Trump got a 10 point Convention bounce

[BlueStateLib]

CNN/ORC POLL

Sunday, July 24 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton CNN/ORC Clinton 45, Trump 48
Sunday, July 17 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton CNN/ORC Clinton 49, Trump 42

[pnwmom]

1. He actually got a 6 point bounce, the difference between his 42 before and 48 now.

You don't add in her 4 point drop -- that's double counting.

[BlueStateLib]

4. -7 to +3

[L. Coyote]

25. And even that with a Yuuuge margin of error! And just in this poll. Not in others.

[Funtatlaguy]

2. Americans have been so dumbed down.

I know these numbers won't hold long.
But, THAT Convention getting a 10 point bounce is mind boggling.

[Mc Mike]

5. Right, it was a complete disaster, flub after flub, unforced error after unforced error.

But corporate media tells us it was very 'convincing' and 'effective'. Bull crap. He couldn't even get the hard core g o pee in line, but the fascist bellowing at his convention convinced a big swath of independents, anyway, sez CNN.

[treestar]

21. It really is hard to believe

The electorate is not that different from the one that elected Obama - 8 years would have more younger voters and fewer of the older generation too.

[Mc Mike]

36. You're right. I saw a TPM analysis on that.

The repugs can't make a convincing argument that Obama '08/'12 voters are suddenly going to switch over to dRumpf '16.

They can lie via poll to influence opinion, not reflect opinion, and they can steal it electronically if we don't get out in large numbers to say how much America hates the nazi.

[RonniePudding]

18. Many are ready to surrender to fascism

This is what happens when a culture becomes anti intellectual and conditioned to blame others (immigrants and brown people) for their own shortcomings.

[FSogol]

3. Too little from Trumpy. His convention was a disaster and that will evaporate this week. n/t

[chillfactor]

6. and that will change...

after this week which is one reason why I am glad the rnc went first

[Demsrule86]

7. I don't believe it personally

And the Trump/Putin connection is going to be big. Do you ever posts good news for Democrats?

[NurseJackie]

8. "Do you ever posts good news for Democrats?"

There are a small subset of hangers-on for whom this type of passive-aggressive behavior and attitude have become a substitute for obvious smears against our nominee. The new rules here have been good at minimizing most of the anti-Hillary attacks, so the last remaining "allowable" method is to wander around posting Gloomy-Gus and Nervous-Nellie posts.

Gloom, despair, agony, and deep dark depression.

[woolldog]

9. Do you propose that the board ignore all polls where HRC is losing?

[MyNameGoesHere]

11. I only see 6 or 7 posters who continually

Post the negative polls exclusively. If it's good polls they are concerned it's not a large enough margin. It is all very predictable. Actually those posts are more accurate than polls for identifying intent.

[NurseJackie]

13. GMAB! Read it again. Look closely, Woolldog, and you'll see that the observations were ...

... with regard to a small subset of individuals who only post such things. It's easy to see what they're up to and what motivates them.

Do you propose that the board ignore all polls where HRC is losing?

No. But ignoring the individuals who post exclusively these types of stories (and their defenders) would be a good start.

[Demsrule86]

10. Exactly right.

I don't understand when the consequence of Hillary losing is Trump.

[B Calm]

12. Complacency is our biggest enemy here.

[doc03]

15. The media will ignore Puti, besides most people won't even understand it. Americans

have heard nothing but Hillary's e-mails for a year, they will if anything connect her with this.

[DemonGoddess]

14. uhhh

It's a six point bounce, not ten, and certainly not unexpected after a convention. Even one as abysmal as theirs was last week.

It's funny how you and a couple other doom and gloomers ALWAYS ignore the demographics.

[yeoman6987]

34. There were a lot of OPs reminding us this would happen last week

Most agreed that we should not worry about it that it's normal. But here we are forgetting all those OPs already. Two weeks from now polls will tell the story more clearly.

[MohRokTah]

16. A single poll does NOT a bounce make.

This is a single poll and is indicative of nothing in that context.

[Johnny2X2X]

17. Have to get it back this week

The hiring of DWS was perhaps the stupidest thing she could have done. Plays right into the Trump narrative about her of being crooked in a rigged system. Thu should have at least waited a couple weeks. Dumb.

[geek tragedy]

30. she wasn't hired. she was given a symbolic position to ease her out of the position. nt

[Johnny2X2X]

33. Just as bad to the public

The public will view this as a golden parachute. They should have waited a few weeks, especially if it's just symbolic, why the urgency?

It's a potentially very damaging mistake.

[book_worm]

19. And now we are having our convention and HRC will have a bounce.

[Doctor Jack]

20. You got to look at the averages, not just one poll

Hardly unexpected though. Right now the averages still have him down by about 0.5 points, so right around 2.5 to 3 point bounce. Even McCain had a fairly solid lead after the RNC in 2008. At this point post convention in 2008, he was up by almost 3 points. No biggie

Here, listen to some George Harrison. It always puts me in a good mood

[regnaD kciN]

32. The problem is…

…that this is the first major post-convention poll. That "average" is combining it with a whole bunch of pre-convention ones. Unless we see other post-convention (and, particularly, post-speech) polls from reliable organizations showing HRC with a continuing lead over Der Führ-hair, we have to give these results the benefit of the doubt.

[yeoman6987]

35. I actually think Cruz caused some to finally support trump

Most Americans don't like the candidate embarrassed like that. Hillary will get a huge bump this week to. Some are trying to indirectly embarrass Hillary and again America voters hate that.

[Fast Walker 52]

22. it's a complete disgrace, but it was to be expected

[L. Coyote]

23. You ignore how lame this poll is, sampling error 3.5% is not worth paying attention to.

With your method, you have to double that since both numbers are off by that much if not more. Is it a 90% confidence, 95%? If 90%, then we have a 10% confidence the 3.5% isn't enough.

Please go elsewhere with your Trump ad.

[Darb]

24. Hogwash, Hillary will win by 10, it's baked in and over.

All the rest is just the kooks hollering and the media feeding them.

[Mike Nelson]

26. Yay...

48 to 45... a statistical "tie" after your convention is not good!

[artyteacher]

27. i seriously find this hard to believe..

... With that hot mess...


They must be playing with the internals...

[runaway hero]

28. Like I said

Hillary will win the election.


But it will be close.

[geek tragedy]

29. naked appeals to the racism and fear of dumbfuck uneducated white voters still work nt

[CrowCityDem]

31. You can't be losing AAs and Latinos like Trump is and actually win. Whites oversampled much?