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book_worm

(15,951 posts)
Thu Sep 15, 2016, 05:51 PM Sep 2016

New Michigan Poll: Clinton: 38% Trump: 35%

GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (WOOD) — The race for the White House is tightening in Michigan, according to a new EPIC-MRA poll commissioned by WOOD TV8.

EPIC-MRA surveyed 600 potential voters between Sept. 10 and Sept. 13. When asked who they would vote for if the presidential election were held today, the results were a virtual tie.

A total of 38 percent said they would vote for Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, compared to 35 percent for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump. However, the results are well within the survey’s 4 percent margin of error.

Third party candidates also took a larger share of the vote compared to last month’s poll. Libertarian Gary Johnson earned 10 percent of the vote and Green Party candidate Jill Stein captured a 4 percent share.

The majority of those surveyed, 82 percent, identified as white. A total of 43 percent identified as Democrats, 6 percent more than Republicans. However, 36 percent described themselves as conservative, followed by moderate (35 percent) and liberal (20 percent).

http://woodtv.com/2016/09/15/clinton-trump-race-tightening-new-poll-shows/

As a comparison here are the polls of Michigan from 2012--This same pollster had Obama ahead in early October by only 3-points after leading by 10 in September.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mi/michigan_romney_vs_obama-1811.html#polls

19 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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New Michigan Poll: Clinton: 38% Trump: 35% (Original Post) book_worm Sep 2016 OP
Dear God, it's really happening ram2008 Sep 2016 #1
No, he's not democrattotheend Sep 2016 #3
you are right. Hillary was out a week. She is now back in the groove, and the debates still_one Sep 2016 #13
I really feel sick... Farmgirl1961 Sep 2016 #4
Some is of course... LenaBaby61 Sep 2016 #12
Thank You for Your Deeply Felt Concerns! DarthDem Sep 2016 #17
You likes you some poll threads! LOL daligirrl Sep 2016 #19
Sarcasm? Charles Bukowski Sep 2016 #5
Thank you for your concern Uponthegears Sep 2016 #6
In the end Obama won by 10 democrattotheend Sep 2016 #2
HRC like Pres O on same plain. 82% white? Iliyah Sep 2016 #7
Thank you, I don't do cross tabs of polling but when there's such a stark difference between LV and uponit7771 Sep 2016 #10
Another one of these LV vs RV polls... no one can answer the question which polling technique LV or uponit7771 Sep 2016 #8
I can't fathom the short fingered vulgarian having that much support her (in MI) etherealtruth Sep 2016 #9
Not bad Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 #11
exactly. She was out for a week for gosh sakes still_one Sep 2016 #14
It seems that some HRC's support is switching to Charles Bukowski Sep 2016 #15
Good thing also is that tRump has a ceiling ..... LenaBaby61 Sep 2016 #16
Yes, this poll was taken during the time of media hysteria with her health book_worm Sep 2016 #18

democrattotheend

(11,605 posts)
3. No, he's not
Thu Sep 15, 2016, 05:56 PM
Sep 2016

I am concerned (yes, I said it), but not panicked yet. There are still 8 weeks, a lot of the tightening is attributable to the switch to likely voter screen, the debates have not happened yet, and the media is engineering the narrative to make it close so more people watch. It is annoying but in some ways it helps Hillary. If she were 10 points up on November 7 I would be very worried about her marginal supporters staying home or voting 3rd party because they assumed it was safe to do so.

2012 was the best possible scenario in terms of polls, because thinks shifted Obama's way only in the very last days of the campaign, and so the polls looked really close going into election day and nobody got complacent.

Also, bear in mind that while the race is closer than it should be, Hillary is still winning nationally and in enough states to get 273 electoral votes.

still_one

(92,117 posts)
13. you are right. Hillary was out a week. She is now back in the groove, and the debates
Thu Sep 15, 2016, 06:10 PM
Sep 2016

are right around the corner.

I understand the anxiety, but I sure wish they would at least wait until next week, and preferably until after the first debate to see where we stand.

After the first debate is when I plan to do phone banking and canvasing to GOTV

You are right, nobody should get complacent

Thanks

Farmgirl1961

(1,493 posts)
4. I really feel sick...
Thu Sep 15, 2016, 05:57 PM
Sep 2016

I just don't get it...I don't understand how all these polls can be tightening. Who's changing their mind? I didn't think that there were many undecided voters out there? Is it merely a polling strategy or something else? I really, really, really, really want to believe that all of this is faulty polling data, but it seems like one swing state after another is dropping.

Time to take a break and think happy thoughts and figure out what I can do to GOTV

LenaBaby61

(6,974 posts)
12. Some is of course...
Thu Sep 15, 2016, 06:09 PM
Sep 2016

Natural tightening, and Rethugs coalescing around tRump. Some is faulty polling being pushed by the likes of ORO/CNN for the horse race narrative so people will watch their network=ad $$$$. Plus, Hillary did have a very up and down week, which was exacerbated by the so-called Liberal media.

