OH Polls YouGov HRC +7; Bloomberg Trump +5. Which is right? It's up to you...

[piechartking]

Turnout model for YouGov has +Dems advantage.
Turnout model for Bloomberg has +Repubs advantage (similar to 2004)

So which one is right? Depends on us to GOTV!

[helpisontheway]

1. Does yougov include data from 11th and 12th? Nt

[piechartking]

8. No n/t

[JoePhilly]

2. Hillary +2

[democrattotheend]

3. The Bloomberg poll is more recent

I hate to be a Debbie Downer, but the YouGov poll was conducted prior to the almost fainting incident Sunday. Not clear yet what effect, if any, that will have on polls. LA Times tracking poll is not great but may still be useful for trends, and it shows Trump gaining nationally.

We'll have a better idea when the next YouGov poll comes out.

[OhZone]

4. Ohio Gov. John Kasich warns it will be ‘really, really difficult’ for Trump to win the key swing sta

Ohio Gov. John Kasich warns it will be ‘really, really difficult’ for Trump to win the key swing state

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/kasich-warns-difficult-trump-win-ohio-article-1.2741739

[Iliyah]

5. Well just my opinion when a poll using 83% white electorate as a standard

wherein Ohio's white electorate is 77 - 78%, and factor in a very low % of POC and young, and that T-rump would beat Pres O in OH, et al.,

I'm pretty sure HRC will win OH.

[LenaBaby61]

7. Well just my opinion when a poll using 83% white electorate are a standard.

Agreed.

That's why I'm not giving too much weight to some of these pro-white polls where there's a majority white electoral model used. The SurveyMonkey poll is an on-line poll that I also give nothing more than a look-see to when I see it. The recent CNN poll used a flawed methodology to give tRump that +2 point lead he had about a week ago. Some polls use only land lines and no cell phones in their polling, and some didn't even use the demographic model of 18-34 year olds (Millennials) in their polling, and they over sampled white voters with NO college degree who go very big or tRump (CNN). And we know many polls lean right more so than left.

The Horse Race meme is STILL very much in effect as we know

[MohRokTah]

6. Give it a few days.

Bloomberg will be shown to be an outlier.

[molova]

9. Pre-Pneumonia (Yougov) vs. Partly Post-Pneumonia (Bloomberg)

The media catapulted Trump to the lead.

[stevenleser]

10. YouGov turnout model is closer to what turnout was in 2012. Bloomberg oversamples Republicans.

We should behave as if the worst polls are right and GOTV, but if we are discussing which is more correct IMHO there is no question that the YouGov has a more realistic sample.

[rockfordfile]

11. I think somewhere in between and Clinton leads.

[Fast Walker 52]

12. even if Trump has a lead, what campaign is actually organized to get out their vote?

Seems like Hillary has a huge advantage there.

[book_worm]

13. I honestly don't think turnout will favor the GOP this year.