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RCP average on 9/3/12: even; RCP average on 9/3/16: +3.9 Hillary. (Original Post) bluestateguy Sep 2016 OP
Great vadermike Sep 2016 #1
She is still way ahead in the states Johnny2X2X Sep 2016 #2
I hope vadermike Sep 2016 #3
Obama outperformed polls by almost 2 %. I think it was the super hi-tech get out vote machine. Cicada Sep 2016 #4
Good to hear. Thanks! pnwmom Sep 2016 #5
It was also Hurricane Sandy democrattotheend Sep 2016 #6

vadermike

(1,415 posts)
1. Great
Sat Sep 3, 2016, 04:22 PM
Sep 2016

But what is scary is the trend right ? Then again it's Labor Day weekend so not many paying attention yet when we get our big army of surrogates this coming week should be good sanders President O Biden warren etc

Cicada

(4,533 posts)
4. Obama outperformed polls by almost 2 %. I think it was the super hi-tech get out vote machine.
Sat Sep 3, 2016, 05:01 PM
Sep 2016

The Dems have harnessed the high tech big data algorithms of Google etc. Obama's Nerds had a file for virtually every registered voter in the country. They did not use poll samples. They took actual voter registration files, all public information, and gathered massive I formation about every voter. Magazine subscriptions, occupations, addresses, education, Etc. And they figured out the best ways to get Obama voters to the polls. They didn't just have hunches. They have files of actual scientific experiments where they tested hypotheses and measured actual official voting records. The people with skills to do this and available time to do it are typically graduate students or young professionals in computers and social sciences such as economics, social psychology, political science. And these people rarely want to help Republicans so Dems have a huge advantage. David Plouffe recently said he thinks Hillary will gain one to three points in swing states from her superior ground game. And these people don't guess about these things. They have rock solid specific measures based on rigorous measurements.

That one to three point advantage may be why Obama outperformed 2012 polls. And Hillary may also outperform them for the same reason.

The election starts Friday with early voting in North Carolina. The great Democratic get out the right voter machine revs up its engine then. Go Blue!

democrattotheend

(11,605 posts)
6. It was also Hurricane Sandy
Sun Sep 4, 2016, 09:26 PM
Sep 2016

Polls often lag behind voter sentiment by a few days, due to the time it takes to conduct and analyze the poll. In 2012, the undecideds broke for Obama after he did such a good job handling Sandy. The polls only partially captured that.

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