You know what's crazy? At least 40% of the population will still vote for Trump.

[MadDAsHell]

It is extremely rare in a 2-person Presidential race for the losing candidate to not garner at least 40% support from the voting population, regardless of the policies, positions, or actions of that losing candidate: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_by_popular_vote_margin

His campaign seems to be going off a cliff, and from an electoral college vote standpoint a Trump victory is looking less and less and less likely.

However, as difficult as it is for my brain to grasp it, as it is for many others I suppose, especially if we live in a bubble and only really socialize/mingle with other Democrats, history tells us that nearly half of the people that live, work, and play around us are going to go into that voting booth on November 8 convinced that Trump will be a better President than Hillary Clinton...

...REGARDLESS of what Trump or Hillary says/does over the next 90 days. That's insane to think about.

[tonyt53]

1. Yep and nothing will change their minds. Nothing.

[GusBob]

2. 40% of the population? Or 40 % of voters?

big difference

[Garrett78]

20. If every person 18 and over were to vote, he'd still get a staggeringly high percentage.

Maybe 40%, maybe not. Regardless, that tens of millions of people will vote for Donald Trump should be stunning. *Should* be, in a rational world. But anyone living in the US over at least the last couple decades can't really be all that surprised.

[MrScorpio]

3. Looks like it's up to the rest of us to help save a good part of white America from itself.

Wouldn't be the first time either. Probably won't be the last.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

4. Yeah

... and they're not all racists either.

I've been on other forums with posters who have long argued in favor of minorities, but they still plan to vote for Trump. The main reason? They're convinced that government is so corrupt that it needs a major shake-up, and they don't care who does it. If you point out Trump's faults and poor temperament, they just bring up all of the old INNUENDOS against the Clintons. If you further blast holes in those accusations with facts, they reply that some of it MUST be true because there's so much of it.

It's all the result of YEARS of right-wing propaganda.

To use a courtroom analogy...
We've basically had liberals/government as the accused. The prosecutors REPORTED the accusations, and the jury DECIDED. There was no adequate defense attorney!!

[dubyadiprecession]

5. Barack had two opponents that were tougher to beat than trump....

Who knew that hillary's eight year wait, would give her the easiest one to beat?

[Orsino]

6. That's what decades on unlimited propaganda spending buys you:

A mythology in which an evil witch exists that only white voters can stop.

[TeddyR]

7. Important fact to keep in mind

Because while Hillary may win in an electoral college landslide there are a LOT of people who are going to vote for Trump in November. The latest Rasmussen poll had Hillary up 1 point in Nevada. A lot of states are going to be close and it doesn't make a lot of sense to look at national polls at this point.

The WaPo had a piece today on the Khan controversy and Trump supporters either (1) didn't care about what Trump said or (2) weren't aware of the controversy. Those people are still going to vote for Trump in a few months and there's really nothing he can say that would push them into the Hillary camp. A lot of that is based on the simple fact that a large percentage of Americans simply will not vote for Hillary.

[NewJeffCT]

8. I don't think he'll get 40%

I think that if he stays in the race, he'll bleed support off to Gary Johnson. We could see something like Clinton in mid 50s, Trump around 35% and Johnson around 10%

[Buckeye_Democrat]

11. Some of the Trump freaks would like the Libertarian Party

... if they saw the following video of their convention!

It's especially nutty around the 3:20 mark!

I admit that Johnson seemed the most reasonable among them, not that I would ever support him either.

[TeamPooka]

9. If Hitler were the GOP nominee they would support him. nt

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

10. Yes! We do ourselves a disservice to underestimate the people to who will NEVER turn their backs

on Trump.

[LynneSin]

12. Media has to keep this election close and as Democrats we would want it this way too!

Remember all sorts of crazy things are done to make sure that one candidate looks better than another. Specific questions that might steer someone towards one particular answer (ie push-polling) Other things done include polling 'Likely voters vs Registered Voters' (Likely favor GOP but presidential years many more registered come out to vote) and only calling landlines (again, favors GOP which tends to be an older crowd and GOP leaning).

