NC Poll by PPP: not a great result

[Loki Liesmith]

Donald Trump 45
Hillary Clinton 43
Gary Johnson 6
Clinton/Trump head to head is tied at 47

This is not a "sick Hillary effect". Poll was Sunday-Tuesday.

NC will be a hard state to win.

[Loki Liesmith]

1. MU Law has a Wisconsin poll out this afternoon

we need to be up there.

[Demsrule86]

33. Honestly

I would label this as a 'concern' post...and you completely misinterpreted polls as well.

[Loki Liesmith]

34. Which polls have I misinterpreted?

For what it is worth, I am not "concerned" about much. I get annoyed at freakouts here and do try and preempt them if possible.

I stand by my record here. I am a strong HRC supporter and I know what I'm talking about.

[Demsrule86]

50. You have 600 + posts here. And the latest one was another

'concern' post...can you see why people might wonder about your motivation...and there are several great polls for Hillary out which are ignored.

[Loki Liesmith]

51. which was a concern post? Link to it, chuckles.

[yeoman6987]

2. I don't think secretary Clinton has North Carolina in her 270 total

Even president Obama lost North Carolina in 2012. We have a ton of ways to win. Hillary must win Ohio and should be there personally at least weekly from now on.

[Loki Liesmith]

4. I think NC is more likely than Ohio given recent data

Maybe that will change.

[underpants]

35. Ohio's a coin flip

Always was going to be.

[Loki Liesmith]

40. True.

Trump still can't get past his underperformance cycle in national polling , but it's just a tick high enough to make OH a challenge.

By the end of today things will be a lot more clear. Until the debate

[SaschaHM]

9. Ohio isn't a must win for Clinton either.

She easily gets to 270 without it. PA/VA are.

[geek tragedy]

10. she doesn't need to win Ohio, she does need to win Pennsylvania

The difference between now and 2004 is that she's going to win Colorado and Virginia.

[LisaL]

30. She seems to be doing very well in PA.

[Loki Liesmith]

41. PA is fools gold for Republicans

Love that about us.

[jcgoldie]

3. I'll take it

If she finishes within 2 of Trump in NC on election day then it won't be a landslide we hope for perhaps, but she will have had a good day and likely also have narrow senate control.

[Mary Mac]

56. a lot of anger at MCcrory.

That should help.

[SaschaHM]

5. NC is a swing state that went for Obama in 2008 and Romney in 2012.

Of course, it will be a hard state to win. As a resident, I'm fully aware of the way this state flows back and forth and being statistically tied is great for Clinton at the stage in the game. It only gets better when you factor in the Advertising that she has put into my state and the ground game.

[piechartking]

6. She's already banking early vote in NC

Those numbers are actually up over 2012

http://www.advertiser-tribune.com/page/content.detail/id/1332192/Early-ballots--Clinton-sees-strength-in-NC-but-lags-in-Iowa.html?isap=1&nav=5015

[Loki Liesmith]

15. That's a help

[piechartking]

21. Excerpt from that article is interesting:

"In North Carolina, a must-win state for Trump, more than 53,000 voters had requested ballots, and 2,939 had been returned, according to data compiled by The Associated Press. That's up from 47,313 ballots requested during a similar time frame in 2012.

Broken down by party, Democrats made up 40 percent of the ballots returned so far compared to 33 percent for Republicans. At this point in 2012, Republicans were running slightly ahead, 43 percent to 38 percent, in ballots submitted. Republican Mitt Romney narrowly won the state that year and it's difficult to see how Trump could accumulate the 270 electoral votes needed to capture the White House without winning North Carolina."

So seems like out of the near 3000 returned 1200 are Dems and 1000 Republicans, and the rest I guess are unaffiliated.

[Godhumor]

7. PPP noted that if undecideds break by their Obama/Trump preference

Clinton would be ahead in NC 50-48. So, we have to hope that undecideds have a moment of clarity when entering the booth.

[Loki Liesmith]

16. Where's my rosary when I need it?

[geek tragedy]

8. NC should be considered a red state that went blue in a Democratic landslide year.

I would give the tie to Clinton based on ground game, so certainly not out of reach (Romney had to pour a lot of resources into NC in order to pull out a narrow win in 2012).

[Loki Liesmith]

17. ?

[MoonRiver]

28. obama/trump thing??????????

[Lebam in LA]

54. Yeah, me too

What is obama/trump thing?????

[Codeine]

53. If wishes are stallions then kisses are galleons

and dreamers sail on the sea of love.

Makes about as much sense as your post.

[riversedge]

12. Well, at least it looks like the Dem candidate-Cooper for Gov will have

a good shot at being GOV. --maybe his shirt-tails will pull Hillary along???




