Clinton Opens Up Wide Lead Over Trump

[applegrove]

Clinton Opens Up Wide Lead Over Trump

https://politicalwire.com/2016/07/30/clinton-opens-up-wide-lead-over-trump/

"SNIP............

The new RABA Research tracking poll shows Hillary Clinton has opened a significant lead over Donald Trump, now leading him by 15 points, 46% to 31%, with Gary Johnson at 7% and Jill Stein sits at 2%.

A similar poll conducted the day after the Republican convention showed Clinton ahead by only five points.

.............SNIP"

[liberal N proud]

1. That could send Trump over the edge

[Doodley]

3. Thank God! My blood pressure is now back to normal!

[BigDemVoter]

4. This despite CONSTANT troll polls showing them running neck & neck.

[Zambero]

7. Those were Donald bump / pre-Hillary bump polls

Hopefully we'll see a pattern with other polls in the days ahead. As it stands with this one, give Donald back his 3% margin of error and two-thirds of undecideds, and Hillary still wins.

[oberliner]

5. This is a single online poll from a company that has only existed for a few months

And it has been repeatedly posted here.

Let's wait until Sunday/Monday when we have a full complement of polls to look at.

[Chemisse]

26. I agree. I think we're all anxious for some reassurance,

But we could be in for a letdown next week if we are sold on a 15-point lead.

[oberliner]

27. Understood

Probably a batch of polls will come out on Monday that will paint a clearer picture of where things stand right now.

Also, generally speaking, I don't think these national polls mean a whole lot at this point.

It's really all about a handful of states.

[Scurrilous]

6. K & R

[ToxMarz]

8. Trump is obsessed with polls (and winning)

If she maintains a lead like this or even increases it, I can see CONald Trump finding a reason that the Republican Party has slighted him and withdrawing from the race. I strongly believe he will NOT participate in ANY debates with her.

[Cryptoad]

11. Can the GOP remove him from the ballots?

[ToxMarz]

12. Well I don't know how that works

But I would imagine he can withdraw if he wants. Good question, if 60 million people wrote in a vote and the person was elected, is he forced to serve? I dunno.

[anamandujano]

18. I'll sign on to this.

He has wasted their time and money. If he determines he can't win, he'll let someone else take the hit. The scary thing is that the whole world will breathe a sign of relief and by comparison any of the other losers who might run will look spectacular.

I know, I know, I should change my name to Chicken Little.

[ToxMarz]

22. i could see them not running anyone and taking the hit

They wouldn't put up any of their strong candidates (and none would take the bait) as that would make them already losers in the next election. And why waste money and further embarrass themselves with someone who would even consider it (they would be shameless self promoters to even get involved).

[anamandujano]

30. That's interesting. It would be Dem against Green and whatever other party is out there.

I would love that but not holding my breath, anymore than I already am anyway.

[NewJeffCT]

9. how good is this poll?

good news, but is RABA the Democratic version of Rasmussen?

[democrattotheend]

24. I am not familiar with this pollster

I looked at their methodology, and it has a reasonable margin of error (3.2), and a reasonable sample size, 956, which is a bit small for a national poll but not outside the range of reasonable. They have a Republican partner they do it with.

On the other hand, it is an online poll and they don't explain whether anyone could participate or whether people were selected for it. I am also skeptical of a purely online poll, because it probably undercounts seniors or skews toward more technically literate seniors. Most reputable pollsters will supplement online surveys with some phone interviews. It does not appear this was done here.

That said, even if there are flaws with a poll's methodology, assuming the methodology used is consistent across polls, they can be useful for measuring trends if not the actual vote.

[treestar]

10. that's more like it

Even the Rs don't want Trump, most of them. Anyone can tell by his temperament that he would suck as POTUS and embarrass us before the world.

[mountain grammy]

13. I think he will continue to meltdown.

[onecent]

31. I hope you are right!!! Love your name....lol

[anamandujano]

14. The important thing we have to mention whenever the numbers look this good,

especially when we get closer to Nov, is that it's not real until we vote.

I know that's obvious but I get the same fear whenever a poll favoring Dems is posted.

[applegrove]

16. I totally agree. We should not be complacent. We need to be in this until

the very day of the vote.

[anamandujano]

20. This should be a constant refrain of all Dems, especially Hillary.

"Let's make it real by voting" or words to that effect.

[nikto]

15. Really? Wow. That was fast. Hope it holds, or increases.

Thank God.

[applegrove]

17. Apparently it is not the most scientific of polls.

[StraightRazor]

19. I thought polls (especially online polls) were meaningless...

I guess that rule of thumb only applies to polls that reflect desired outcomes.

This poll represents what the numbers 'should' be, but they're not.

[tavernier]

21. I wish...

but i heard today that Nate's numbers have Trump closing in and that scares me.

Damned predictors!!!

[MFM008]

28. I see that

He goes up every day.
I want to hear WHY.
Silver already missed a couple predictions.
Maybe we'll hear more next week.

[Politicub]

23. yasss!

[Skid Rogue]

25. This election is totally unpredictable....

but with a margin like that we could easily take back the Senate.... and put a big dent in the House.

[Cha]

29. Steady as she goes, Hillary.. and we'll work like we're 20 points behind!

[applegrove]

32. +1