What I've never understood about polls:

[panader0]

I see the polls go up and down--I've seen it for years.
What I don't understand is how some people can change their minds so quickly.
My mind was made up long ago, and no news cycle item will sway that.
The swing in the polls must be from people who don't know what they think.
People who rely upon the media to lead them. I just don't get it.
I vote Democratic.

[NoGoodNamesLeft]

1. Some people don't research and just follow what way the wind is blowing

The media didn't have a lot of motivation to go after the mass amount of lies Trump tells...until today. He pissed in their cheerios and now they are on a mission...and somewhat unified. The next polls should show Hillary gaining ground. This is going to be the weekend focus...ALLLLL weekend. People off from work are going to be hearing about it and it should help Clinton.

[bigwillq]

2. I think there's a lot of folks out there who think politics stink

And that every candidate stinks, and think the government stinks, and the system stinks, and they don't belong to any party but still like to particpate in the democratic process. Politics is a turnoff to many people, but they feel it's their civic duty to vote for somebody.

[Oldem]

3. The same people

aren't polled very time.

[Loki Liesmith]

4. they don't. its intensity

If you are feeling good about polls you are more likely to answer. if depressed, not.

[politicaljunkie41910]

5. The swing in the polls is because you're randomly sampling a few, to project about the masses.

So there is bound to be some room for error in that sample. It's hard these days to get representative samples because fewer and fewer people have landlines and even of those who do, many have caller ID and may not want to talk to a pollster. So while there is a variation in sampling results, in the final analysis, it is a 'guess', and some guesses are better than others. The vast majority of polls don't sample the same people over and over again, so it's not about people changing their minds. There are typically some 'undecideds' and hopefully, those people begin to make up their minds as election day nears. However, the next polling sample will not consist of the same people polled the last time.

[For Freddie]

6. Fugazi Polls

We are coming into the stretch now so there is a lot of speculations and diverse opinions on the polling.
This is about keeping "the two party system" alive in public perception. In reality it is all mostly blather now to get the big
bump needed for Hillary. People who thrive on competitive sports and such like election seasons and the drama involved.
Those of us not living for politics find it draining and ridiculous.
Not everyone loves this way of life or finds it healthy.

The war sports model of it, the "excitement", Tweety people who live and breathe politics, are not all of us. We just want what is best for our families and what is healthy and reasonable.
So... I pay no attention to the polls.
I go to Patty Power on line in the betting community and SEE where the money . You see where people put their money is SERIOUS odds. Not just recreational politics in our tired out "2 party" war sports model.

The polls to me are about appearance that we have a viable
system. We do not.

Trump couldn't put on a better act as ogre if Bill and Hill paid him.
to do so. It is a cartoon.
Making people afraid for their future to up viewership is sadistic.

My 93 year old mother with Lyme Disease in New York is
always upset because her only news is from cable TV.
I finally convinced her to turn the TV off, or at least the news
and read books. Her blood pressure is better. The inflammation has decreased. THIS is what MSM does to you.

For a generation that sat around the radio waiting to hear FDR or Winston it is hard to accept the MSM is full of crap.

For the MSM having to accept most REAL information is only on line, and only those trapped only with cable for information it is
a driving need to CREATE drama and idiocy. The days of Dan Rather in Viet Nam are done. Watching a group of aging journalist jack themselves up is painful . Dinosaur Train on PBS is far more fun.

Now we are in for it until the election, the drama the suspense
the idiocy. Yuk. I've traced back a number of the Fugazi Polls and find them sadistic. No one asks "who are these people and where
is their money coming from?" So those vulnerable, like my poor
Mum get very afraid for their great grandchildren with Trump the Ogre.

This is why I go to Paddy Power and look at betting odds and $$$.
Did ANYONE seriously think Romney had a chance? NO! only little old ladies with Lyme Disease stuck with cable.
My Mum understands bookies. I was raised in a Sicilian neighborhood we were friends with "John the Bookie" who ran a phone room in back of his meat freezer. So I tell my Mom these odds and she feels better. So Do I.

[NewJeffCT]

7. Here are some numbers for you

The actual numbers are swinging up and down because each poll may sample a different balance of Democrats vs Republicans vs Other. Hope the format turns out okay?

Example:
POLL1 - 1000 surveyed, using 41% Democrats (same as 2008 and 2012), 95% voting for Clinton; 32% Republican (same as 2008) with 90% voting Trump; and 29% Indy/Other, with 45% Clinton, 40% Trump and 15% Indy/Other

410 0.95- 0.02- 0.03 --- 389.5- 8.2- 12.3 (Democrats)
320 0.05- 0.9- 0.05 --- 16- 288- 16 (Republicans)
290 0.45- 0.4- 0.15 --- 130.5- 116-43.5 (Indy/Other)

TOTALS: 536- 412.2- 71.8
Clinton leads big 53.6% to 41.2%

POLL2 - 1000 surveyed, but 36% Democratic and 40% Republican and 24% Indy/Other. Using the same breakdown within the groups (95% of Dems for Clinton, etc)
360 0.95- 0.02- 0.03 --- 342- 7.2- 10.8
400 0.05- 0.9- 0.05 --- 20- 360- 20
240 0.45- 0.4- 0.15 --- 108- 96- 36

TOTALS: 470- 463.2- 66.8

OMG, it's neck and neck - Clinton at 47% and Trump at 46%

POLL3 - 1000 surveyed, same percentage as poll 2, but Trump does better with Republics than Clinton does with Democrats, and the Indy percentages flip to Trump - only a small swing overall:
360 0.9- 0.05- 0.05 --- 324- 18- 18
400 0.03- 0.95- 0.02 --- 12- 380- 8
240 0.4- 0.45- 0.15 --- 96- 108- 36

TOTALS: 432- 506- 62

Wow, Trump is crushing Clinton 50.6% to 43.2%.