Trump and Clinton in tight race in Texas, new poll finds

[book_worm]

Less than eight weeks before the November election, GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump has a 7-point lead over Democrat Hillary Clinton in Texas among likely voters, but only a 1-point lead among all registered voters, according to results of the Texas Lyceum poll released Thursday.

The poll is the latest to suggest that the deep red state of Texas may witness a closer-than-usual contest this fall. Trump is leading with 39 percent to Clinton’s 32 percent, Johnson’s 9 percent and Stein’s 3 percent. One-on-one, Trump leads Clinton by 6 points, 42 to 36 percent, suggesting that, in Texas at least, Johnson and Stein are not substantially skewing the race.

The best news for Democrats in the Lyceum poll may be that the surge in Latino turnout that Democrats have been waiting on for years, may finally arrive.

The poll’s likely voter pool was 26 percent Hispanic. Usually, Hispanics make only between 17 and 21 percent of the electorate, and even if if that share only increased into the low 20s, that would be a significant boost for Texas Democrats that they could build on in future election.

“Democrats have been handed their best opportunity ever to increase Hispanic turnout,” Blank said.

http://www.mystatesman.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/lyceum-poll-finds-trump-and-clinton-in-tight-race-/nsYXs/?icmp=statesman_internallink_invitationbox_apr2013_statesmanstubtomystatesmanpremium

[dubyadiprecession]

1. I don't know why they bother using a registered voters poll, it means jack squat as..

an indicator of how people will vote. Likely voters are the only ones that matter.

[WI_DEM]

2. they are using both and registered voters is not "jack squat"

In 2012 likely voters often had Romney ahead while Obama was consistently ahead among registered voters and they are using 'likely voters' as those who are most enthused not taking into account that people who say they "probably" will vote actually will vote and a good GOTV effort can do that--which Hillary has and Trump doesn't.

[DarthDem]

3. Because . . .

. . . the registered voters model decreases the opportunity for the pollster to inject its own bias into the result through the "likely voter screen," which ALWAYS - ALWAYS - reduces the numbers of a Democrat running for president. Even if Hillary had not been out of sight for a few days while she recovered, the "race" in the polls would have tightened anyway because it's around this time that all the pollsters break out their likely voter screens.

The more neutral registered voter measure has its flaws, but is far more useful, at least this far out, for predicting results for the Democratic candidate.

On another note, it's interesting to me how the parade of supposedly legitimate bad poll numbers for Hillary don't seem to be extending to Texas. I wonder why not? It's almost as though some certain pollsters forgot to put their thumb on the scale in TX to do narrative-driving and generate "OMG IT'S A RAAAAAAAACE" headlines.

[Gothmog]

4. Texas is not a red state but a non-voting state

If we can turn out the voters, Texas will be blue