Today's Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Trump and Clinton tied

[oberliner]

When Johnson and Stein are included.

A separate Reuters/Ipsos survey that provided respondents with the option to choose from Clinton, Trump, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, has Clinton and Trump tied at 37 percentage points.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN1092M5

[TeddyR]

1. Yep

The race is going to stay close. PA and OH have me worried.

[oberliner]

2. Agreed

Hopefully non-white voters will turn out in large numbers in those states.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

3. PEC has OH at over 80% chance Dem and PA at over 95% chance today

[oberliner]

9. Here's hoping she can hold VA, NC, OH, PA

Might be a tough fight for some of those.

[Wounded Bear]

16. Meh, I don't see VA or PA as really problems...

The campaign is working PA right now. She's a lock in Philly and Pitts, if she can soften the opposition in some of the areas in between, it's a lock.

VA has been going blue for a while. Kaine should seal the deal there.

[oberliner]

21. Yes, OH and NC are definitely a lot scarier

In fact, I can't really see how we take North Carolina given the political climate there these days.

[geek tragedy]

30. after the votings rights decision this week Democratic chances definitely improved

turnout should be very high there

[still_one]

33. The fact that Kasich refused to endorse Trump, refused to attend the convention, and personally

predicts that trump will lose Ohio, does not bode well for trump

[DemonGoddess]

34. ^^^This!!!

[TeddyR]

14. How did PEC get those numbers?

The RCP polling average has Hillary up 0.8% in OH and the two latest polls there (though I believe both are pre-convention) have it tied. Whatever you think about Trump his message seems to be resonating with the working-class white voters in PA and OH. Even the Dem political operatives admit as much.

[the48er]

7. Nothing At All To Worry About

As a matter of fact, if it turns out that you're too bushed to stand in a voting line Nov. 8, just go on home. What's the worst that could possibly happen? It's not as if anyone's going to get gored or anything. This is all supremely inconsequential. You'd think we were courting disaster or something.

[auntpurl]

19. I see what you did there.

[the48er]

39. Dang!

Shoulda known I couldn't sneak one past my sweet ol' auntie p.

[MattP]

4. Same poll as before

6 point head to head tied with all third party

[oberliner]

5. Yes, but the "tied with all third party" is significant

It seems to have been buried in the article.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

6. Are Johnson and Stein

likely to be significant factors in this race? People would not seriously consider throwing this election to Trump, would they? Are they factoring in heavily in individual state races (which is the polling that really matters)?

[NWCorona]

8. The race shouldn't be this close

[still_one]

10. It isn't. National polls mean very little. The latest PPP National Poll with all candidates

including Stein and Johnson has Hillary ahead by 5

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

However,elections are not determined by national polls. It is by states, and national polls mislead

[oberliner]

22. That's still pretty close

Five point lead coming off a successful convention isn't that terrific.

[still_one]

31. I don't believe national polls are a reliable indicator. States polls are what counts. The

electoral college distribution is not adequately factored in, where more populated states have a larger weighting on the outcome than smaller states, and that sampling is not adequately addressed in most national polls

In addition, the impact of the Convention won't actually show up until next week. There are some preliminary trends suggesting a 10 o 15 point Convention bounce:

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/07/30/trump-reeling-clinton-10-point-democratic-convention-bounce-15-point-lead.html

but again, I don't put much value in national polls, for the reasons I gave above

There are also a lot of mixed currents difficult to poll:

It appears that moderate republicans are an unknown factor this election that I do not think can easily be determined by national polls

The NRA voting block verses the general public on gun control is difficult to determine.

How much impact will gender play in this election?

How much impact will race play in this election?

Do people want a more conservative or more liberal supreme court?

Plus so many other factors that I do not believe national polls adequately address.

Give me the individual state polls, and that will convey a more accurate picture

[oberliner]

32. Agreed

It is definitely all about the individual states. In particular, about six of them.

[still_one]

38. I think You're right,

[DemonGoddess]

37. Look at the state polls

and see where she is there, first.

[MFM008]

48. It's only been 3 days

They are still polling.
Let's see where it's at next week.
Let the Kahn comments settle in.