Nate Silver of 538 is one of the most accurate predictors of election outcomes and has Hillary at 70%+ which is AWESOME. However, for our sake we need to keep the polls showing the elections as a close race and here's why! Hillary Clinton is probably going to win but if we can get a higher voter turn out, that higher voting ALWAYS favors Democrats and could impact many of the races down ticket.

This election is more than just Hillary Clinton but getting back our Senate (which is highly likely) and a long-shot of getting back the House (doubtful thanks to gerrymandering).

So keep the polls close and remember to read the fine print of any poll that you view. It could be polling in a manner to make the race seem close.

[Recursion]

13. No, about 24% of the voting age population

60% or so of those eligible to vote will vote; 40% or so of those will vote for Trump

[heaven05]

14. no surprise

they have always been here, albeit quiet to lessen their exposure, the nazi just allowed them to come from under their rocks and out the toilet bowl and feel a part of making america white again.

[M.G.]

15. It's all White Rage and Clinton hate now.

At this point, I've met two kinds of Trump supporters: the kind who revere Archie Bunker as an important American philosopher and sage, and those whose utter hatred of the Clintons make them prefer, in the words of one reluctant Trumpist acquaintance "a Fool King tilting at windmills" to a supposed "heartless despot" convicted in his mind of all the usual far-flung conservative conspiracies.

That's about it as far as Trumpists I've met go.

By any rational metric, this should be a blowout. If it's not one, that's an indictment of the electorate.

[MineralMan]

16. Even in the 1964 landslide election, the

voting percentages were 61% for LBJ and 38.5% for Goldwater. 60/40 is a landslide election, really. How the electoral votes go depends on the distribution of votes, but it's not out of the realm of possibility for Clinton to get almost 400 electoral votes.

May it be so!

[Garrett78]

24. 400 would be amazing in such polarized times.

But Trump is a truly awful candidate. Still, I'm just hoping for 365, the number reached by Obama in 2008.

[jamese777]

17. Nope!

14% of eligible voters voted in the primaries, 9% of all Americans. About half of that 14% who were primary voters voted in Republican primaries and Trump got about 55% of their votes.

[Mandos the Judge]

18. Jihadi puppies...

Truth be told, I suspect that even if Trump would shoot a puppy live on tv, 40% of the electorate would still vote for him with the all the usual rationalizations: "That puppy was probably a jihadi terrorist puppy, so he had it coming..."

[Tatiana]

19. Yes. This is true. I just met one today.

Woman complaining about our Republican governor Bruce Rauner cutting off her food assistance and benefits for the grandson she is raising by herself. I said, well, when you vote for a Republican billionaire, this is what you will get. She said she regretted voting for him. But then -- she's says she's for TRUMP! I couldn't believe it. I wanted to challenge her, but I work in the public schools so it's a very careful line I have to walk.

But I did try to point out the fact that when billionaire business people are elected to office, they will run government like a business. They will cheat, stiff, and disregard those who do not contribute to the profit (or efficiency) of the business. That is why government is NOT a business and we shouldn't elect people who don't believe in the function of government to run it.

I don't know if I changed her mind. Probably not. I could only shake my head.

[vkkv]

22. Just like all the GWB voters who now admit their mistake are now supporting Drumph...

How many Idiots do you know?

I know more than a few.

And sure, Rush and Glenn are frauds! but Alex Jones is right on...

[vkkv]

21. Less than 40% of the population votes....

(at all)

[LAS14]

25. Important point!

I wish each poll would give the percentage of "eligible voters" as well as "likely voters." Or maybe that's what it is??? In which case your point is not as comforting as I thought it was.

[LAS14]

23. I am constantley baffled. One theory I have...

... is that a big portion of those people just never follow any sort of news. They get a call from a pollster and they say they'll vote for the Republican candidate. Cuz they always have. Pure identity politics. No need for information.