....For the first time this entire cycle PPP finds a clear leader in the race to be North Carolina's next Governor: Roy Cooper. Cooper's at 46% to 41% for Pat McCrory, with Libertarian Lon Cecil at 2%. When undecideds and Cecil voters are asked who they'd pick if they had to choose between Cooper and McCrory, Cooper's lead ticks up to 50/43.
McCrory continues to be unpopular, with only 41% of voters approving of him to 49% who disapprove. This makes 39 months in a row we've found his approval rating under water. Voters are generally having a positive reaction as they've become more familiar with Cooper, with 40% of voters rating him positively to 32% who have a negative opinion.

The story in this race is Cooper's strength with independent voters. He leads McCrory 44-33 with them in the full field, and 50-34 with them in the head to head. By contrast, McCrory defeated Walter Dalton by a 2:1 margin with independents in 2012. But they have largely soured on him with now only 36% approving of him to 49% who disapprove.

HB2 is causing McCrory big trouble as well. By a 20 point margin voters want to see it repealed- just 32% support keeping it on the books, to 52% who think it should be overturned. Among pivotal independent voters, there's 56/29 support for repeal. There may be one simple reason HB2 is so unpopular- it's a bill targeting LGBT people, yet only 19% of North Carolinians say they have a negative opinion of LGBT people, to 47% with a positive one and 34% who are indifferent. A bill cutting the rights of a group of people that only a small slice of the electorate has a problem with isn't going to be very popular.......................

[Iliyah]

13. If anything it's a tie

[SCliberal91294]

14. State Polls

Lag national polls. I would say it's a tie. Trump's not having a good week either.

[Loki Liesmith]

18. I've never bought that

They appear to lag because they are taken less often.

However this was taken this week

[helpisontheway]

19. I'm fine with the results...NC is a red state that turned BLUE in 2008..then back to RED in 2012

The results are a statistical tie. If Hillary gets the early votes banked AND has a very good ground game then she can still win. NC would be nice for Hillary but Trump NEEDS it to win.

[NCTraveler]

20. The only people that can say this isn't solid news...

Are Republicans. Wow. Great news is what this is.

"sick Hillary effect"



You don't need to put your own words in quotation marks.

[NCTraveler]

24. That is so far out there I see no need for a serious reply.

It's clear that you aren't being serious.

What's gone is any logic or even basic thought in your analysis.

[SaschaHM]

25. Apparantly, GA/AZ was a "safety" state and FL = gone since Hillary was up in the last 2 polls. nt.

[Godhumor]

26. Neither Nevada nor Florida are gone

In fact, Florida is looking very positive lately, which would end election night very early.

And it very, very debatable whether Ohio should be considered gone by any stretch of the imagination.

[Demsrule86]

31. None of the the states you mention or safety net states.

They are tossups in every election...and I dispute that some that you mention are 'gone' Ohio is not gone, Florida is not gone and some others as well. We have not won AZ in 50 years or more...how about a dose of reality.

[MoonRiver]

37. Your "concern" is duly noted.

[gabeana]

39. troll bait

no doubt about this one
thanks for playing yeah 46 post hmmm

[MoonRiver]

42. Hello MIRT!

[gabeana]

43. What does MIRT mean

[MoonRiver]

44. It's a mod selected group that investigates and bans posters with under 100 posts.

[gabeana]

46. oh ok thanks for the info

[MoonRiver]

49. No problem!

[winstars]

48. You're a funny guy

[Norbert]

52. Last I read AZ & GA are within the MOE

I don't expect a win in those two states but it will make Orangeboy spend time on the states Romney didn't need to campaign in.

Last I saw FL leaning HRC & Ohio dead heat. Even NV & IW are close. With national polls trending slightly HRC the latter three may get reeled in on the good side.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. Those results are consistent with a 2-4 point national lead.

[Bad Thoughts]

27. NC is a money sink for the republicans

Whether or not Dems can win it it secondary to using it to force Republicans to spend money in a state that they believe they should win.

[Loki Liesmith]

55. Also true.

Wanted to win NC though. Still do. 2 out of 3 elections would equal a changed map for sure.

[Demsrule86]

29. It is North Carolina

which we lost for years until 2008.

[Loki Liesmith]

32. true, true

main concern at this point is the similar polling we were seeing out of NC and a few midwestern light blues. I am hopeful that different dynamics at work in those states keep them blue.

[MoonRiver]

36. I really appreciate all your "concern."

[Loki Liesmith]

38. Have you even looked at my posting history?

I post what I want. You can read or block me. Your call. Makes no difference to me.

[MoonRiver]

45. You keep throwing this out there.

All I know is that most of the posts I see from you predict doom and gloom for Hillary. Meh.

[Loki Liesmith]

47. My election model has her at a 60-70% probability of a win

I post data and my analysis of data. Your feelings about that data are irrelevant to me.

[Mary Mac]

57. sometimes it helps to look at Sam Wang at Princeton electoral

We could win NC if we strengthen the local races. Hillary might need to run on local coattails.