NYTimes The Upshot: Hillary has a 75% chance of winning.
Last edited Tue Sep 20, 2016, 09:17 PM - Edit history (1)
And Sam Wang's Princeton Election Consortium estimates it as 81%, with a 64% chance of controlling the Senate.
We need to work hard, but let's not panic about another aggregator's estimate.
GO, DEMOCRATS!
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html
The Upshot’s elections model suggests that Hillary Clinton is favored to win the presidency, based on the latest state and national polls. A victory by Mr. Trump remains quite possible: Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same as the probability that an N.F.L. kicker misses a 45-yard field goal.
The New York Times is one of many news organizations to publish election ratings or forecasts. Some, like FiveThirtyEight or the Princeton Election Consortium, use statistical models, as The Times does; others, like the Cook Political Report, rely on reporting and knowledgeable experts’ opinions. PredictWise uses information from betting markets.
We compile and standardize these ratings every day into one scoreboard for comparison. First, every organization’s estimate for who will win the presidency:
SNIP
http://election.princeton.edu
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