2016 Postmortem

Chichiri

(4,667 posts) Mon Aug 1, 2016, 06:00 PM Aug 2016

STATE OF THE ELECTION - August 1, 2016

98 Days to Election

Electoral Models (270 to win)

PEC: Clinton 319.

NYT: Clinton 328.

538 PO: Clinton 293.

538 PP: Clinton 299.

Cook: Clinton 304 (44 tossups).*

R&G: Clinton 332 (15 tossups).

Sabato: Clinton 347.

Win probabilities

PEC Drift: Clinton 65%.

PEC Bayesian: Clinton 80%.

NYT: Clinton 72%.

538 PO: Clinton 60%.

538 PP: Clinton 67%.

PredictWise: Clinton 72%.

Betfair: Clinton 72%.

Hypermind: Clinton 61%.

PredictIt: Clinton 69%.

IEM: Clinton 71%.

Recent Polls

General (CBS): Clinton 47, Trump 41.

General (CNN): Clinton 52, Trump 32.

General 4-way (CNN): Clinton 45, Trump 37, Johnson 9.

General 3-way (CBS): Clinton 43, Trump 38, Johnson 10.

General (PPP): Clinton 50, Trump 45.

General 4-way (PPP): Clinton 46, Trump 41, Johnson 6.

Penn. (PPP): Clinton 49, Trump 45.

Penn. 4-way (PPP): Clinton 45, Trump 42, Johnson 4.

Missouri 4-way (St Louis Post-Dispatch): Clinton 41, Trump 40, Johnson 9.

Comments:

Under construction.

Methodology

Data for electoral models and probabilities is taken from Princeton Election Consortium (the random drift and Bayesian models), the New York Times, FiveThirtyEight (the polls-only model and the polls-plus model), Cook Political Report, Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, Larry J. Sabato at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, PredictWise, Betfair, Hypermind, PredictIt, and Iowa Electronic Markets. Entries with an asterisk (*) have not been recently updated. Polling data is aggregated from RealClearPolitics.

Quote of the Day:

"I believe that, as long as there is plenty, poverty is evil." --Robert Kennedy