I'm put off by these pollsters who are ginning up a horse race poll via their methodology because they want viewers, but we can't not afford to GOTV. Phone bank from home/Even in Blue states, donate if we can. Hey, that's all we can do until the tide turns. I know I may not get favorable views by some by saying this, but I have friends who are BANKING all they have on the upcoming debates--that's IF tRump debates. He's in a win/win situation IMHO. If he doesn't debate, the media won't ding him, but if he does and doesn't throw up up oh himself or fall on the state in a fit of rage, he'll be declared the winner of whatever debate. Yep, the media has been shameful but predictable in allowing that man to get away with saying/doing anything he's done which has been horrible. You see how they ding and continue to ding Hillary for her: Health, emails still a bit of talk about Benghazi, though not much. Gotta put our heads down and keep on pushing forward in every way and not give up. Hillary gave what I thought was a great speech today and from what I saw. She looked great and sounded strong. SHE hasn't given up. Not by a long shot, but of course my friend who watched MSNRNC post her speech said the media (Toad/Kornwacky) is still stuck on stupid IE: Hillary's health, meanwhile tRump is getting a pass on being obese and unhealthy from what we can gather from the scant medical info he's given out on a TV show doctor's show no less, and there is NO MORE talk about his taxes. He's succeeded in getting away with that.

Welp, go think happy thoughts and please whatever you can do to GOTV

DarthDem

(5,255 posts)
17. Thank You for Your Deeply Felt Concerns!
Thu Sep 15, 2016, 06:44 PM
Sep 2016

Out of your just barely 100+ posts, many of them today, I think you've managed to drive home your deep concern. Thank you!
 

Charles Bukowski

(1,132 posts)
5. Sarcasm?
Thu Sep 15, 2016, 05:57 PM
Sep 2016

"This same pollster had Obama ahead in early October by only 3-points after leading by 10 in September."

 

Uponthegears

(1,499 posts)
6. Thank you for your concern
Thu Sep 15, 2016, 05:58 PM
Sep 2016
This same pollster had Obama ahead in early October by only 3-points after leading by 10 in September


Obama ended up winning Michigan by 10 on 2012 and 17 in 2008.

Iliyah

(25,111 posts)
7. HRC like Pres O on same plain. 82% white?
Thu Sep 15, 2016, 05:59 PM
Sep 2016

Wow, polling for POC sucks. Same shit in the OH and Fl polls.

uponit7771

(90,335 posts)
10. Thank you, I don't do cross tabs of polling but when there's such a stark difference between LV and
Thu Sep 15, 2016, 06:01 PM
Sep 2016

... RV then it makes sense to look.

uponit7771

(90,335 posts)
8. Another one of these LV vs RV polls... no one can answer the question which polling technique LV or
Thu Sep 15, 2016, 05:59 PM
Sep 2016

... RV has been historically more accurate

etherealtruth

(22,165 posts)
9. I can't fathom the short fingered vulgarian having that much support her (in MI)
Thu Sep 15, 2016, 06:00 PM
Sep 2016

....but, I live in Metro Detroit. I imagine (aside from the racists, xenophobes, misogynists ...) most of his support is from the non urban/suburban areas of the state

 

Charles Bukowski

(1,132 posts)
15. It seems that some HRC's support is switching to
Thu Sep 15, 2016, 06:17 PM
Sep 2016

3rd party candidates, but they'll most likely come back.

The good news is they're not going to Trump (35% is dreadful). I wouldn't worry about the Blue Wall states just yet.

LenaBaby61

(6,974 posts)
16. Good thing also is that tRump has a ceiling .....
Thu Sep 15, 2016, 06:35 PM
Sep 2016

OF the mid to low 40's, and it'll probably stay that way.

He's not really picking up tons of support. Hillary has lost some of hers. Of course the convention bounce was going to fade. But any way you look at it, her health issues and the deplorable comments seems to have dinged her, and especially when the media keeps harping on her health and not on tRumps at all. He can go to a TV medical doctor, had him a paper and that TV doctor declare HIM medically fit although he eats unhealthy foods, is OBESE with a 30 range BMI and what 'could' be future heart issues (Takes statin and is 70). I'm wondering if one of these right-winged organizations out here in California will run a right-winged poll where they poll only 75 year olds, who voted for Reagan when California was DEEP RED and who refer only to him as Dutch "polls" showing that tRump is withing 1 point of Hillary in California. Heck, I'm ready for it. By the way, the last poll I saw which was credible a week ago or so showed Hillary up by almost 22 points here in the Golden state.

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