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Thu Aug 11, 2016, 11:50 PM

 

I think that the GOP is planning to make this a run for throwing the election into the House.

They put up another candidate to suck up as many votes as they can in some states so that 270 will not be made.

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Reply I think that the GOP is planning to make this a run for throwing the election into the House. (Original post)
glennward Aug 2016 OP
shraby Aug 2016 #1
MFM008 Aug 2016 #2
still_one Aug 2016 #6
PoindexterOglethorpe Aug 2016 #3
alcibiades_mystery Aug 2016 #4
MohRokTah Aug 2016 #8
still_one Aug 2016 #5
MohRokTah Aug 2016 #7
longship Aug 2016 #9
RAFisher Aug 2016 #10
Warren Stupidity Aug 2016 #11
yellowcanine Aug 2016 #12
Proud Public Servant Aug 2016 #13

Response to glennward (Original post)

Thu Aug 11, 2016, 11:52 PM

1. If they get another candidate, that person won't be eligible to be on the ballot in a multitude of

states. The deadline will have passed.

edited to add this link to ballot deadlines.
https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_access_for_presidential_candidates

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Response to glennward (Original post)

Thu Aug 11, 2016, 11:54 PM

2. no

this will not go to the house.
They say that EVERY 4 years.

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Response to MFM008 (Reply #2)

Fri Aug 12, 2016, 12:10 AM

6. When George Wallace ran in 1968 he poised an actual possibility of sending the

election to the House, and was able to capture some southern states.

This election there is almost no chance of any of the independents capturing any states. Maybe Gary Johnson might get New Mexico, but even that would be difficult

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Response to glennward (Original post)

Thu Aug 11, 2016, 11:57 PM

3. What exactly makes you think that?

There's really not time to get someone else on the ballot in enough states for that to work. And that's assuming this hypothetical alternative candidate will win several states.

Ask yourself, if you were a Republican who honored genuine Republican values (and those are not so terrible, even if that might be heresy here) who is currently horrified by Donald Trump as your party's nominee. Will you vote for him because he's a Republican? Maybe. If the party elders revolt and nominate someone else, will you vote for that person? Maybe.

And if the party elders do revolt and put up some other person for the Presidency (and they'll need a VP nominee also, don't forget that), then under what banner will those two run? Donald Trump is the official Republican nominee. Will they say there's now a Republican 2 President and Vice President? Or will they declare another party altogether which would bring up lots of problems about getting on the ballot in many states.

Nope. They're stuck with him. And they have to decide just how strongly they want to support him, or if they want to pretend he's irrelevant and work on the down-ticket races.

In reality, in any election year, the likelihood of the election going to the House, while mathematically possible, is highly unlikely.

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Response to glennward (Original post)

Fri Aug 12, 2016, 12:02 AM

4. ROFL

 

You don't understand the scale of the voting population.

Is this your first election?

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Response to alcibiades_mystery (Reply #4)

Fri Aug 12, 2016, 12:16 AM

8. "Is this your first election?"

 

Nobody who understands how the electoral college functions would make this OP, so it has to be their first election.

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Response to glennward (Original post)

Fri Aug 12, 2016, 12:03 AM

5. That would be a very forminable challege. For one thing it is very difficult for that candidate

to get on the ballot in many states, and that candidate is a virtual unknown.

The votes of this candidate will be taken from Trump, not Hillary.

While it is imperative that we GOTV, it is highly unlikely that these third party candidates will be able to win any states.

States determine the president, not national polls, and at this time the electoral college favors Hillary

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Response to glennward (Original post)

Fri Aug 12, 2016, 12:14 AM

7. Yeah, that depends on Hillary not making 270

 

So that ain't happening.

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Response to glennward (Original post)

Fri Aug 12, 2016, 12:20 AM

9. How does that happen when Hillary gets the majority of EV?

Seems like a really bad strategy to me.

"We've got them right where they want us!!!!"


Where do people come up with this rubbish?

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Response to glennward (Original post)

Fri Aug 12, 2016, 12:36 AM

10. Do republicans even have the votes in the House? Remember they vote by states, not by members

Every state gets one vote and the first candidate to 26 wins. You need 2/3 a state's delegation to constitute a quorum. So does the GOP have 26 states where they control 2/3rds of the state's congressional seats? Right now they do. But in the next election they are bound to lose house seats. So this does not seem like a full proof plan.

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Response to glennward (Original post)

Fri Aug 12, 2016, 06:44 AM

11. It doesn't work that way.

 

Almost all states are plurality winner take all. Splitting the republican votes doesn't hurt Clinton's chances for an electoral college landslide, it helps them. Even if their splinter-R draws some "independent" voters, it still enhances Clinton's chances.

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Response to glennward (Original post)

Fri Aug 12, 2016, 06:51 AM

12. No, if anything this could make it easier for Clinton to pick off more red states.

Utah, for example. FWIW, Trump appears to actually realize this and he basically threw Utah and Mormons under the bus yesterday in an attempt to pander to evangelicals.

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Response to glennward (Original post)

Fri Aug 12, 2016, 07:00 AM

13. To be clear, to do that

He has to hold GA, NC, and AZ while picking up FL, OH, NH, IA, and NV. That seems like a lot to accomplish when it's less than 90 days until the election, you have no field campaign, and you're stuck with the most unpopular standard-bearer in history.

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