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Mon Sep 12, 2016, 06:19 PM

DEMS ON TRACK TO BLOW THE SENATE

The Huffington Post headline "DEMS ON TRACK TO BLOW THE SENATE" should be a wake up call! This is a very well researched and clearly presented premise:

We simulated a Nov. 8 election 100 million times using our state-by-state probabilities. In 13.4 million simulations, Democrats ended up with at least 51 seats. Therefore, we say Democrats have a 13.4 percent chance of gaining control of the Senate.
...
The 2016 Senate consists of 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats. (The two independent senators caucus with Democrats.) Voters usually re-elect their incumbent senators, but some seats could flip to the other party.

If four Republican Senate seats flip to Democrats and there are no other changes, the 2017 Senate will be split 50-50.
...
99.0% chance Wisconsin will flip to a Democrat
Russell Feingold (D) won against incumbent Ronald Johnson (R) in 99.9% of our simulations.
81.0% chance Illinois will flip to a Democrat
70.8% chance Nevada will flip to a Republican
Joe Heck (R) won against Catherine Cortez-Masto (D) in 77.5% of our simulations.
53.3% chance Pennsylvania will flip to a Democrat
Kathleen McGinty (D) won against incumbent Patrick Toomey (R) in 63.3% of our simulations.
Toss-up in Indiana
Toss-up in New Hampshire
Incumbent Kelly Ayotte (R) won against Maggie Hassan (D) in 53.2% of our simulations.

We are blowing an opportunity to take control of the Senate by focusing too much on a presidential race that is either already won or unwinnable (if America would elect Trump, we have overestimated America and that cannot be fixed in two months, but I believe America will not elect Trump because we're better than that).

We need to stop the fetishistic obsession on the presidential race and refocus on winning the Senate. Regardless of who is elected president, we will not get shit accomplished with a Senate and House both in Republican control.

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Arrow 54 replies Author Time Post
Reply DEMS ON TRACK TO BLOW THE SENATE (Original post)
Attorney in Texas Sep 2016 OP
NCTraveler Sep 2016 #1
RonniePudding Sep 2016 #38
a kennedy Sep 2016 #2
Attorney in Texas Sep 2016 #23
TDale313 Sep 2016 #3
Demsrule86 Sep 2016 #4
UCmeNdc Sep 2016 #5
bettyellen Sep 2016 #6
Attorney in Texas Sep 2016 #21
bettyellen Sep 2016 #25
Attorney in Texas Sep 2016 #50
TwilightZone Sep 2016 #34
bettyellen Sep 2016 #42
radius777 Sep 2016 #47
Codeine Sep 2016 #7
Demsrule86 Sep 2016 #9
Codeine Sep 2016 #11
Demsrule86 Sep 2016 #12
RonniePudding Sep 2016 #33
Demsrule86 Sep 2016 #52
JTFrog Sep 2016 #14
alcibiades_mystery Sep 2016 #19
JoePhilly Sep 2016 #28
MineralMan Sep 2016 #8
Attorney in Texas Sep 2016 #22
Demsrule86 Sep 2016 #10
asiliveandbreathe Sep 2016 #13
Codeine Sep 2016 #15
grossproffit Sep 2016 #18
redstateblues Sep 2016 #36
grossproffit Sep 2016 #46
DarthDem Sep 2016 #16
DanTex Sep 2016 #17
dsc Sep 2016 #20
GWC58 Sep 2016 #30
AngryAmish Sep 2016 #24
bettyellen Sep 2016 #26
GWC58 Sep 2016 #31
TwilightZone Sep 2016 #32
Demsrule86 Sep 2016 #44
bettyellen Sep 2016 #53
Demsrule86 Sep 2016 #54
GWC58 Sep 2016 #45
TwilightZone Sep 2016 #37
tonyt53 Sep 2016 #27
Cosmocat Sep 2016 #29
Adrahil Sep 2016 #41
radius777 Sep 2016 #49
SCliberal91294 Sep 2016 #35
TwilightZone Sep 2016 #39
Bucky Sep 2016 #40
Coolest Ranger Sep 2016 #43
Proud Public Servant Sep 2016 #48
RandySF Sep 2016 #51

Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 06:22 PM

1. "Mike Pence Refuses To Call David Duke ‘Deplorable’"

 

Love the headline when I click your link.

