It’s already happening! Yes, Trump is closing in on the polls, but here’s why that’s meaningless

[DonViejo]

The numbers might show that Trump is inching closer to the White House, but the truth is he remains miles away

GARY LEGUM

As you read this, pollsters are preparing to release surveys conducted over the past weekend and its immediate aftermath, when Hillary Clinton made her accurate but perhaps poorly phrased comment about Donald Trump’s “deplorable” fans, then nearly passed out at a 9/11 memorial service in New York before revealing she had been trying to “power through” a case of walking pneumonia. This allowed the media to start reporting on rumors about her health, which had previously been the province of the right-wing fever swamps from which Trump has drawn much of his support and campaign staff.

In other words, the news of the moment will likely result in some polls at both the national and swing-state level that do not look so good for Clinton. Hey look, it is already happening!

These polls will lead partisans to add to an already-vibrant chorus of grumbling about Clinton’s inability to already demolish Trump and political writers who will tell you that the carrot-colored real-estate mogul has “momentum.” Hey look, that too is already happening!

This would all be a lot more frightening if the narrowing polls had not been totally predictable, independent of any caterwauling from the media about health scares and Kinsley gaffes. For we have now come to the Great Tightening, that point of every recent presidential election cycle when the candidates see their numbers in national and swing-state polls inch closer to each other. Predictably, this is being followed by the Great Freak-Out, when supporters of the leading candidate set their hair on fire and run through the public square screaming for water. But this weekend’s stumbles by Clinton are also why articles that claim Trump has “momentum” tell us nothing more than that the writer had a quota to fill for the day. Momentum is an overrated concept in national elections at the presidential level, especially this late in the game.

In 2012, for example, Mitt Romney was supposed to have momentum after he performed much more strongly in his first debate against President Obama than most people expected. During this year’s primaries, Bernie Sanders was said to have momentum when he won the Michigan primary, and again when he won Wisconsin a few weeks later.

-snip-

http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/

[madaboutharry]

1. Thank you for posting.

[BumRushDaShow]

2. "Mitt Romney was supposed to have momentum"

Yes and people on DU lit their hair on fire and pronounced Obama DOA. Election over.

[sarae]

3. This line in the article made me LOL

Referring to Trump...

"he’s got skin so thin he’s liable to order an invasion of China if Panda Express forgets to include a fortune cookie with his take-out order."

[uponit7771]

6. +1

[NewJeffCT]

22. that's awesome

and, sadly, probably not much of an exaggeration.

[TeamPooka]

42. The kids have inherited Trump's skin. It may not be orange but it's just as thin. nt

[Ligyron]

4. I'm not going to be concerned until 538 puts Hillary below a 60% chance

and even then she'll prob be OK.

What I'm worried about are the down ballot candidates 'cause without a Dem Senate it will be hard to get anything truly worthwhile done.

[berksdem]

12. sadly...

Last edited Thu Sep 15, 2016, 10:03 AM - Edit history (1)

that could be next week the way his model has been trending. Right now it is 62.6% for polls only and 61.7% for polls-plus forecast...

[Ligyron]

25. Welcome to DU berkdem!

It pays to be optimistic around here.

[berksdem]

29. LOL... thank you...

I am typically optimistic but the thought of DT becoming POTUS has me on edge lately!!

[uponit7771]

5. +1, looking at RCP avg from 08 and 12 she's performing on par or above Obama in RV models but LV

... models this year are all over the place CNN going back to 2004 when black voting in Ohio were outrageously suppressed

[berksdem]

7. when there is smoke there

is usually fire. I am not saying that HRC is dead in the water but I feel like her campaign needs to make a major shift in the eyes of the public. Her secrecy in the eyes of the voting public makes her look distrustful. Anymore these days I feel like the only liberal that believe Don the Con has a very real chance of winning this election.

This election is not in the bag and that is why we should all be working to GOTV. Don't underestimate the Trump folks...

[sobenji]

9. You're not the only one

It's getting scary, but it's also going to make me work harder.

[berksdem]

11. good to know...

that I am not the only one!

Most of my compadres believe this will be a landslide after the debates. I dont believe it for a minute. We can post every scandal and lie that comes from the Trump campaign - and you know what? It will do nothing to damage him in the eyes of his voters.

[DownriverDem]

26. Maybe so

but in the eyes of the rest of the voters it might make a difference. About the Ohio poll showing Trump up 5 points? CNN reporter that they under polled those under 50. WTF????????

[catbyte]

27. The key phrase is "his voters." There aren't enough of "his voters" to win the election.

It's up to us to GOTV to ensure that there are more of us than there are of them at the polls on November 8, and to the polls before that day in states where early voting is allowed.

[berksdem]

10. +1

agree with this... although, right now that is not an option and HRC needs to win. Trump can't get to the White House.

[book_worm]

15. Of course we don't know if that would

be the case right now when the media & Republicans would go into overdrive against him and his "socialistic" views which would raise taxes, etc. We can't go by polls that were from months ago to know what the result would be today. I believe Clinton will win just as I think that Bernie would win, too.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

16. "just" sayin is still saying. Don't. Please see Terms of Service re Fighting the Primaries is Over.

[R B Garr]

19. He was not vetted by the media. So those polls were always bogus

until that happened. He was in an enviable but unrealistic position of not being accountable for any of his positions.

[berksdem]

14. interesting take...

with the polls showing what they are today how do you predict a landslide?

[Wounded Bear]

34. Electoral college...

She starts with over 240 EC votes baked in. Trump needs a virtual sweep of the swing states to pull this off. Very unlikely.

