2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum2nd Florida Poll out today gives HRC 5-point lead 42-37
SAINT LEO, FL Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton has a small lead over GOP opponent Donald Trump, with Clinton attracting the support of 42 percent of likely voters nationally compared to 36.5 percent favoring Trump, according to the latest poll from the Saint Leo University Polling Institute (http://polls.saintleo.edu). Meanwhile, 11.5 percent of the voters said they were unsure. The survey was conducted September 10 to 16.
The results from a separate, concurrent sample of likely voters in the important state of Florida showed similar results. Clinton was ahead with 44.6 percent compared to 39.6 percent for Trump, and 10.7 percent unsure.
The survey followed up with uncertain, but likely, voters to ask which candidate they were leaning toward. When those responses were added to the tabulations for likely voters who had made their decisions, the trends followed the same general pattern, as shown in this table.
Party/Candidate Combined support national
Voters leaning toward support and decided supporters
Combined support FL
Voters leaning toward support and decided supporters
Democrat Clinton 46.2% (decided voters = 42%) 49.4% (decided voters = 44.6%)
Republican Trump 41% (decided voters = 36.5%) 43.6% (decided voters = 39.6%)
Libertarian Johnson 9.3% (decided voters = 7.6%) 5.7% (decided voters = 4%)
Green Stein 3.6% (decided voters = 2.5%) 1.7% (decided voters =1.5%)
METHODOLOGY: The surveys were conducted using an online survey instrument from September 10 September 16. The national sample included responses from 1,103 adults and has a margin of error of +/- 3.0 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.
http://polls.saintleo.edu/new-saint-leo-survey-shows-presidential-race-between-clinton-and-trump-narrowing-in-florida-and-across-u-s/#utm_sguid=154855,3e0b2b2c-59d3-6fef-5af2-aa0c5cdd0957
democrattotheend
(11,605 posts)I'm not sure how great this poll is - it was taken online and over a lot of days, and then not released for 4 days (weird). But I will take any good news right now.
Charles Bukowski
(1,132 posts)It captures HRC at the lowest point in her campaign and doesnt take into account Trump's latest series of meltdowns.
democrattotheend
(11,605 posts)I'm afraid it will end up helping Trump. As much as we think his reaction is terrifying and shows how unfit and Naziesque he is, to people who are scared he seems forceful and decisive and it might make people think he is right about immigration. If people vote their fear we lose.
Charles Bukowski
(1,132 posts)and Trump Jr's bigotry killed any chance of a poll bump IMO.
democrattotheend
(11,605 posts)That people will be rational enough to recognize that he is so ill fit to handle the presidency.
Farmgirl1961
(1,493 posts)Just wondering, any upticks for Ohio?