[book_worm]

11. And yet the Morning Consult poll has her up by 5 with all candidates included

https://morningconsult.com/2016/07/31/presidential-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump/

[Grey Lemercier]

40. thats a very good site btw

[oberliner]

57. That's not true

The Morning Consult poll does not include Jill Stein as an option.

[piechartking]

12. The trend line is moving towards Hillary and

This business with Russia and Khizr Khan will kill him. Unpatriotic, heartless, clueless, all rolled into one.

If Khizr Khan is his "47%" it will be supremely appropriate and ironic.

[TeddyR]

17. What makes you think that?

With all the offensive crap that Trump has said so far, why would another one swing the race? The Dems that think Hillary is somehow going to run away with this race aren't paying attention or are ignoring the facts. This race is close and it is going to stay close. It is fantasy to think that those who voted for Romney are going to switch to Hillary in large numbers.

[Silent3]

20. One thing that I *hope* makes a difference now...

...is that since we've fully entered the general election, and Trump's remarks are now getting more attention by the country as a whole rather than just rabid Republican primary voters, maybe just maybe the crazy and hateful and insensitive nature of the crap coming out of Trump will finally come into focus.

But yes, it's so hard to understand why that hasn't already happened that it does often seem like it might never happen.

[piechartking]

28. Trump is not Romney and he has no ground game

I believe that every offensive thing he says erodes his support, in big ways (like with Khan and the Russians) and in small ways. For example, last week he blasted the hotel that he was in - you think the poor employees of that hotel in North Carolina are going to forget that? Today he insulted the fire marshal in the place in Colorado. Great way to turn off the fire marshal and fire department.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

49. The trend line is moving toward Hillary

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton

[oberliner]

23. The Khan comments will have no impact whatsoever

If anything, it will deepen the support for him among his base.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

50. He is currently polling at 42.2% so obviously his base is not enough

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton

The Khan comments are poison to undecided voters.

[yeoman6987]

52. If he said the kahn thing in October it would stick.

July? I doubt it. It will be added to the long list of vulgar things he said. As for the Russian hack, I'd hope it's a wake up call to the Democratic Party to update their security on the webpages and listen to threats a year out when told about it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

55. It likes beating a rock with a sledge hammer...

It's not the final blow that breaks the rock but all he blows that came before...

Getting in a swearing match with Fallen Muslim American Hero Soldier Mom and Dad is not a good look.

[Wounded Bear]

56. It'll be in a Clinton commercial running in Sep/Oct...

I can pretty much guarantee that. As usual, the anti-Trump ads sort of write themselves.

Hell, just play clips of Khan's speech, and then play Trump's counter to them.

I don't really give a shit about Trump's base. They're out of reach anyway. Moderates and Indies should hear these things. There is a lot of room to collect support in the middle, especially if the Clinton economic plans get out there.

[MattP]

13. Rueters poll is from Friday part of polling is pre convention

[oberliner]

24. Actually the poll was taken during the convention

From July 25 - 29.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Every poll is a data point.

RABA had her up 15
PPP had her up 5
Morning Consult had her up 3

I expect her to be up by 5-8 points in the Huff Po agggregate by 8/8.

[oberliner]

26. RABA was an online poll from an organization that came into existence a few months ago

It should not be given the same weight as more longstanding polling outlets.

[Grey Lemercier]

41. yes RABA is nothing to hang your hat on

[DemocratSinceBirth]

46. I said every poll was a data point.

The assertion embodied in my statement was that I wasn't hanging my hat on any one poll.

[Grey Lemercier]

68. I was speaking in general not just to you

[DemocratSinceBirth]

45. And reuters had to tweak their methodolgy because their findings were incredulous

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-reutersipsos-idUSKCN10910T

[renie408]

18. Isn't it still kinda early after the convention?

And current polls haven't absorbed his straight up batshit performance on Friday.

[Wounded Bear]

27. This weekend is when we get first real look at bump...

from convention. Important points along the way.