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Response to NCTraveler (Reply #1)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 08:38 PM

38. The original link was probably from Breitbart

 

Or the Daily Caller.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 06:25 PM

2. Was actually shocked to read this......

Have to make sure to GOTV for Dems.

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Response to a kennedy (Reply #2)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 07:44 PM

23. We are missing a golden opportunity to have the presidency and the Senate

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 06:31 PM

3. California will stay Dem.

Boxer retiring, but Nov will feature a race between 2 Dems (Kamala Harris and Loretta Sanchez) because of our relatively new "top two from Primaries go on to the general regardless of party" system.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 06:34 PM

4. Right...we should just concentrate on down ticket races...

you know if you can't support the nominee and all...yes I saw the post. We do support the Democratic nominee. How about...we need the presidency...because they can still get judges through if Trump were to win unless you believe we could stonewall for four years.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 06:34 PM

5. Nevada needs Money and GOTV effort.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 06:34 PM

6. "Already won or unwinnable" what the ever loving fuck does that mean? Seriously?

 

Do you understand the "support democrats" thing you agreed to? It appears not. Plus- that makes no sense at all. Primary is over dude. Stop embarrassing yourself.

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Response to bettyellen (Reply #6)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 07:40 PM

21. That means Trump is an ass and facts which irrefutably prove that conclusion are already known.

If a majority of American voters are going to support Trump despite what is already known, then it is the country that is broken and we cannot fix the country in less than 2 months.

How is "let's take back the Senate" not supporting Democrats?

This has NOTHING WHATSOEVER to do with the primary. This assumed that either (a) Hillary has already won this race due to the deplorable nature of Trump or (b) the country is filled with more bigots and morons than I ever dreamed and we cannot fix that type of massive flaw in the voting population. I am 99% convinced America will NOT vote for a bully charlatan like Trump. If I did believe America was in such a state of ignorance and meanness, I would have given up hope already.

This has EVERYTHING to do with taking back the Senate.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #21)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 07:59 PM

25. No- it means you are making totally conflicting claims to suppress GOTV for Hillary.

 

And guess what? Us HRC supporters have been talking about - and working toward taking back the senate and congress for months as well as GOTV for Hillary.

GOTV is tremendously important for Hillary as well as all the candidates. Stop trying to suppress GOTV with bullshit "logic" that it is over. Totally transparent nonsense.

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Response to bettyellen (Reply #25)

Tue Sep 13, 2016, 09:49 AM

50. How is emphasizing the need for Democratic wins in Pennsylvania Indiana & New Hampshire Senate races

suppressing GOTV for Hillary?

Allocating emphasis from races where we are well ahead to increase the focus on toss up races is something we do all the time. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) does this EVERY election. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) does this EVERY election.

Spending so much effort in the Clinton-Trump race where Clinton is at least 70% likely to win while we let control of the Senate slip away is a misallocation of resources. Moreover, we are abetting the media's obsession with Trump and its relentless effort to sell its "TV news product" by reporting this not-very-close race as tighter than it really is by buying the phony story that we must focus on this race which we have already won.

This HELPS Trump by keeping him in the media and it HELPS the Republicans keep control of the Senate by distracting us from the races that we need to win in order to enable Hillary to get anything meaningful accomplished.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #21)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 08:28 PM

34. If Trump wins the presidency...

we won't win the Senate.

You understand that those things are related, right? This isn't complicated. It's kind of how things work.

Your premise is ridiculous, by the way. Clinton and other Dems have been raising funds for down-ticket races for months.

