Talk me down

[jimlup]

Where is our convention bounce? Is it still too early to be reflected in the polling averages? Or is it something else that isn't reflected in this averaging?

I'm getting alarmed. If we are not 5 points up by August 6th we are in trouble.... Please tell me I'm wrong and have just not seen the trends yet.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

[question everything]

1. Trump Reeling As Clinton Gets 10 Point Democratic Convention Bounce And 15 Point Lead

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/07/30/trump-reeling-clinton-10-point-democratic-convention-bounce-15-point-lead.html

[athena]

2. It's been two days since the convention.

Two days. One business day.

Instead of asking us to convince you that there is nothing to worry about, please convince us that this OP is not concern-trolling.

[AgadorSparticus]

7. No kidding. This OP is ridiculous...

[jimlup]

9. It is not

I'm honestly concerned. Maybe I'm guilty of watching the polls too closely but I'm certainly not trolling.

[athena]

13. OK. Please just try not to worry.

I worry, too, sometimes. The fact that Trump is polling at over 5% greatly disturbs me. The fact that he was polling better than Hillary just before the DNC was very upsetting. But worrying doesn't help. We had an amazing convention, and we have a great candidate. We need to just do all we can (i.e., donate and volunteer) to make sure she wins this.

[rjsquirrel]

27. Exactly

The polls Next week are what matter.

[MFM008]

3. 6 up

And more to come.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. The only polls conducted AFTER the Convention show her up FIVE and FIFTEEN.

The latter poll is all post-Convention, The former poll isn't:



http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton

[lapfog_1]

6. KHAN!!!!!

In his best Captain Kirk voice

[awake]

5. Ok stay calm just walk away from the ledge everything will be alright

Just remember Trump really does not want the Job he just likes the spotlight. Maybe if you did a bit of work therapy like say helping with Hillary's campaign or raising funds $27 at a time that might help.

[jimlup]

10. I am a regular contributor to the DNC

and have done my share of footwork.

Just 'say'n

[awake]

14. Just trying to talk you off the ledge

No harm ment.

[tandem5]

8. Via bullhorn: This is detective Robertson of the DUPD statistics division. Let's say you and I

make sense of these cross tabs together. Down here. On the ground. Whatayousay buddy?


Look I get it. You don't want to talk. I've got two reluctant respondents at home in the 18-25 myself. We all have troubles, you know? My 40-49 post graduate wife and I have gone through rough patches, but our love and love of life has always been outside the margin of error!

[jimlup]

11. Not sure what you are trying to say to me

but I'm definitely not in the 18 - 25 age category.

Maybe I'm just nervous. And because of the internet 24 hour cycle I may be following to closely. ... but the Donald is too much of a risk for me to be comfortable. The earliest election that I remember was Johnson/Goldwater so I've seen my share.

[tandem5]

17. Okay if you want the serious answer...

If you are alarmed then you don't need to be talked down as your feet our firmly planted on the ground. If you want momentary catharsis from a positive poll then I can relate to that, but don't let that turn into complacency. I wouldn't care if she were polling 20 points ahead in every state. Trump should not have gotten this far and that fact should keep us eternally sober.

[athena]

19. Now that you've explained it,

that was a great post! Very funny. This one is a good post, too.

[tandem5]

25. hey thanks!

[BlueStateLib]

12. Look for Monday 9am EST CNN/ORC POLL

[woolldog]

16. Not to worry.

This should be the bottom. We're about a week past the RNC. Poll averages, which are lagging indicators, are fully factoring in Trump's bounce, but not Clinton's DNC bounce. Clinton's DNC bounce should more than make up the difference. Only a couple of post DNC polls have come out. Not enough to move the poll averages much, but they show that Clinton should get a good bounce in the polls that will be coming out over the next week or so. Hold on for about 4-5 days. After two weeks or so both conventions should be fully factored in.

[NCTraveler]

18. Not trying to be an ass.

But there is no way to talk this type of political observer down.

"If we are not 5 points up by August 6th we are in trouble"

Even if there was a chance, we might learn Clinton stubbed her toe on the eighth and we will be right back in the same position.

[Ilsa]

20. Polls didn't reflect Trump's puny bounce until Wednesday. NT

[Demsrule86]

21. Your concern is duly noted. nt

[The Second Stone]

22. Relax. Hillary Clinton has got this. Get to your local party and start

registering likely Democrats and get them out to vote in November. Opportunity of a lifetime. Us individually fretting doesn't get anyone to the polls. Asking people to go to the polls does work. I've seen it. It's the only thing that works that we can do besides donating money.

[Godhumor]

23. The 538 nowcast switched back to Hillary today

Chill.

[MineralMan]

24. Read recent threads before posting.

Had you done so, you would know about the bounce already. We don't need more panicky gloom and doom postings. Inform yourself, please.

[scheming daemons]

26. There have been *TWO* polls since the convention, and *BOTH* show a huge bounce for Hillary

This is a troll thread.

[Agnosticsherbet]

28. Clinton Opens Up Wide Lead Over Trump

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512327938

[Drunken Irishman]

29. Go with Sam Wong instead. He's much better.

http://election.princeton.edu/

[Equinox Moon]

30. My republican neighbor is voting for Hillary

She decided to after hearing O's speech. Previously, she said tRump had her vote.

She also will be putting a Hillary sign in her yard! It is complete turnaround, because of O's speech.