Prediction: You will see a decline in Trump's poll numbers starting the end of the coming week

[Loki Liesmith]

Last edited Sun Sep 4, 2016, 11:25 PM - Edit history (1)

Examine the trend at http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton

There is a clear cyclical variation operating for the last few months in Trump's numbers. Also we appear to be at local maximum (his best performance is (usually) around 42%.

I would expect to see a split of 46H and 42T this week. Then I expect to see a slow decline in Trump's numbers.

On Edit: Adding image of poll trend

[img][/img]

[vadermike]

1. And

Did u guys see that poll on abc news something like 67 percent of voters terrified of Trumps immigration speech

[Doctor Jack]

2. Its the end of the summer doldrums right now

There aren't many big political events happening right now. The conventions are long gone, the debates are still many weeks away. When people stop paying attention, because they have lives to lead, the polls get closer. And by "closer" we are still talking about a 5.5-6.5 point lead for Clinton. If we are hitting a point of the race "settling down" for a few weeks and the best trump can do is still be down by almost 6 points then this race isn't going to be close. The election is about to ramp up again and the trump team won't know what him them.

[SCliberal91294]

3. Where?

nm

[Loki Liesmith]

5. See huff post link in original post

Wasn't sure if I could embed the poll without stepping on their IP

[Freddie]

4. Debates are coming

She will totally destroy him. Can't wait.

[napi21]

6. I've a;sp heard his #'s will plummet after the debates.

He's no good at answering direct questions and no audience to root him and his ego along. He also doesn't know anything about foreign policy, or domestic policy for that matter. "I'll make everything great, trust me" doesn't suffice in a debate!

[OnDoutside]

7. It will if the moderators let him away with it !!!

[roamer65]

8. Hopefully he has a meltdown in the debate on national TV.

It would be priceless.

[Loki Liesmith]

10. I'm just counting on the cyclical variation I see in the data.

[img][/img]

[SaschaHM]

9. He has the commander-in-chief forum on Wednesday. I expect him to do terribly.

I doubt veterans will take kindly to him being an ignorant mess and the juxtaposition of Secretary Clinton having actual policies to him just saying "We don't win anymore. Make America Great Again." will be to striking to notice. If he bombs, he might not show up to the non-Fox hosted debates.

[Egnever]

11. If you could overlay that with media coverage

I bet you would see an obvious correlation.

[Loki Liesmith]

12. I have an idea...

I'd like to extract the dominant topics from headlines on google News for every day and then regress the appearance of certain terms against the direction of change in poll numbers.

I have a hypothesis that whenever the word "emails" appears Trump starts an upswing.

What is odd, though, is that the period is so consistently abour 3 weeks to a month. I think we are basically measuring the media's attention span with that.

[Egnever]

13. I would bet it takes a long time to move his numbers back up

longer than it takes for him to tank them. You can see it really, the drops are sharp and the climbs are slow.