2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNew Michigan Poll: Clinton: 38% Trump: 35%
GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (WOOD) The race for the White House is tightening in Michigan, according to a new EPIC-MRA poll commissioned by WOOD TV8.
EPIC-MRA surveyed 600 potential voters between Sept. 10 and Sept. 13. When asked who they would vote for if the presidential election were held today, the results were a virtual tie.
A total of 38 percent said they would vote for Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, compared to 35 percent for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump. However, the results are well within the surveys 4 percent margin of error.
Third party candidates also took a larger share of the vote compared to last months poll. Libertarian Gary Johnson earned 10 percent of the vote and Green Party candidate Jill Stein captured a 4 percent share.
The majority of those surveyed, 82 percent, identified as white. A total of 43 percent identified as Democrats, 6 percent more than Republicans. However, 36 percent described themselves as conservative, followed by moderate (35 percent) and liberal (20 percent).
http://woodtv.com/2016/09/15/clinton-trump-race-tightening-new-poll-shows/
As a comparison here are the polls of Michigan from 2012--This same pollster had Obama ahead in early October by only 3-points after leading by 10 in September.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mi/michigan_romney_vs_obama-1811.html#polls
ram2008
(1,238 posts)Trump is on the verge of being elected POTUS.
democrattotheend
(11,605 posts)I am concerned (yes, I said it), but not panicked yet. There are still 8 weeks, a lot of the tightening is attributable to the switch to likely voter screen, the debates have not happened yet, and the media is engineering the narrative to make it close so more people watch. It is annoying but in some ways it helps Hillary. If she were 10 points up on November 7 I would be very worried about her marginal supporters staying home or voting 3rd party because they assumed it was safe to do so.
2012 was the best possible scenario in terms of polls, because thinks shifted Obama's way only in the very last days of the campaign, and so the polls looked really close going into election day and nobody got complacent.
Also, bear in mind that while the race is closer than it should be, Hillary is still winning nationally and in enough states to get 273 electoral votes.
still_one
(92,117 posts)are right around the corner.
I understand the anxiety, but I sure wish they would at least wait until next week, and preferably until after the first debate to see where we stand.
After the first debate is when I plan to do phone banking and canvasing to GOTV
You are right, nobody should get complacent
Thanks
Farmgirl1961
(1,493 posts)I just don't get it...I don't understand how all these polls can be tightening. Who's changing their mind? I didn't think that there were many undecided voters out there? Is it merely a polling strategy or something else? I really, really, really, really want to believe that all of this is faulty polling data, but it seems like one swing state after another is dropping.
Time to take a break and think happy thoughts and figure out what I can do to GOTV
LenaBaby61
(6,974 posts)Natural tightening, and Rethugs coalescing around tRump. Some is faulty polling being pushed by the likes of ORO/CNN for the horse race narrative so people will watch their network=ad $$$$. Plus, Hillary did have a very up and down week, which was exacerbated by the so-called Liberal media.
I'm put off by these pollsters who are ginning up a horse race poll via their methodology because they want viewers, but we can't not afford to GOTV. Phone bank from home/Even in Blue states, donate if we can. Hey, that's all we can do until the tide turns. I know I may not get favorable views by some by saying this, but I have friends who are BANKING all they have on the upcoming debates--that's IF tRump debates. He's in a win/win situation IMHO. If he doesn't debate, the media won't ding him, but if he does and doesn't throw up up oh himself or fall on the state in a fit of rage, he'll be declared the winner of whatever debate. Yep, the media has been shameful but predictable in allowing that man to get away with saying/doing anything he's done which has been horrible. You see how they ding and continue to ding Hillary for her: Health, emails still a bit of talk about Benghazi, though not much. Gotta put our heads down and keep on pushing forward in every way and not give up. Hillary gave what I thought was a great speech today and from what I saw. She looked great and sounded strong. SHE hasn't given up. Not by a long shot, but of course my friend who watched MSNRNC post her speech said the media (Toad/Kornwacky) is still stuck on stupid IE: Hillary's health, meanwhile tRump is getting a pass on being obese and unhealthy from what we can gather from the scant medical info he's given out on a TV show doctor's show no less, and there is NO MORE talk about his taxes. He's succeeded in getting away with that.
Welp, go think happy thoughts and please whatever you can do to GOTV
DarthDem
(5,255 posts)Out of your just barely 100+ posts, many of them today, I think you've managed to drive home your deep concern. Thank you!
daligirrl
(620 posts)Charles Bukowski
(1,132 posts)"This same pollster had Obama ahead in early October by only 3-points after leading by 10 in September."
Uponthegears
(1,499 posts)Obama ended up winning Michigan by 10 on 2012 and 17 in 2008.
democrattotheend
(11,605 posts)Although things did shift decidedly his way after Sandy.
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)Wow, polling for POC sucks. Same shit in the OH and Fl polls.
uponit7771
(90,335 posts)... RV then it makes sense to look.
uponit7771
(90,335 posts)... RV has been historically more accurate
etherealtruth
(22,165 posts)....but, I live in Metro Detroit. I imagine (aside from the racists, xenophobes, misogynists ...) most of his support is from the non urban/suburban areas of the state
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)Still leading at a low ebb. HRC polls start rising next week if this holds.
still_one
(92,117 posts)Charles Bukowski
(1,132 posts)3rd party candidates, but they'll most likely come back.
The good news is they're not going to Trump (35% is dreadful). I wouldn't worry about the Blue Wall states just yet.
LenaBaby61
(6,974 posts)OF the mid to low 40's, and it'll probably stay that way.
He's not really picking up tons of support. Hillary has lost some of hers. Of course the convention bounce was going to fade. But any way you look at it, her health issues and the deplorable comments seems to have dinged her, and especially when the media keeps harping on her health and not on tRumps at all. He can go to a TV medical doctor, had him a paper and that TV doctor declare HIM medically fit although he eats unhealthy foods, is OBESE with a 30 range BMI and what 'could' be future heart issues (Takes statin and is 70). I'm wondering if one of these right-winged organizations out here in California will run a right-winged poll where they poll only 75 year olds, who voted for Reagan when California was DEEP RED and who refer only to him as Dutch "polls" showing that tRump is withing 1 point of Hillary in California. Heck, I'm ready for it. By the way, the last poll I saw which was credible a week ago or so showed Hillary up by almost 22 points here in the Golden state.