So, after the last 24 hours, what are the odds that Trump LITERALLY goes crazy?

[renie408]

I don't think he is going to make it. The campaign just started for real YESTERDAY and he is already melting down. Unless they up his meds, he is going to flame out way before November.

He was doing GREAT when it was all fucknuts Republicans cheering him on and the press was intrigued enough with him to ignore his worst gaffes. But they are starting to poke at him and he is already starting to crack.

What happens if he gets 'sick' halfway through this thing?? What do they do? Does Pence get the nod? Do they have a Runner Up for Miss Republican? Would it be Cruz?

[radical noodle]

1. How will we be able to tell the difference?

To me, he already acts literally crazy.

[unitedwethrive]

15. Exactly!!

[Laf.La.Dem.]

2. Crazier

He is already past crazy!

[greymattermom]

3. What if he just stops doing campaign appearances

and stays in Trump Tower Tweeting. Will his tweets still get free tv time?

[renie408]

4. Maybe? Probably. They wouldn't be able to resist.

But what do they DO if their nominee is...umm...unable to perform his duties??

[prarie deem]

5. I don't think

unable to perform his duties is not a new state of mind for the Orange peril. But I do agree, I think he is getting more frenzied every day.

[Get.Real.Now]

6. Do you mean Electile disfunction? nt

[renie408]

7. HA HA!! That was GREAT!! n/t

[blaze]

8. Seriously. What *does* happen if he gets "sick" before the election?

Is there any precedent for replacing a running candidate?

[renie408]

9. Right?

Does it go to Pence? Or Cruz? Or does the RNC just pick somebody?

[relayerbob]

12. Closest is Eagleton for VP 1972

[sofa king]

17. Yes.

I'll have to come back and edit this post with better citations, but the short version is that both parties have provisions for the drop-out of a candidate in between the nomination and the election.

The basic idea is that we vote for electors who in turn elect the President, and while each state has slightly different election laws, it will be possible to change the candidate, if not the name on the ballot. Then it is up to the (Republican, totally untrustworthy) elector to seal the deal.

So what happens is the Party committee, in this case the RNC, can meet and select a successor candidate in fairly short order. I believe this is still covered under Rule 9 of the Republican Party rules, but they're not exactly forthcoming with a public copy of their rules, surprise surprise.

http://teachinghistory.org/history-content/ask-a-historian/20431

You may note that this is EXACTLY what the RNC has wanted all year, so there will be no trouble from them if Trump decides (or is "persuaded&quot to leave the race. And, there are a multitude of ways that Trump can save his narcissistic self-esteem on exit: blaming ill health, claiming he's served his purpose and his interests have moved back to ripping people off, whatever, the excuse matters not at all compared to getting him the fuck out....

As soon as he's gone, the RNC will almost certainly start with Paul Ryan, but whether Ryan (not a little bit of a narcissist himself, but a smarter one) will accept the offer is another matter entirely.

Edit: Here are the Republican Rules, and note Rule 9 in particular. Also recall that one Jeb Bush is still sitting on a mountain of campaign donations that he may not have totally blown yet....

https://s3.amazonaws.com/prod-static-ngop-pbl/docs/Rules_of_the_Republican+Party_FINAL_S14090314.pdf

[vinny9698]

10. Fatigue is setting in. Trump has not worked hard all his life.

The man has had a sheltered life, a life of luxury all his life. This is probably the most hard work he has ever done. He won't do bus tours, to uncomfortable, he won't prepare for speeches nor debates, to lazy, name calling and shouting "I am the only ONE to 'Make America Great Again' are his only positions and policies.
When one gets fatigue, one begins to making snap decisions.

http://www.ccohs.ca/oshanswers/psychosocial/fatigue.html


Because fatigue cannot be "measured", it is difficult to separate the effects of long working hours or lack of sleep to any changes in accident or injury rates.

However, studies report the effects of fatigue as:

reduced decision making ability,
reduced ability to do complex planning,
reduced communication skills,
reduced productivity / performance,
reduced attention and vigilance,
reduced ability to handle stress on the job,
reduced reaction time - both in speed and thought,
loss of memory or the ability to recall details,
failure to respond to changes in surroundings or information provided,
unable to stay awake (e.g., falling asleep while operating machinery or driving a vehicle),
increased tendency for risk-taking,
increased forgetfulness,
increased errors in judgement,
increased sick time, absenteeism, rate of turnover,
increased medical costs, and
increased accident rates.