[Princess Turandot]

25. As of 7/29, per her webpage, Stein appears to be on the ballot in 22 states...

and DC, with 4 states pending submitted-signature review. The deadline for Mo was Friday; they were still collecting signatures. PA's deadline is tomorrow. NJ's appears to be as well. (The web page does not note the states where they failed to get enough ballots; you need to click on the state name for the status, if it interests you.)
http://www.jill2016.com/ballot_access

The Libertarians are on the ballot in 36 states. The status of the others re: signature collections/deadlines are unclear, since this page solicits donations rather than help.
https://www.lp.org/2016-presidential-ballot-access-map

[oberliner]

29. Johnson will be on the ballot in all 50 states

In 2012, they were on 48.

[LisaL]

35. Because they were on 48 in 2012, doesn't necessarily mean they will be on 50

in 2016.

[oberliner]

36. That is true

But he will be on the ballot in all 50 states in 2016 according to most people who have looked into that question.

[Grey Lemercier]

42. I tend to agree, 48 to 50 again

which is a good thing, he draws from Trump mainly

[DemocratSinceBirth]

47. Could you cite the "most people who have looked into that question" ?

Thank you in advance.

[oberliner]

61. OK

From 538:

But it’s also possible (and, I would argue, probable) that because Clinton and Trump are two of the most disliked presidential candidates of all time, third-party candidates are going to do better than usual. Johnson looks especially likely to peel votes from Clinton and Trump because he will probably achieve ballot access in all 50 states, which is unusual for a non-major-party candidate.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-is-gary-johnson-taking-more-support-from-clinton-or-trump/

From NBC News:

The Libertarians, meanwhile, are on track to make the ballot in 50 states in a year where ballot access is the biggest barrier to third-party challenges.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/libertarian-party-ready-prime-time-n582351

From Huffington Post:

Johnson and Weld offer a (to borrow a phrase from this election season) YUGE alternative to the presumptive Republican nominee, businessman Donald Trump, as well as the Democrat’s presumptive nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and could potentially be an electoral threat as well, as the party is on track to be on the ballot in all 50 states in November.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/travis-irvine/could-2016-finally-be-the_b_10210756.html

[DemocratSinceBirth]

65. I made a mistake. I was referring to Jill Stein.

[molova]

43. What are the dates? You didn't say nt

[oberliner]

44. July 25- 29

Overlapping much of the convention.

[CreekDog]

53. yet convention bounces are almost never as strong or even apparent during the convention

part of the convention bounce appears after the messages are digested, after what happens in the convention gets covered, etc.

[oberliner]

54. Here's hoping her numbers continue to rise

That would be great!

[Wounded Bear]

59. Yeah, this weekend is really when the bounce should start showing....

in strength. Hopefully it's a good one. I remember seeing one where Hillary's approvals got a bounce, too. Hope that continues.

[WhiteTara]

51. So yesterday, she was up 15 points, and today they say

she is even with Drumpf, even though he was at 31 yesterday. So, does that mean that Johnson and Stein are both taking away from Clinton? Stupid polls.

[Dem2]

58. Look for dark clouds...

and ye shall find them.

[oberliner]

64. True enough

But that doesn't mean they are not there. Pretending they aren't isn't wise, in my opinion.

[Dem2]

66. A single poll does not a trend make

Morning Consult, for instance, has Hillary up 3, but up 5 including Johnson. This is a drastic change from their previous poll that had Trump +4.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/morning-consult-25023

[oberliner]

67. Agreed

But the recent batch of polls that are coming out today show a pretty close race, with Hillary having a small lead.

[Dem2]

69. CBS poll now shows a 7 point swing to Hillary

6 points including 3rd party: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/cbs-25024

Her bump is definitely more pronounced than Trumps IMO, a good sign I hope.

[LenaBaby61]

60. I'm gonna wait....

For another week or two to see how post-convention polling shakes out. Yesterday this same poll had HRC leading tRump by 15 (Didn't believe that by the way), but 24 hours later she's tied with tRump @ 37 % with 2 other candidates are thrown into the mix?po

Yeah, it's still a bit too early to take polling ultra serious right now for me.

[LAS14]

62. I must be reading something wrong. The OP...

... says they're tied, but the article referenced shows a 6 point Clinton lead. I didn't find anyone else confused, so it must just be me. Could someone explain?

[oberliner]

63. They took 2 polls, one with Stein/Johnson included, one with just Trump/Clinton

Clinton has a 6 point lead in the one that is just Trump/Clinton.

They are tied in the one that includes Stein and Johnson.