2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPresident Obama isn't freaking out about the outcome of the Presidential Election...
Are you?
(I attended a dinner with him this evening. He's confident. So am I)
vadermike
(1,415 posts)He saw HRC internal polling memoes ? Lol Shit I hope so I am scared .. I won't be able to fully relax till November 9 !
napi21
(45,806 posts)I think THEY will make a big impact.
Bernardo de La Paz
(48,988 posts)Hortensis
(58,785 posts)thoughts have nevertheless been turning to the nightmare of a far more competent Trump 2, one whom superrich fascist-leaning "libertarians" chose and funded.
If it's clear to us, it's clear to them that 50+ million mind-fucked conservatives have not yet hit bottom even faced with a mentally disordered, astonishingly dysfunctional and vindictive bully-buffoon who is incapable of differentiating between good and evil.
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)Seems like we are playing defense instead of crushing the opposition, mostly because the media controls public opinion. There is a powerful psychological impact on opinion and voting by simply controlling what people think the outcome will be. Taking over the narrative is quite a few percentage points of difference without doing anything else, simple psychology.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)2016 will be much closer than 2012, and they kept their majority in 2012 with ease.
We'll need luck to retake the Senate.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)if he did lack confidence?
Freaking out doesn't help anything, but this is going to be a razor-close election decided by New Hampshire.
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)It should be the easiest knockout in political history because trump is a criminal at best, an incipient Alzheimer's victim in all probability, and the biggest asshole narcissist to ever seek the office.
We need a list of Trump's known crimes.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Republicans are lining up behind Trump and our base is apathetic. And, truth be told, Clinton is a major downgrade from Obama in terms of quality as a candidate.
We're looking at a race that will be decided by New Hampshire.
radius777
(3,635 posts)it won't be so razor thin that NH decides it. She needs to win the debates, obviously, and I think she will. They also need to pound a harder message and box Trump in (like they're doing on the birther issue) better.
The fundamentals are on her side, and she has many more paths to victory than Trump does. As long as she re-assembles the Obama coalition (and Obama is enthusiastic about helping her do this) she will win easily. Plus, latinos and immigrants are going to turn out in force to vote against Trump in a way they've never done before.
Latino vote will sink Trump in Florida - Univision
If Hillary wins FL (even if Trump wins OH) she will be president.
Rstrstx
(1,399 posts)Or knows more stuff about Trump that's still not public knowledge.
Stardust Mirror
(340 posts)Y'know, building dossiers on possible political opponents.
Surely none of the Dulles or the Bushes wouldn't have made that one of their top priorities.
But yeah it seems like President would have access to any info he wanted, what with the Patriot Act and the Surveillance Nation.
PS. Long time lurker. This is my FIRST POST on DU. Hope I'm honoring TOS.
Rstrstx
(1,399 posts)...where - in theory - the President may request to see a return from the IRS, though apparently there is no provision that allows him to make it public. Even if he did have the authority it would look very bad and I don't think he would consider it.
But if some sensitive information has been hacked the government may have an idea of what was taken but has little control over its release. There could be some really damaging information on Trump (or Clinton for that matter) that is a ticking time bomb waiting to go off, with little the government could do.
Stardust Mirror
(340 posts)Thanks for your welcome.
I wouldn't want elected officials to have the authority to release citizen's tax returns without warrants, etc.
But aren't there often 'leaks' fed by administrations to reporters? Like a week before the election, a leak that IlDouche isn't a US citizen and doesn't file US tax returns anymore?
Rex
(65,616 posts)That doubles her chances. Trump has to be scared to death to have a live debate. I don't think he can stay on narrative.
LostinRed
(840 posts)until after the election. Hillary has so many paths to 270 and Trump doesn't he would have to pull Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio to win. He might get one of those but not all three.
Volaris
(10,270 posts)They would have to win like 8 of 9 possible swing states; AND not lose Texas. It was never gonna happen for them.
I don't think it's about us winning. It's about us winning so fucking hard that the ignorant motherfuckers who usually live under their hate-rocks won't do this again for 30 years.
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,673 posts)Every time I see a poll showing Trump tied or ahead, even considering that at least some of the polls aren't reliable, I get a knot in my stomach. But then, I was nervous at about this time in 2012. Still, the stakes are a lot higher now; Romney was merely terrible as opposed to catastrophic.
leebaba1992
(53 posts)In internal polling. remember Mittens' internal poll?
moonscape
(4,673 posts)I don't go to dinners with him, but still ... my money is on Michele saying Obama doesn't freak out in private either.
Mr.Bill
(24,280 posts)Think about it. What could Trump say that would make you vote for him instead of Hillary?
Polls mean nothing. They are largely tools for the media to make the public think the race is close and stay tuned.
On election eve, they will call it a dead heat. Mark my words. At this point the only thing that could change anything is the death of a candidate.
kairos12
(12,852 posts)Matthew Rose
(66 posts)democrattotheend
(11,605 posts)I'm jealous that you got to go.
treestar
(82,383 posts)this happened in both his elections. Same old, repetitive stuff.
DFW
(54,341 posts)At an election strategy meeting in July 2012, before Obama arrived, his strategist David Simas told me that around Labor Day the polls would tighten. He said that he would pull his hair out so that I wouldn't have to. I don't know if he really did, but I really didn't. It turned out indeed as it should have. For that matter, I saw David again in January 2013, and he still had a hell of a lot more hair than I did.
randome
(34,845 posts)[hr][font color="blue"][center]A 90% chance of rain means the same as a 10% chance:
It might rain and it might not.[/center][/font][hr]
underpants
(182,769 posts)I always wanted to do that.
bmstee01
(453 posts)I am freaking out. I'm having trouble sleeping and focusing on work. I just want Hillary to catch a break. And I really get sick on the media saying she doesn't talk about policies. She does, but it's boring so they don't cover her. They will let our country go to hell for ratings.
Response to brooklynite (Original post)
Name removed Message auto-removed
Kingofalldems
(38,450 posts)Response to Kingofalldems (Reply #32)
Name removed Message auto-removed
DemonGoddess
(4,640 posts)I don't see a reason to freak out. The polls are slanted. They've ALWAYS been slanted. We knew this before this month.
bigwillq
(72,790 posts)I don't freak out about elections.
KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)ever spoken privilege more loudly than this one?
You really should delete this. It is unbecoming.