Clinton Still in Electoral College Command But Map is Less Favorable; And Is Texas Truly In Play?

[tgards79]

Clinton is laboring a bit on Labor Day, but Trump is still on the ropes in states he should be winning easily...
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2016/09/clinton-laboring-on-labor-day-as-race.html

[LenaBaby61]

1. This guy never said what polling he's using...

To come up with why he's saying what he's saying. I have a friends who lives in Texas and she tells me tRump is up there by about 20 points. A friend who lived in Mississippi who now lives in SC., and she told me there's no way Hillary is within a point of or up on tRump there in Mississippi. A relative in Va. that told me a few days ago that Hillary will win Va., so how is tRump near 1 point behind or ahead of Hillary, especially when her VP--whose very popular--comes from there? I believe friends/relatives over weird and purposely contrived polls which don't bother polling Millennials (18-34) or 1/3 of the electorate (ORO/CNN), polls which say that 50% of the electorate falls into the white uneducated male category (ORO/CNN), polls which under-samples minorities or they don't poll them at ALL (Several recently released polls), polls which lean too far right (Rasmussen, Gravis, several other right-leaning polls), use landlines only, polls which poll only 786 people for a general election (ORO/CNN), or polls which poll 115 people and call that a complete poll (Ipsos) and finally polls which over sample AND add in horse race mems I know and see are there because they want to make ad monies and keep their ratings as high as possible (Again, many polls). I am not saying that there isn't a tightening of the polls, because I never believed that Hillary was up as far as 12 or do % points over tRump because we live in a nearly 50-50 country. However, some of these so-called "major polls" are ridiculous with the methodology they use which is in many cases very flawed and then it's added in with more reliable polling and of course you get your "horse race" meme, and advertising dollars via ratings. Chuck Todd of all people even called out elements of the ORO/CNN poll yesterday.

[tgards79]

2. The huge survey monkey poll. National state by state.

5000 sample size in Texas...

[yellowcanine]

3. Dallas Morning News endorsement of Clinton actually kind of a big deal.

First time since WWII they have endorsed a Democrat. IMO they would have gone the non endorsement route if Trump were way out in front. Also their endorsement will give some cover to Texas Republicans to support Clinton. At the least Trump may have to give the state some attention and probably run ads there, which will dilute his efforts in other critical battleground states.

[TexasBushwhacker]

4. And the Houston Chronicle endorsed her in July

So that's the 2 biggest papers. The Austin American Statesman will if they haven't already. Considering Trump's comments about Mexicans, I imagine the San Antonio paper will endorse her too. If we can GOTV in the cities, I think she has a chance.

[tgards79]

7. And a chance is all it takes...

...because Trump absolutely cannot afford to lose a whopping 38 Electoral Votes in Texas that should have been in the bag. He will have to spend time there. A day spent there is a day not spent in Ohio or Florida.

[TexasBushwhacker]

8. And most of the big cities are at least light blue

Not exactly Republican strongholds. Sure, he had a big long line of supporters to see him in one of Houston's northern suburbs, but it will be difficult for him to campaign here because only the rural areas, suburbs and the panhandle are red.

[tgards79]

9. Let's hope he tries...

...the more he tries the better for Hillary...