2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPPP is Tweeting that they have a decent poll for Clinton in VA coming out today
Claims that on a 1-10 happiness scale for Democrats, this one will rank in at a 7-8. So let's speculate on what margin that translates to! Winner gets a kudos after results are revealed.
I'm going with Clinton at +9.
Link to the Tweet: https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/775432884266164224
bradla24
(16 posts)In my opinion, the last three days have been bad for our side. While i understand that damn la times dorsife poll is a panel and is flawed, look at the direction it has gone the last few days. Nothing but negative coverage for her.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)...
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)Since it is panel of repeat respondents and they only contact a random 1/7 of the respondents each time it is literally impossible to suss out a trend. Each result is just dependent on what the make up of the 1/7 contacted is for that day. So, it manages to straddle the line between can't get a random sample trend (The total population selected from is not random.) and can't track any change of sentiment within one group (As they keep calling different preselected respondents.).
It is an interesting experiment, but completely and entirely dependent on the initial panel selected and with horrifically bad trend controls on top of that.
book_worm
(15,951 posts)That's good news if it's a 7-8 point lead given that HRC has stopped advertising and Trump poured a bunch of money into the state recently.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)book_worm
(15,951 posts)Godhumor
(6,437 posts)So today we find out the actual spread, but on a happiness level we should be pretty happy with the result.
PPP Twitter is pretty fun to follow.
RAFisher
(466 posts)Clinton has over 270 states that are soilid or lean blue. I'm not saying it's over but every poll just seems to confirm Trump can't pick off any of these states.
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)democrattotheend
(11,605 posts)They mentioned they were doing it last week. 7-8 in Virginia is pretty solid. It's crazy how that state has gone from a long shot swing state to a likely Dem state in just 8 years.