Clinton LEADING among Registered Voters in.....Texas.

[brooklynite]

Texas Lyceum Poll:

If the 2016 election for president were held today, would you vote for (RANDOMIZE) the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the Democratic ticket of Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, or haven’t you thought enough about it?

(Among likely voters: n = 502, MOE +/- 4.37%)
1. Trump/Pence 42%
2. Clinton/Kaine 36
3. Haven’t thought enough about it 15
4. DON’T KNOW / REFUSED / NA 6

(Among registered: n = 862, MOE +/- 3.34%)
1. Trump/Pence 35%
2. Clinton/Kaine 39
3. Haven’t thought enough about it 18
4. DON’T KNOW / REFUSED / NA 8

[misterhighwasted]

1. To be this close in Tx, at this point in the election is very good news

Bring on the election!!

[tinrobot]

2. Get. out. the. vote.

We have a MUCH stronger ground game than he does.

Let's make this happen.

[unc70]

3. Makes we wonder about likely voter model

When you get to this stage of the election polling, the overriding factor is the model used to determine who are the likely voters among those polled. The Repubs are a bit stronger among LV than among RV; the critical point is just how much stronger. This Texas poll highlights the differences. Makes me curious about their screening rules.

[RAFisher]

6. The model isn't complicated. It's all based on how they asker the questions.

Likely voters are defined as those respondents who are registered to vote, say that they have voted in “Every” or “Almost” every election on Q3, and are “Extremely” or “Somewhat” interested in politics on Q2

The only problem I could see with that is that it excludes registered voters or are extremely/somewhat interested in this election but have not voted in most elections. Someone who only votes every 4 years would be in this category. That would most likely help Clinton. However there could also be people who haven't voted in years but want to vote for Trump because he'll make the KKK cool again. On the surface it looks like non-likely voters favor Clinton but the poll doesn't tell us if they are inconsistent voters, not interested in this election or a combination of both.

[snooper2]

7. I got polled (on my fucking cellphone) last week...lots of questions on Texas races

Questions about how I thought our shitty governor is doing, about seven minutes long-

They simple asked was I registered to vote and said yes. Of course said was voting for Hillary. Said for local races would look at the candidates running-

At the end they asked if I would support a new National Tea Party

[hamsterjill]

4. Oh, please let this be so!!!!!

I want my beloved Texas BACK to what it is SUPPOSED TO BE!!!

Blue!!!!!

[Gothmog]

5. Texas is not a red state but a non-voting state

We need to get Texans to vote

[uponit7771]

9. +1, I've been saying this for 2 years now... in Texas there's no ground game to GOTV in east

... Tarrant County and East Dallas County... among Latinos.

Its like the DNC is leaving those sections for a rainy day or something

[Exilednight]

11. It's the same in North Houston. The ground game in Houston sucks and it's the 4th largest

city in the United States. Sure, we can win Mayoral contests with 18% turnout, but not the national election.

The suburbs are solidly blue, but the city should be red.

[uponit7771]

12. +1, yes.. yes... yes !! How in the hell does Forth Worth.. a city bigger than Vegas... vote red?!!?

.. Cause there's no GOTV there.

I wish my health was up to par, I would be pounding concrete to turn this state blue

[NewJeffCT]

8. need to drive up that turnout

maybe HRC opening an office in Houston will help? Get the Castro brothers out there as well.

[DemocraticWing]

10. The barrier in Texas is that Hispanics aren't considered to be as much of "likely voters"

If Hispanics turn out in huge numbers, more than in the past, then the Democrats could eek out a victory there. And with Cheeto Hitler on the ballot, we might just see that happen.