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Response to TwilightZone (Reply #34)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 08:58 PM

42. He could never say one good thing about Hillary and is now hoping to stop others from GOTV too.

 

Fuck that

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Response to TwilightZone (Reply #34)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 09:37 PM

47. Exactly, high Dem/H turnout = electoral landslide = win the Senate

since most voters will vote a straight ticket, ie if they come out to vote for the Dem presidential candidate they will likely vote for the competitive down ticket (House, Senate, local, etc) races for Dems as well.

A rising tide lifts all boats.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 06:38 PM

7. Oh, you're back now.

Lovely.

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Response to Codeine (Reply #7)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 06:41 PM

9. I have no earthly idea why. nt

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Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #9)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 06:43 PM

11. They're making a little run on the place today.

One of them went off on a nice little tirade about Jews earlier this afternoon. I guess things got a little boring over at FuckStickRadicals.

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Response to Codeine (Reply #11)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 06:53 PM

12. God knows it is boring...

I do hope that the one that went on the tirade was bounced.

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Response to Codeine (Reply #11)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 08:27 PM

33. Yep

 

This one's been "concerned" for awhile now. The OP was saying HRC had no chance to win the GE right up until Bernie conceded. Lots and lots and lots of boundless concern. Always concern. Never anything else.

He also rec'd his own post. A tell if there ever was one.

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Response to RonniePudding (Reply #33)

Tue Sep 13, 2016, 10:05 AM

52. That is so true. nt

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Response to Codeine (Reply #7)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 06:55 PM

14. And ever so concerned. n/t

 

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Response to Codeine (Reply #7)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 07:20 PM

19. ROFL

 

Seriously.

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Response to Codeine (Reply #7)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 08:06 PM

28. !!!!!!!

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 06:40 PM

8. Then, I suggest you start volunteering for GOTV

efforts. You could help prove Adriana wrong. Thanks!

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Response to MineralMan (Reply #8)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 07:41 PM

22. I am. I wish more were.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 06:42 PM

10. More doom and gloom...

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 06:54 PM

13. When I read this article I went in search for more -

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/9/10/1554435/-Senate-Ratings-2016

Nevada..long write-up - Lean D - with this - CCM should run close to Clinton, and Clinton should win, so Lean D. (CCM - ex-AG Catherine Cortez Masto) -

Louisiana is interesting - but can we pull a D - so much going on there...

As it stands right now - DailyKos D-49 R-51 - with a 46% chance - 1 - just 1 more - for a tie...

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 07:01 PM

15. Aren't you the genius who insisted the FBI would recommend indictment?

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Response to Codeine (Reply #15)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 07:19 PM

18. Ah, reads like a Jim Jones Radical.

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Response to grossproffit (Reply #18)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 08:33 PM

36. Does not the smell test. Didn't this poster think HRC was going to be indicted?

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Response to redstateblues (Reply #36)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 09:17 PM

46. Yes. Among other things.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 07:17 PM

16. Actually, in NV . . .


(I know this post is from someone who's very, very concerned, but still

Nevada could be very close, but it is notoriously difficult to poll. Some here may remember Harry Reid's elections in 1998 and 2010, where polls often showed him to be trailing, but in fact he won both races (2010 easily, by about 5.5%). The state has only gotten more defiant of analysis since; moreover, it also doesn't get polled very often for whatever reason, adding to the confusion. And the demographics of the state have changed every year as well, in Democrats' favor, of course. Cortez Masto is an excellent candidate and seems to be running a good campaign. That's at worst a tossup. It is in no way a Rethug lean.

By the way, the Ayotte "win simulations" - also replicated at Daily Kos' new polltracker and prediction metric in their attempt to share some of 538's mojo - come from one poll showing Ayotte ahead by an improbable margin. That's what's driving the simulations cited by HuffPo and what caused the Daily Kos thingamabob to change from predicting a 50-50 Senate to its current prediction. Hassan should win comfortably.

