3 new polls prove that LA times tracking poll is junk

[molova]

PPP, CBS and Morning Consult just released polls in which Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump. Meanwhile the new and untested latimes tracking poll keeps pretending that Trump is ahead. Latimes is the new Rasmussen.

[beachbum bob]

1. anything that shows trump in better position is good for us as it keeps democrats focused

[Demsrule86]

11. That is total nonsense.

Victory has momentum...many vote for the person they think will win...so negative information harms the effort...

[beachbum bob]

12. not in my world....makes me want to work harder....remember democrats have a problem

with complacency....

[Demsrule86]

14. I work hard every election to get out the vote.

And often I hear...oh what's the point...XYZ is losing or they are both the same...so what you regard as complacency often encourages people to vote. On the other hand...demoralizing voters is never a good thing.

[Johnny2X2X]

2. Yes and No

The LA Times poll is a 7 day average. They pick 1 sample and ask them the same questions every day. So the Trump +4 they still have is an average of the last 7 days, this won't be post convention until this coming Saturday.

The wisdom of using the same sample over and over is another matter, but the LA Times Poll will show Clinton in the lead by this weekend.

[molova]

3. It is mostly post-convention

Hillary should not be down by 4 in a poll where most days are post convention.

[Johnny2X2X]

5. No it's not, it's the 24th through the 31st.

Convention ended the 28th.

[molova]

6. The LA times was an outlier even before both conventions

On July 10, they had Trump ahead of Hillary when nobody else did: http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-daybreak-poll-methodology-20160714-snap-story.html

On July 10 the Republican convention had not even started yet.

Do you stand by your belief that "by this weekend" they will have Clinton ahead?

[Johnny2X2X]

8. It's already moved 3 points.

In 5 more days when the bump is on full effect and the Khan fallout maybe adds to it, yes, I think there a good chance she will lead in this poll too.

[molova]

9. It moved 3 points from a ridiculous "Trump +7"

A margin which by the way has not been replicated by any other pollster.

[Johnny2X2X]

10. Hillary leads in this poll now

LA Times, Hillary +1.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. It's a panel study. I ignore it !!!

[Adrahil]

15. They sat a really crappy panel.

I mean, their pollster has GOT to be looking at their numbers, looking at other numbers and saying to himself, "well, we fucked THAT up."

[geek tragedy]

7. Rasmussen shows her ahead as well, btw nt

[Democat]

13. LA Times poll is pro-Trump, but he's losing there too

http://cesrusc.org/election/