party, I'd say they are more like votes for her.

[DanTex]

16. A vote for Stein is a vote for Trump, no doubt.

Gary Johnson could go either way. Democrats who vote Gary Johnson are helping Trump, but Republicans voting Gary Johnson help Hillary.

[ericson00]

20. bump for today's poll result

we need to help start a grassroots movement to get Johnson and/or Stein to drop out, endorse Hillary, and close shop.

[glennward]

21. Obviously neither of them care much about what happens to the country.

If they did, they would join a major party and work hard to implement the changes they want to see. There is a much better chance for achieving their goals inside than outside...neither has anything to offer but a place to vote for Trump without feeling dirty for doing it.