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2016 Postmortem

Loki Liesmith

(4,602 posts) Tue Sep 6, 2016, 09:57 AM Sep 2016

Folks, about 1 out of every 20 polls taken is going to show Trump leading Clinton

Even if she is significantly ahead.

If it's a bit closer, but she is still ahead, this will happen more frequently. But it is a statistical certainty.

3 replies

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Folks, about 1 out of every 20 polls taken is going to show Trump leading Clinton (Original Post) Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 OP

I agree, but it should be obvious why... they CNN LV poll doesn't tell its LV methodology.. uponit7771 Sep 2016 #1

That's not quite true mythology Sep 2016 #2

Hmm...do we know that the polls use two tailed tests? Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 #3

uponit7771

(90,335 posts)

1. I agree, but it should be obvious why... they CNN LV poll doesn't tell its LV methodology..

Reply to Loki Liesmith (Original post)

Tue Sep 6, 2016, 10:13 AM

Sep 2016

... its click bate polling the M$M falls for that's more disturbing

mythology

(9,527 posts)

2. That's not quite true

Reply to Loki Liesmith (Original post)

Tue Sep 6, 2016, 02:27 PM

Sep 2016

Because the ends trail off equally, about 1 in 20 polls will have an unrepresentative sample, but it is equally likely to show Clinton further ahead than she is as show Trump doing better than he is.

Loki Liesmith

(4,602 posts)

3. Hmm...do we know that the polls use two tailed tests?

Reply to mythology (Reply #2)

Tue Sep 6, 2016, 02:54 PM

Sep 2016

Obviously you are right if they do. Otherwise 1 in 40 then.

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