538: Trump Now Has 44.5% Chance of Winning Election

[George the Retiree]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#plus

Oh, don't worry: I'm not concerned. Not at all. I'm merely fucking terrified!

[alcibiades_mystery]

1. Welcome to DU

...

[George the Retiree]

3. Thanks

Hopefully you, DU, and I will still be here 6 months from now.

[alcibiades_mystery]

21. Mmmm-hmm

[Doctor Jack]

2. Uh huh, thanks for the update

[jcgoldie]

4. Thanks for that image

I saved it on my phone and have a feeling I'll be spreading it liberally

[GoDawgs]

6. Thats a hilarious meme, Dr J!

[susanna]

7. Love it lol...gonna use this one! n/t

[Dem2]

5. Hiding another one of these silly posts

Y'all keep us entertained tho.

[unblock]

8. predictwise has her back up to 72% after dipping as low as 69% recently.

http://predictwise.com/

[OhZone]

9. 538 seems to lag sometimes.

A new national poll has her back up to +5. And same for Florida.

[George the Retiree]

23. Thank you for engaging me on the issue,

instead of making chickenshit insinuations.

[LAS14]

10. Something to watch. St. Leo U came out...

.... today with Hillary ahead in FL 44.6 to 39.6. There's just a one point difference tipping FL to light pink in 538. If they include this poll (haven't at this point) maybe things will tip in a better direction. Something to watch, anyway.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512429553

[Loki Liesmith]

12. I doubt it makes a difference because

of the trendlines on those polls.

It's major methodological error on Silver's part imo

[Loki Liesmith]

11. see my post

on the matter.

[triron]

13. These

latest estimates are mostly resulting from an Ipsos 50 state online poll which for instance said Trump was winning Florida and Pennsylvania was too close to call plus supposedly Trump was winning in NM and Colo.!

[Loki Liesmith]

14. that is posdef part of it.

But there is an ~2 point reduction in her average numbers in FL due to trend line subtractions. Pitches that state from blue to red.

[triron]

17. Read

your other post in regard to this. I agree Silver has a questionable approach if that is what he is doing.
Wang is at 81% (which caught me by surprise) but don't think he has plugged in the latest Florida nor the NBC GE polls today

[Loki Liesmith]

18. Wangs numbers declined because a chunk of really old polling disappeared from this window

and some not so great new stuff got in. He predicted this about a week ago. It may stabilize at this level, or not. One week of solidly bad polling is hurting us all over.

I think the "right" number is probably where Predictwise has it. I am coming to trust markets more and more on this.

Nate's a smart guy, but he puts so many parameters in his model it's impossible to fit properly.

He's been doing this for 3 elections now. He really only has 3 data points on which to validate his model. But he has a zillion parameters.

You just can't fit statistical models like that.

[asiliveandbreathe]

15. George - love the name George - my brother and Dad

anyway...take a look at this site

http://www.nytimes.com/section/upshot

Then scroll down to the article go to the article - 2016 Election Forecast - who will be President..I had the same reaction as you - I have 538 on call..LOL -

Then I read upshot at NYT.....

I have already looked into moving to Ireland..too rainy...it's going to be okay..she said....

[George the Retiree]

24. Thanks for that info!

[RBInMaine]

16. Please calm down and find the SPINE. She us UP nationally and in FL, etc. Just chill.

[George the Retiree]

25. Excuse me? Spine?

I'm retired, having worked all my life till the day I hit 65. I served a stint in the military. I will thank you not to impugn my character. Good day.

[pangaia]

27. You will find those here who just sit at their keyboard waiting for somebody to take a crap on.

[RonniePudding]

19. Meh, it's a marathon not a sprint.

[Cattledog]

20. 75%

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html

[book_worm]

22. The polls this week have been much better than last week

both state and national. Two polls out of Florida today both give Hillary a five point lead.

[saltpoint]

26. Let's see how things play out with the

coverage of Trump's having used charitable contributions to cover his legal fees.

That and his getting his sorry butt kicked all over the debate stage Monday evening.

I think the poll following those two variables could be quite clarifying.

[still_one]

28. Why don't you finish the sentence? Hillary has 55.5% chance of winning based on the

polls that Nate had at the time. It didn't include the Florida poll which showed Hillary leading +5 points today by Mammoth, and that also had stein and johnson in the race.

Todays NBC national poll which also included stein and johnson had Hillary +5

Nevada had a Rasmussen poll having trump +3, but that isn't bad since Rasmussen over samples republicans in the poll.

All signs are pointing to a turn around after the media distorted anti-Hillary feeding frenzy from 10 days ago, which included misrepresenting and lying about the deplorable statement, the unequal treatment by matt lauer, and the insane coverage of the pneumonia incident. In addition, the illustrious press has been giving trump a free pass on everything from his foreign entanglements, his tax returns, and questionable charity and business ventures.

That is and will be changing this week, and I anticipate Hillary will hit it out of the park with the debate

[Democat]

29. People sign up to DU to post thread after thread of concern?

I wonder why?

[Demsrule86]

30. Nice post

She is up in PA...she will win.

[radius777]

31. Nate is good but

I didn't believe his model when it said she had a 95% chance of winning, nor do I believe his model now showing Trump with a 44% chance of winning.

None of these website prediction models, imo, are as accurate or objective as the political betting markets, which since March have given Hillary about a 70% (it bounces around but always settles around this number) of winning the presidency. The trendlines are in her favor. I agree that Team Hillary needs to do much better than they have, but as long as she does good in the debates and they execute their strategy properly, she should win. Remember also that the past 2 weeks were probably the lowest point of her campaign, and she's still (even in Nate and other prediction models) holding the advantage.