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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWhat I'm hearing from Independents re the Convention
For those who watched, Bloomberg and Obama speeches were huge. Enough to sway them. Expect a large Clinton bounce following the convention.
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What I'm hearing from Independents re the Convention (Original Post)
woolldog
Jul 2016
OP
I have been a life long Democrat, but I can say if Donald Trump was the DNC nomineeIwould not be
Thinkingabout
Jul 2016
#6
It's hard to see how anyone could have a problem choosing a candidate this election.
unitedwethrive
Jul 2016
#7
Avalux
(35,015 posts)1. David Brooks, conservative journalist, said this on PBS last night.....
"There are so many A+ speeches at this convention. The bounce will be way above the curve."
I expect we will be very pleased.
TexasProgresive
(12,157 posts)4. I hope Brook's got it right this week
Last week he was sure tRump would get minimal bounce after the RNC. I know one thing, Brooks may not admit it publically but I think he will vote for Hillary Clinton. He is so fussed about tRump.
sofa king
(10,857 posts)8. Brooks was right
But Trumps convention bounce is not all that large. You can find polls showing almost no bounce for Trump, and others showing gains in the mid-to-high single digits. Those disagreements are pretty normal and, overall, the polls suggest a net gain of 3 to 4 percentage points for Trump. That would be right in line with the average bounce in conventions since 2004, although it is toward the small side by historical standards.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-our-model-is-bullish-on-trump-for-now/
On the small side of history, where he shall forever remain.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-our-model-is-bullish-on-trump-for-now/
On the small side of history, where he shall forever remain.
woolldog
(8,791 posts)5. did not know that.
Thanks.
ailsagirl
(22,893 posts)2. A well-deserved and APPROPRIATE bounce!!! One that MAKES SENSE!! n/t
Wounded Bear
(58,645 posts)3. Normally don't care a lot about the post convention bounce....
but I sure hope it happens. Would love to see a double digit boost to compare to the dead cat bounce the Repubs got.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)6. I have been a life long Democrat, but I can say if Donald Trump was the DNC nomineeIwould not be
able to vote for him. In listening to the DNC convention speakers I am sold on the idea Trump needs to be defeated
unitedwethrive
(1,997 posts)7. It's hard to see how anyone could have a problem choosing a candidate this election.