2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBrief polling primer: Clinton has been steady at ~+2 in a 4 way for awhile now...
And it has been very steady. What that means, though, is not that every poll will be a +2. It means you will see polls favorable to Trump, even some with him up by low to mid single digits. It also means you will see some with Clinton up by mid to high single digits. That is just how polling works. That is also, honestly, what you want to see for the industry--it means polls aren't herding (Forcing results to meet a narrative.). So, individual polls should never cause anxiety or elation in and of themselves.
Secondly, state polls tend to lag national, but will start settling into the same pattern. That means close battleground states like OH, FL and NV will show some Trump leads and some Clinton leads. This is normal.
Clinton doesn't have this sewn up, but she has a strong firewall that looks like it is holding through VA, PA, MI and CO. Obviously don't assume it is in the bag, but enough with the freaking out. The race polling may be close, but the EV results, as of now, are not.
ProudToBeBlueInRhody
(16,399 posts)Godhumor
(6,437 posts)The most recent CO poll is Hillary +7
ProudToBeBlueInRhody
(16,399 posts)More goddamn static.
TexasTowelie
(112,128 posts)any movement in the polls is statistical noise until the debates begin.
Jason1961
(413 posts)Hillary is going to crush Trump at the debates. I can't wait to hear his excuse as to why he has to cancel the rest after Hillary crushes him in the first.
asiliveandbreathe
(8,203 posts)explanation for the poll numbers...now that 538 has figured in the Q-pac poll - I will share for you -
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
When there is so much data now - percentages move only slightly - unless there is an outlier - +2 or -2
Not sewn up for Hillary - correcto mundo! Firewall - you bet! - -