538 nowcast has hillary leading the popular vote

[unblock]

though still trailing in electoral votes and probability of win.

the polls and polls-plus models have a more comforting view, with hillary ahead in popular vote, electoral votes, and probability of winning.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

[bluedye33139]

1. Where's the concern!

just kidding

[unblock]

5. see post #2 lol!

[Dawgs]

2. This is going to go down to the wire.

I'm really concerned about Ohio and Florida.

[aikoaiko]

3. In some ways it shocks me that its so close and in some ways its the same old same old

I take heart that Democrats have a very strong foundation this election cycle and Republicans do not.

Of course Trump is a wild card that can and will exploit any situation in unexpected ways.

[Music Man]

4. I was reading last night Nate Silver's analysis of their forecasts.

Their model has taken into account Clinton's general slide in the month of July. There are a variety of factors including James Comey's critical comments and several violent events creating a sense of unrest, so in spite of a very good DNC, the past month or so really hasn't been a good one for Clinton.

We're back to equilibrium now. Both conventions done and both running mates picked. I think Silver himself would say Clinton is still the favorite, but nothing is guaranteed.

Although I'm with you that it still makes me nervous. Why should it be this close? But ultimately, I hope cooler voting heads will prevail, the Clinton team will be smart, and the demographics will play out in our favor.

[unblock]

6. silver would say clinton is stronger than merely being the favorite. polls-plus has her at 61.7%

she's a strong favorite.

poll-plus is a predictive model; the now-cast is not a predictive model, it's just says what the result would be if the election were somehow, suddenly held today instead of november. his own faq says it's particularly useless around convention time. the conventions have a big temporary effect, and at the moment the rnc effect is fully baked in while the dnc effect hasn't fully shown up yet.

i personally think that, despite the media's best efforts at drama, clinton will have a pretty consistent lead from here through the election.

i don't even think trump could possibly get a debate bounce. his best chance would normally be to get in a good zinger, but he's already played that card a thousand times. "you're no jack kennedy" was memorable because bentsen didn't routinely go around putting everyone down, so when he did it to quayle after quayle tried to compare himself to jfk it had tremendous effect. if trump does that in the debates by then it will just be more of the same.

[Cosmocat]

7. There is nothing in the polling now reflecting the convention

so we will see on that.

But, Comey did a big time hit job on her, and the runs of shootings and terrorist attacks ...

We need that shit to slow down a LOT.

I think 90% of it is and was complete bullshit, but Hillary has taken so much shit for so long, she is "brittle" so to speak, and more vulnerable to slipping if there is too much going on.

[pnwmom]

8. Why are you zeroing in on the least important measure? The "now cast" vote?

In polls that were all conducted before the convention?

[unblock]

9. because there were quite a number of posts when trump took the lead

just pointing out that even those who panicked at that point can breathe easier.

i agree that the now-cast is silly, especially around convention time.

[Demsrule86]

10. That is one model...she is ahead in others

[democrattotheend]

11. It has Trump winning Nevada?

That doesn't seem right to me. Obama won there by 10 points in 2008 and 6 points in 2012 and I can't imagine a Republican like Trump doing better than McCain and Romney did in a state with a large Latino population. What gives?