2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumStop with the "CNN didn't poll anyone under 50"
They do not report data for subgroups with margins of error above a certain threshold.
pnwmom
(108,973 posts)ORC used to report those numbers with their polls but I didn't see any this time. And I've noticed this with other polls, too.
It's almost like they don't want us to know.
machomaas
(8 posts)to the CNN/ORC polls on another thread. BTW, if N/A is listed in one of the crosstalk it means that there were fewer than about 140 likely voters in that group. I figure that for the FL poll no more than 1/4 of the likely voter respondents were under 50. The LV screen probably kicks a lot out of the original sample.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)they won't report that.
It may still be a flawed sample, but not at all clear.
pnwmom
(108,973 posts)answers to those questions (age, race, income, etc.) in the report of the survey itself.
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)HRC is likely to win.
But I do like data based critiques to actually be data-based.
MadBadger
(24,089 posts)I get maybe not having enough for 18-29, but 35-49 too? Don't buy that
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)Who knows? This week is fucked pollingwise. We were lucky to not get hammered in QPac too.
I'm hoping they do not Poll NH or PA till next week. Worried we'd get a bad result by accident.
I may just tune out for a week, this place gets too hype.
Persondem
(1,936 posts)So if the 50+ demographic has a large MoE then it is likely that the sample of 50+ was small.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)but the sample size would be small anyway. It is not *nonexistent*.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)that seems to have happened.
That pushes close states, like FL and OH, over to Trump.
If his share of the national vote ebbs again, we will see polls we like better in the close states.
displacedtexan
(15,696 posts)Politicususa has the story. I'm on my phone & can't paste the link. The updated CNN Poll story is at the end of the story.
triron
(21,994 posts)under 50? Sounds bizarre. Why was that?
factfinder_77
(841 posts)Crosstabs on the following pages only include results for subgroups with enough unweighted cases to produce a sampling error of
+/- 8.5 percentage points or less. Some subgroups represent too small a share of the population of Ohio to produce crosstabs with
an acceptable sampling error. Interviews were conducted among these subgroups but results for groups with a sampling error
larger than +/-8.5 percentage points are not displayed.
piechartking
(617 posts)You also have to do the same with the polls that show us ahead, so we know that similar undercounts aren't happening with, for example, whites without a college degree or voters 65+.
I prefer not to do either, just take the good with the shitty and plow ahead. I have faith in our GOTV and (somewhat) in the American voter (I hope).
pnwmom
(108,973 posts)Even if they weighted the final results to account for age, their initial small sample could have been skewed.