There is an OP that is saying Nate projects Donald to win. IT IS A LIE.

[Squinch]

Nate has Hillary winning 53.9% to 46.1%

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

[redstatebluegirl]

1. Why can't we get the op hidden?

[Cosmocat]

2. I saw that, its reversed?

?

[Squinch]

6. Nope. The numbers aren't close.

[UtahLib]

3. Thanks for the clarification.

We're seeing some despicable behavior on this site.

[M_Demo_M]

4. It wasn't a lie, but thankfully it has been updated.

I checked earlier today and Nate had Trump at 285 Electoral votes. Must have gotten new data. It's still way too close.

[Make7]

5. FiveThirtyEight has three forecast models - the 'Now' forecast has Trump ahead:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

[Squinch]

8. The OP says it has Donald projected to win.

[Squinch]

13. But the OP said that Donald was projected to win. This is not true.

[Make7]

17. Is that the OP that ends with:

[div class="excerpt" style="margin-right:3px; border:1px solid #bfbfbf; border-radius:0.4615em; box-shadow:-1px -1px 3px #bfbfbf inset;"]But in the the polls-plus equation, which Silver seems to think the most accurate, Clinton still has a 57.8% chance of being our next President.

[Squinch]

21. In the small print. After the big honking headline that says Donald is winning. And then an

article about how Donald is winning. When in fact he's losing.

Yep. That one.

[brooklynite]

7. You misunderstand...

Nate has THREE models: "polls only" and "polls plus" which give Clinton a hire probability of winning, and a "NowCast" which projects that Trump would win IF THE ELECTION WAS HELD TODAY.

[Squinch]

10. Yes, and the OP said that Nate was projecting Donald to win.

[Matt_in_STL]

9. I just pulled it up, as quoted in the other OP, and it shows Trump up on vote % and electoral votes

This is the nowcast which is referenced in the other op and takes more than polling into account.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

[Squinch]

11. It is the nowcast, but the OP says that Nate is projecting Donald to win. He isn't.

[Scuba]

12. K&R

[still_one]

14. The source they used in that OP was salon

http://www.salon.com/2016/07/25/shock_poll_nate_silvers_election_forecast_now_has_trump_winning/

and Salon did NOT provide a direct link to 538, as you did:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Salon also has an extreme bias against Hillary

[Squinch]

16. Then Salon and the OP wish to create the same confusion. Nate forecasts Hillary to win. Still.

[still_one]

18. I agree. Salon has an extreme bias against Hillary, and I believe this was intentional on their

part.

You post of course was a DIRECT LINK to Nate Silver's site

Thanks Squinch

[Squinch]

19. I am so frickin' tired of this shit. You are welcome.

[still_one]

22. Here is Silver's Twitter page, and his Poll+ reverse the Salon numbers

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

I am not sure if I agree with his analysis completely, however, I think waiting until the Convention is over, and the campaign starts to swing into action is right on.

As is typical of Salon, they will of course put emphasis on the negative if it is in regard to Hillary, and then mention the polls+

[Demsrule86]

20. It came from Salon

I should have known.