The real Senate news today is the DNC making ad buys in MO and NC, where Jason Kander and Deborah Ross have excellent shots at unseating two GOP backbenchers.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 07:18 PM

17. So how did your poll truthering during the primaries work out?

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 07:30 PM

20. I think you are entirely too pessimistic on New Hampshire

One poll has Ayotte up 8 the rest are close leads for each candidate with Hassan in the lead in more than half of them. You also don't have NC here where Ross is showing signs of closing the race and has been holding Burr to under 50% in all but one poll since September of last year.

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Response to dsc (Reply #20)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 08:10 PM

30. 8! I find that

hard to believe. Ayotte is worthless,a teabagger 2010 wave wonder.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 07:46 PM

24. Payal Des Barres type stuff

 

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 08:01 PM

26. "Fetishistic obsession" uh huh. LOL

 

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Response to bettyellen (Reply #26)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 08:14 PM

31. That I like!

Where'd ya hear that one?

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Response to GWC58 (Reply #31)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 08:25 PM

32. It's in the OP.

Apparently, we're all obsessed with the presidential race and ignoring down-ticket races.

Except we're not.

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Response to TwilightZone (Reply #32)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 09:11 PM

44. This poster has no interest in the top of the ticket and has publicly declared this. nt.

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Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #44)

Tue Sep 13, 2016, 11:06 AM

53. This is purely about his own wounded feelings. Hates to see support of Hillary.

 

Nothing new here.

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Response to bettyellen (Reply #53)

Sat Sep 17, 2016, 08:47 AM

54. Sorry for the late reply...so true.

It is kind of ironic that after posting about how anyone could get sick...I got sick and ended in the hospital with gall stones and partial bowel obstruction...I am much younger than Hillary, and it put me flat on my back for four days...and I was lucky. Hillary must be an iron woman. I have never been ill or hospitalized before.

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Response to TwilightZone (Reply #32)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 09:13 PM

45. A Democrat will hold Maryland's

Senate seat.😀

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Response to bettyellen (Reply #26)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 08:38 PM

37. Yeah...

That makes the whole thing just a tad transparent, no?

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 08:02 PM

27. Uh, the Senate is the Republicans to lose. Democrats aren't "blowing" anything.

 

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 08:10 PM

29. Indiana isn't a toss up

Bayh is going to win.

I dont agree w your overall premise, these races are most definitely at DEFCON 1. But the make or break is Mcgintey.

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Response to Cosmocat (Reply #29)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 08:46 PM

41. Seriously. Bayh is up in every poll.

 


NOT a toss-up.

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Response to Cosmocat (Reply #29)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 09:49 PM

49. Of course, which makes me doubt

the article, because Bayh is almost certain to win in Indiana, several polls show him with a big lead.

I agree, McGintey has to win.

The key is turnout for the presidential race, which would help deliver victory in some of these closer senate races. High profile Dem surrogates (Obama, Biden, Michelle, Bill, etc) can definitely help as well.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 08:31 PM

35. Honestly,

I'm only worried about the White House. I think we can make some decent gains, but I think Hillary will be able to compromise at least. There is a strong chance that Trump says 10 more stupid things and no republicans show up to vote for him.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 08:39 PM

39. I know that this will come as a shock...

But the idea is both to win the presidency and make gains in down-ticket races.

It's never been one or the other. Nor should it be.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 08:44 PM

40. word choice matters

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 09:05 PM

43. You will excuse me

if I don't relax until the morning after. This looks good on paper but I'm worried about turnout

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Sep 12, 2016, 09:41 PM

48. Here's why those are screwy priorities

First of all, gaining the Senate by the slimmest possible margin, while still being the minority in the House, gets us almost nothing.

Second, I suggest you ask both Obama the GOP which is better: to hold the Senate without the presidency, or to hold the presidency without the Senate?

Obama's accomplished a fair bit of his agenda without holding the Senate; the GOP has advanced almost nothing on their agenda because they don't have the White House.

GOTV for the Senate, obviously, but the game is the White House, especially in the era of the imperial presidency. Never forget that.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Tue Sep 13, 2016, 10:04 AM

51. You better hurry while they're all together

They'll be going back in recess very soon.

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