National polls of the popular vote are not completely meaningless, but they are more of an indicator than a real data point.

Even with the polls this close, if the election was held now she would carry over 300-350 ECV easy.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

17. Yes. Trump & Republicans must be crushed electorally. For down-ticket & to ensure no Trump II. . nt

[geek tragedy]

20. How does a candidate lose Ohio and win a national landslide? nt

[LS_Editor]

18. National polls, especially, mean nothing.

It's all about how the states breakdown.

[sweetapogee]

21. it all comes down

to which candidate gets on message and stays on message.

A question to ponder is who at this point in time has control of the playing field?

[Loge23]

23. What is Hillary's campaign waiting for?

Perhaps the campaign is banking on the debates, as I am ever so hopefully.
Sadly, this country is easily fooled - see 2004, Election.
Through all of the lies and bombast, momentum is trending for the Racist candidate. Do the voters of this country have no shame?
The ramifications of a Trump election win will be devastating and not only to those of us who reject the hatred of the right, but also to many uneducated and under-informed Trump voters.
The SCOTUS situation will be long-lasting and potentially fatal to any notion of a truly free democratic nation.
I predict at least hundreds of thousands of people will leave the country, making it even harder to overcome the virus of intolerance and hatred that has infected this country.
Whatever the plans of the DNC and HRC campaign, it's clearly not working. We need a reboot but fast.
The prevailing negative image that Hillary is dealing with is based on lies and innuendo. Why can't the campaign present her in a more agreeable light? If they can't, we're screwed and screwed badly.
Does Hillary want this or not? It's time to show it.

[berksdem]

24. nailed it!

You put into words exactly how I feel... well done

[radius777]

37. Agree. Kerry destroyed Bush in all debates, yet still lost the election.

Kerry ran a much better campaign than Gore did, and made a clear enough case to the country that Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld was dangerous and had rushed into Iraq under dubious pretense. Kerry was not exciting (like Hillary), but (also like Hillary) was imminently qualified, a good debater (especially compared to Bush) - and yet the voters still chose Bush.

Kerry also had the benefit of the left being fully mobilzed and strongly behind him, having been burned in 2000 by Nader the left all vowed 'anybody but Bush' even though they may've not loved Kerry.

Hillary has issues with the left and with young voters, although she is certain to do much better with latinos (40% of whom voted for Bush, Trump is lucky if he gets half that number), blacks and women.

Ultimately Team H/Dems must get its act together or it will start to slip away. Trump's deplorables are highly energized, while our side is not. Obama, who is a great campaigner, is our secret weapon, who can rally enthusiasm and the youth vote in a way that Hillary cannot.

[Loge23]

38. Great points - thanks (eom)

[NHDEMFORLIFE]

39. Swift-boating

Kerry's great flaw: He failed to forcefully respond to the swift-boat crap. He has admitted this countless times in the last 12 years. He thought it was so outrageous that it would just fade away. He was a Purple Heart winner, after all, and Bush had daddy pull strings to keep him out of harm's way, so people would be savvy enough to see through all the nonsense.
Fatal miscalculation there.
And, as horrible a president as Bush II was, incumbency has at least a small benefit, certainly one that comes in handy in a close election. Some thugs in Ohio helped him, too.

Hillary has been a punching bag for the past week, but once the dust clears Trump's big mouth and leaky brain pan will regain the media's attention. Actually, I think they already have.

[radius777]

40. Agree, which is usually our side's problem

in responding to outlandish rightwing memes that fester and eventually make their way into the mainstream media and wind up framing the race.

Clinton/Gore campaigns in the 90's are the exception to this. Carville/Begala et al had the 'war room' and they obsessively monitored the news/memes and responded quickly and effectively to everything. They were sharp and tough, and that is what is sorely lacking in Dems since then.

Team H has run a very mediocre campaign, they need to connect better with voters (throw more 'red meat' to excite the base especially), simplify and clarify the message, and most importantly - take back control of the media narratives.

[tonyt53]

28. What arm chair quarterback are ignoring for some reason, is the actual population centers

Easy to take a poll around a state. But if the people responding are out in the middle of nowhere, then their response "encompasses" far fewer voters than a person living in a densely populated area. The state of OH is dominated by a some very large population centers. The more rural areas will vote for Trump. The population centers will vote for Hillary. She will have more votes and take the electoral votes. Same as PA

[NYC Liberal]

30. Obama and Romney were essentially tied around this time in 2012.

It seems people forget that.

There was a LOT of concern and then shit really hit the fan after the first debate.

Obama ended up winning by 4-5 points.

[michreject]

31. The polls had Clinton leading by 10 pts in MI on election day

How did Bernie win?

I don't trust any poll.

[muntrv]

32. The debates have not happenned either.

[colsohlibgal]

33. I Can't Believe He Will Win

I think he could be getting a ridiculous share of the vote in serious yahoo states loaded with Bundy types.

Hillary should win in the important states with more big metro areas. She should but....maybe this nation is even more widely ignorant than I believe.

[Jamaal510]

35. If she starts

losing in most battleground states (and if her numbers somehow tank after the debates), then I'll panic. But right now, this is just noise. Elections aren't won based on the popular vote, anyway, plus she is actually polling slightly better than how Obama was this time in 2012 against Romney.

[Monk06]

36. Here are the Obama Romney poll results from 2012 notice the graph from September to Nov

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

This is the same pattern we will see this time and is in fact already trending in the same direction

Now everyone can just calm the fuck down Expect a lot of give and take in the next six weeks but Trump is going to die after the debates

He knows is that is why he's trying to control the moderating

[TeamPooka]

41. GOTV!!!