Is Clinton in trouble? The architect of the Obama coalition explains why it’s still hers to lose.

[DonViejo]

By Greg Sargent September 14 at 9:57 AM

The Trump-can-really-win-this-thing chorus is once again at full blast, due to a confluence of new factors: Hillary Clinton’s health scare and botched mishandling of it; the supposed “deplorables” gaffe; a new poll showing Trump ahead in Ohio; and evidence of seemingly lackluster enthusiasm among core groups in the Obama coalition.

Yes, Trump can really win. This is not a courageous or difficult thing to say. No matter how many times people pretend otherwise, Democrats have long predicted and prepared for a very close finish in the battleground states.

I’ve already tried to offer my guide on how not to lose your mind in the race’s final stretch. But here’s something better than my offering. Former Obama adviser David Plouffe — who is one of the architects of that vaunted “Obama coalition” — gave an important interview to Chuck Todd last night that I think deserves more attention.

In essence, Plouffe stated flatly that he thinks Clinton is already very close to winning, because (in his view) Virginia, Colorado, and Pennsylvania are already out of reach for Trump. As Plouffe puts it, this would require Trump to pull off a miraculous string of victories in many battlegrounds — including Ohio and Florida, but also in many others — to win. As Plouffe notes, given all of this, Trump would need historically high Republican turnout and historically low Democratic turnout — and to do better than he currently is among moderates — to win. “I don’t see any evidence of that happening,” Plouffe said. “This comes down to, where is Trump going to pick up ground?”

Then Plouffe said:

“The biggest challenge she’s gonna have is turnout. I think they’ll get there. I really do. But if you look at swing voters — there’s a few more than there are normally — Trump’s not offering them much. He’s got to pull a bunch of people who voted for Obama twice. I think there’s going to be very few of those people around the country.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/09/14/is-clinton-in-trouble-the-architect-of-the-obama-coalition-explains-why-its-still-hers-to-lose/?utm_term=.8830938af448&wpisrc=nl_popns&wpmm=1

[democrattotheend]

1. She needs to get some of the Obama campaign people into her inner circle

I think the people advising her now are not doing such a great job. She and her staff probably don't want the Obama campaign team too close to the top of her campaign because they don't trust them, but I think she should consider doing a little bit of a shakeup and putting Plouffe and some of Obama's other top campaign people at the top of her campaign.

[saltpoint]

2. Plouffe, to his credit given what he does,

is hyper-practical, and that's just what's needed right now to buoy the blue team.

Trump is still Trump for the remaining days of the campaign, and the odds of his shoving his foot into his mouth may increase as pressure mounts toward Election Day. I like to think his internal polling shows he does not have a demographic model likely to produce a victory. Then I'd like to see him have a series of high-profile meltdowns which doom both the Trump-Pence campaign and as many down-ballot Pukes as we can count.

For the Clinton-Kaine victory party, they should:

1) charge a cover fee to be donated to the charities Trump says he gave to but didn't; and
2) serve tacos.

[vadermike]

3. Ploufe

Needs to join ASAP It's probably too late Trump said all this horrible things and he leads along with the health scare Looks like Trump is gonna Caarrt FL OH NV He could easily get WI now that he is ahead in OH I wouldn't be surprised to see PA razor close This is the time when our team should have been ahead Geez I am trying to find a silver lining somewhere I just can't ugh