2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumLet's get one thing straight about this election (Electoral College).
I know a lot of us (me included) are waiting for every poll with baited breath. And the "tightening" of the polls can be anxiety inducing (as can, and should, the hiring of that piece of shit Bossie into the Trump campaign, when Breitbart already has a seat at the table alongside Kellyanne Conway). Robert Mercer, Billionaire puppet-master, bringing all of the absolute WORST of the WORST into the fold, hoping to be King Maker for Trump.
However...
All that matters is the Electoral College. National polls give you a decent pulse of an election, but they don't paint the whole picture.
Here is the reality.
Hillary Clinton can afford to lose Ohio (where she leads). AND Florida (where she leads). AND North Carolina (where she's mostly lead). AND Iowa (which goes back and forth). AND Nevada (which goes back and forth).
And she'll still win the Presidency.
Trump is NOT winning PA. It's always fool's gold for the Republicans, and this year is no different (a consistent 5-10 pt lead for Hillary, and with college educated whites breaking for Hillary, PA is a WRAP).
Trump is NOT winning VA. It's been trending bluer and bluer, and with Kaine on the ticket, he will easily deliver VA.
So, the way I see it, the map below is the WORST case scenario for Hillary Clinton.
Granted, I want to see a LANDSLIDE of epic proportions (and will do my part in trying to help her win AZ as well). But either way, Trump will NEVER fucking set foot the inside of the Oval Office. Period.
SaschaHM
(2,897 posts)I need a Dem landslide in NC to deliver us from our terrible Governor & Senator (and republican legislative majorities)
Grown2Hate
(2,010 posts)be wasted either way. I always take the day of the election and the day after off (even in off-Presidential years) for the appropriate amount of drinking and hosting of a good progressive BBQ. Hell, I have room for a couple more if any AZ DUers are reading this.
RandySF
(58,770 posts)<div align="center"><a href="http://www.270towin.com/maps/OLBE4"><img src="" width="800"></a><br><small><img style="vertical-align: middle;" src="" alt="" /> Click the map to create your own at <a href="http://www.270towin.com/maps/OLBE4">270toWin.com</a></small></div>
Grown2Hate
(2,010 posts)Beartracks
(12,809 posts)... and not just more population blue. Cuz THEN I think Republican voters could start to understand that are NOT the majority. I really think they need that kind of visual aid. It's too easy for them to stay in denial otherwise.
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steve2470
(37,457 posts)I said GA goes red, only because of the non-Atlanta districts, and Texas goes blue because of the overwhelming Latino vote against Trump. Who knows, I'd be very happy to be wrong about GA! (and the other states I marked red)
Grown2Hate
(2,010 posts)Wolf Frankula
(3,600 posts)But I'm fairly sure Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia and Florida will. What I'd like to see is a blowout like Nixnix's in 1972 or Bonzo's co-star's in 1984, 49 states for Ms. Clinton. I doubt I'll ever see a George Washington, 100% of the electoral votes for Hillary.
Wolf
C Moon
(12,212 posts)That guy is lying, self-consumed, asshole, freak-supreme!!!
Spitfire of ATJ
(32,723 posts)Not me.
sweetloukillbot
(11,008 posts)My hardcore Republican relatives in Central PA (who think Obama is the actual, literal antichrist) are all feeling the Johnson - I think they're resigned to a Hillary victory but can't bring themselves to vote for her. But at the same time, my hardcore Democratic relatives in Eastern Iowa (who love Obama), hate Hillary and are also feeling the Johnson. My wife is working on the Iowa contingent this week.
RAFisher
(466 posts)As long as Clinton is up by healthy margins in those states I'm not worried. Like you said that map is a worst case scenario.