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The Velveteen Ocelot

(115,520 posts)
Thu Sep 15, 2016, 01:46 PM Sep 2016

Take a deep breath, folks. It's not as bad as it looks.

http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/

In the current race, Clinton still has the edge, thanks to the underlying factors. A generic Democratic candidate still has a natural majority in some of the largest, most electoral-vote-rich states. She still has strong on-the-ground organization and voter-turnout operations in battleground states. The Trump campaign is nowhere close to catching up with the number of operatives on the ground and state campaign offices to drive them.

Yes, the polls have tightened in some of the swing states and may still tighten more. Yes, this is affecting the down-ballot races to the point where it may impact the Democrats’ chances of retaking the Senate. Yes, that will hurt Clinton’s legislative agenda if she wins. Yes, if you assume everything lines up perfectly for Trump, he still has a slightly less narrow path to victory than he did last week.

But the presidential race was always going to be competitive, much as liberals might have laughed like stoned hyenas when it became clear the GOP was going to nominate Donald Trump. The electorate is so polarized and the parties so ideologically rigid that any Republican candidate always starts with a floor slightly north of 40 percent of the vote. Any Democrat was always likely to be just a few points higher than that. The onus was always going to be on the GOP candidate to run a perfect campaign to catch up, something Trump has proven incapable of doing.


GOTV. Don't panic.
22 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Take a deep breath, folks. It's not as bad as it looks. (Original Post) The Velveteen Ocelot Sep 2016 OP
And remain enthusiastic about Hillary/Kaine. Express this like to your friends. ffr Sep 2016 #1
especially to pollsters DeminPennswoods Sep 2016 #6
There is work to do, until Hillary is elected this is not over, GOTV, go and vote, solicit others to Thinkingabout Sep 2016 #2
PA/VA/CO/FL is what is going to save this. Dawson Leery Sep 2016 #3
stoned hyenas. mopinko Sep 2016 #4
"the presidential race was always going to be competitive" progressoid Sep 2016 #5
Remember that talk about Arizona and Georgia being in play from a few weeks ago. geek tragedy Sep 2016 #7
She needs to get more media attention that isn't Ilsa Sep 2016 #15
it's not bad enough to panic, but it'll only take a little bit more swing to become that bad paulkienitz Sep 2016 #8
He's not flipping PA BumRushDaShow Sep 2016 #18
Ground game Coolest Ranger Sep 2016 #9
I heard one fellow on either CNN or MSNBC (I was switching back & forth) calimary Sep 2016 #11
Caucasian male here. I certainly HATE Himmler's bastard child. Dawson Leery Sep 2016 #20
worst thing rtracey Sep 2016 #13
Trust me on this Coolest Ranger Sep 2016 #14
That's why he's calling on his brownshirts Rocknrule Sep 2016 #21
Maybe he will be slapped with a warrant or subpoena. SleeplessinSoCal Sep 2016 #10
Trump is not going to win Chakaconcarne Sep 2016 #12
Riddle me this. ananda Sep 2016 #16
Okay, good, but is anyone paying attention to 538 lately? LiberalLoner Sep 2016 #17
This is a blip with a batch of polls taken during a bad period for the campaign WI_DEM Sep 2016 #19
K&R! DemonGoddess Sep 2016 #22

DeminPennswoods

(15,264 posts)
6. especially to pollsters
Thu Sep 15, 2016, 02:26 PM
Sep 2016

When asked how enthusiastic/engaged/aware/following/certain to vote, always answer in the most affirmative way possible. That way you won't get discounted by LV screens.

Dawson Leery

(19,348 posts)
3. PA/VA/CO/FL is what is going to save this.
Thu Sep 15, 2016, 01:59 PM
Sep 2016

Iowa/Nevada/Ohio are not looking to good right now. Still, how can Donnie win without any ground operations?
They account for a about 4 points.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
7. Remember that talk about Arizona and Georgia being in play from a few weeks ago.
Thu Sep 15, 2016, 02:28 PM
Sep 2016

Seems quaint.

Clinton is disappearing from this race. This race has become all about Trump--what Trump says, what other people are saying about Trump, why Trump is awful, what did Trump say now.

She's not losing, but she's not winning either.



Ilsa

(61,687 posts)
15. She needs to get more media attention that isn't
Thu Sep 15, 2016, 04:10 PM
Sep 2016

criticism, and we need some bombshells on trump. He needs to go off the rails again with his lunatic ideas.

paulkienitz

(1,296 posts)
8. it's not bad enough to panic, but it'll only take a little bit more swing to become that bad
Thu Sep 15, 2016, 02:37 PM
Sep 2016

If we take Nate Silver's current map (where Florida is now pro-Trump by a tenth of a percent), Trump can now win by flipping just one rust-belt state, such as Pennsylvania.

BumRushDaShow

(128,257 posts)
18. He's not flipping PA
Thu Sep 15, 2016, 04:48 PM
Sep 2016

Not gonna happen.

We put a Democratic governor in during an off-year election (2014) breaking a decades-long tradition of incumbents getting a 2nd term and the incumbent who was ejected was a Republican. 'Nuff said.

Coolest Ranger

(2,034 posts)
9. Ground game
Thu Sep 15, 2016, 02:38 PM
Sep 2016

she got this. Black vote, she got this. Black women will make sure their friends and family get to the polls. She's got this.

calimary

(81,044 posts)
11. I heard one fellow on either CNN or MSNBC (I was switching back & forth)
Thu Sep 15, 2016, 03:04 PM
Sep 2016

in connection with the Tom Joyner radio show - and he said, flat out, "Black women HATE Republicans." He minced NO words.

Hell, you don't have to be a Black woman to hate the CONS. I'm a white woman and I hate the CONSl. I don't even call them "Republicans." They're a vile scourge on our country, they believe in things that only support small slivers or shrinking demographics of the electorate - the rich, the religious fanatics, aging white men, and angry rude belligerent Deplorables. And you don't even have to be a woman to hate the CONS. My aging white husband reviles them, too!

Dawson Leery

(19,348 posts)
20. Caucasian male here. I certainly HATE Himmler's bastard child.
Thu Sep 15, 2016, 07:01 PM
Sep 2016

This is the same Republican party that wanted to go with Hitler against Stalin.

 

rtracey

(2,062 posts)
13. worst thing
Thu Sep 15, 2016, 03:35 PM
Sep 2016

The worst thing any Trump supporter can see on election day is what we saw 4 and 8 years ago, long election lines with Blacks, latinos, seniors, GLBT standing waiting to vote......

Coolest Ranger

(2,034 posts)
14. Trust me on this
Thu Sep 15, 2016, 03:36 PM
Sep 2016

when that happens I am going to be cheering wondering how bad El Trumpo will get his behind whooped

SleeplessinSoCal

(9,079 posts)
10. Maybe he will be slapped with a warrant or subpoena.
Thu Sep 15, 2016, 02:40 PM
Sep 2016

It's more than a 50/50 chance he has done many illegal business deals. And investigative journalism is on that.

LiberalLoner

(9,761 posts)
17. Okay, good, but is anyone paying attention to 538 lately?
Thu Sep 15, 2016, 04:15 PM
Sep 2016

Every time I go check, it's a few points closer to a dead heat. Is anyone else shocked by the numbers? I am shocked and worried.

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)
19. This is a blip with a batch of polls taken during a bad period for the campaign
Thu Sep 15, 2016, 04:51 PM
Sep 2016

she will begin gaining again.

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