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Wed Jul 27, 2016, 09:44 AM

Electoral-vote.com has map data up!

www.electoral-vote.com

19 replies, 1425 views

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Arrow 19 replies Author Time Post
Reply Electoral-vote.com has map data up! (Original post)
LongtimeAZDem Jul 2016 OP
writes3000 Jul 2016 #1
writes3000 Jul 2016 #2
Sheepshank Jul 2016 #3
Blue Idaho Jul 2016 #4
LongtimeAZDem Jul 2016 #5
Blue Idaho Jul 2016 #6
Tatiana Jul 2016 #7
LongtimeAZDem Jul 2016 #8
Tatiana Jul 2016 #9
LongtimeAZDem Jul 2016 #10
Tatiana Jul 2016 #16
bigwillq Jul 2016 #11
LongtimeAZDem Jul 2016 #13
bigwillq Jul 2016 #14
auntpurl Jul 2016 #12
DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2016 #15
Jim Lane Jul 2016 #19
Cosmocat Jul 2016 #17
Maeve Jul 2016 #18

Response to LongtimeAZDem (Original post)

Wed Jul 27, 2016, 09:51 AM

1. Nice!!! Thanks.

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Response to LongtimeAZDem (Original post)

Wed Jul 27, 2016, 09:52 AM

2. That NC is likely blue is interesting.

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Response to LongtimeAZDem (Original post)

Wed Jul 27, 2016, 09:56 AM

3. Trump is going to eat this...big time.

 

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Response to LongtimeAZDem (Original post)

Wed Jul 27, 2016, 09:59 AM

4. But, but, but... The media!

"Horse race! Dead heat! Neck and neck!!!!!!" Think about the ad revenue the M$M will all lose if they start telling the truth!

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Response to Blue Idaho (Reply #4)

Wed Jul 27, 2016, 10:03 AM

5. That's why I watch EV and 538, and drink whisky

keeps me calm through the season

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Response to LongtimeAZDem (Reply #5)

Wed Jul 27, 2016, 10:04 AM

6. Excellent Plan! nt.

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Response to LongtimeAZDem (Original post)

Wed Jul 27, 2016, 10:15 AM

7. I like this map. We need Pennsylvania and Michigan.

I also think North Carolina is more purple than blue right now, but we can win it. I also think we have a shot at Arizona.

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Response to Tatiana (Reply #7)

Wed Jul 27, 2016, 10:17 AM

8. We have a chance with AZ; I think a lot of women will cross over, and

there could be a significant amount of Republican apathy, unless we make guns the central issue.

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Response to LongtimeAZDem (Reply #8)

Wed Jul 27, 2016, 10:22 AM

9. MCain is in a tough fight there.

And he's also not lifting a finger to support the Republican ticket.

The state is ripe for the taking. You're right. Women will be the key here: the very demographic Bill addressed last night.

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Response to Tatiana (Reply #9)

Wed Jul 27, 2016, 10:25 AM

10. I'll be doing my best to help get out the vote; we Dems have a bad record here

in terms of voter turnout.

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Response to LongtimeAZDem (Reply #10)

Wed Jul 27, 2016, 10:31 AM

16. Bless you! AZ can do it. 2016 may be the Year of the Woman

It is a good time for Kirkpatrick to be running for Senate, especially if Hillary Clinton has coattails.

Also, I Grijalva is a national treasure. There is a lot to be positive about in AZ.

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Response to LongtimeAZDem (Original post)

Wed Jul 27, 2016, 10:25 AM

11. My state (CT) is likely DEM

 

Last map I saw it was strongly DEM. Interesting.

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Response to bigwillq (Reply #11)

Wed Jul 27, 2016, 10:29 AM

13. I think to be "strong" on EV the spread has to be at least 10 points (nt)

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Response to LongtimeAZDem (Reply #13)

Wed Jul 27, 2016, 10:30 AM

14. Ok. Thanks for the info. (Nt)

 

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Response to LongtimeAZDem (Original post)

Wed Jul 27, 2016, 10:28 AM

12. Presumably this is post-RNC bounce, and pre-DNC bounce?

If so, that looks pretty damned good.

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Response to LongtimeAZDem (Original post)

Wed Jul 27, 2016, 10:31 AM

15. One thing about that poll is they don't average but use the last poll released to award a state.

That is a problem to me.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #15)

Wed Jul 27, 2016, 05:10 PM

19. No, he averages.

 

It only looks like the last poll governs because there have still been so few polls.

His algorithm is explained here: "The most recent poll is always used, and, if any other polls were taken within a week of it, they are all averaged together."

When polls are coming thick and fast, more will be used. For example, check out this page from October 21, 2012, and mouse over each state. There wasn't much interest in polling Hawaii so the site was still using a poll from September 28. Minnesota had two polls counted, so the projection was shown to be based on "Survey USA+PPP". For Florida, the main map says only "Six polls", there being too many to fit in the little box, but you can left-click on Florida and see all the poll results throughout the campaign.

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Response to LongtimeAZDem (Original post)

Wed Jul 27, 2016, 10:36 AM

17. Disappointing on the senate

nm

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Response to LongtimeAZDem (Original post)

Wed Jul 27, 2016, 10:37 AM

18. Still think Ohio is going to go blue

Especially if the Trumpeter keeps talking!

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