[relayerbob]

11. I've posed the same question

No one really knows what they will do, not really any precedents. The closest was Eagleton was who forced to resign from the rave in 1972, but as a VP pick, McGovern could make another selection. The Presidential spot's quite different. Also, there was no evidence hat Eagleton was actively mentally ill, only that he had had serious issues, while if Trump gets dragged off a debate flooring foaming at the mouth, then it's hard to say what will happen. The thing is Hillary knows how to get under his skin and did so on TVC the other night with the No you don't Donald line right at the screen. The one thing I think everyone would agree to, after seeing her in the Benghazi witch trial and in other appearances over many years is her ability to be ruthless. The only bad part is if she pushes it too far, then he will be a martyr. I suspect she'll be sharpening up the blades between then and now, but with a full court press from the group that was on prime time all week .... I think there is a very high chance he will lose it for real.

[blaze]

14. And then he gets replaced by a much more "acceptable" candidate and at the last minute,

it's a whole new ball game and anti-Trump GOPers willing to go back to their party.

[relayerbob]

19. then we take out the whole party

"Can you really trust a party this disorganized, this out of touch with the government? Look at the real facts, and suddenly a bunch of people who have been buried in noise will see their cognitive dissonance and either stay home or go third party. Some may suddenly vote for Pence or Cru or whoever (those would be the two most likely), but there would be no campaign, it would be chaos, alll up and down the ticket

[The Second Stone]

13. He has Narcissistic Personality Disorder

for which there are no medications or effective treatment. He has to pull himself together as to how others see him, which someone with NPD should be able to accomplish. He just doesn't want to.

[sofa king]

16. Agreed. He may be approaching a "moment of clarity."

They do have them, moments of humanity in a lifetime of inhumane behavior. So the moments of deep introspection and regret can be crushing. Narcissists' self-esteem is particularly fragile and (this is just my opinion now) they seem particularly vulnerable to ridicule.

However, whatever is happening has to go much deeper than the public ridicule to which he has been subjected this week. Most people mean nothing at all to him and he can use their anger toward him as self-reinforcement.

I think he's staring down the barrel of very serious federal charges for his public entreaties to the Russians and his apparent leak of PDB info on the first day that he got one. Nobody seems to agree with me yet, but I've read 18 USC ss 793 and Trump seems to have pissed on it at least twice this week.

This thrashing about may be him having a tantrum because he's on the wrong end of one of his own "deals": take an ignoble exit now or face the infinitely worse prospect of a fast-track espionage case, with life in prison on the table.

https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/793

[relayerbob]

20. Well, partly

The thing about Saudi Arabia, if it actually is something that was real and not just some bluster (the basis for people thinking that is important is that we all think that's what he was told. If not, then he's just full of hot air as usual), then yes, he's stepped really deep in it. As far as the asking Russia to hack won't be considered as any more of a serious threat than his assertion he can shoot someone in the streets of NY and his ratings would go up. What will be more interesting will be the fact that he's going to have people crawling all over his financials to find money trails back to Russia and others. When they find pay dirt ... and they will, may already have ... shit's gonna get real.

[sofa king]

21. Yeah, I can agree with that.

My guess is a "what's in the box" speculation that only thumps when we shake it. But when I take everything together, I feel like I sense a big old piece of poo in there.

We shall see. If he really is going to leave, I think he'll likely save the resignation for a Friday.

[relayerbob]

23. It may well be in the middle of a debate

[The Second Stone]

22. If the Republicans wanted to get rid of him, these would be the charges for

them to bring now, while there is time to replace him. The Democrats are not going to have their people press this issue and look like they are using the judicial/political system to witch hunt him and get him sympathy, nor are they going to take out the worst candidate the Republicans could possibly have come up with as they see it as a political gift. Maybe after the election.

[TheBaculumKing]

18. Watch the Value of His Brand

Much of his "worth" is the value of the Trump brand, which has to be falling by the day.

If the bleeding gets too bad look for Malaria and Ivanka to find a way to stop the flow, which would require shutting him up.

[John Poet]

24. What are the odds that Trump isn't literally crazy now?

Seems so to me.