Bad Fox Polls: Trump leading in OH, NV, NC

[democrattotheend]

I am tempted to discount these because it's Fox, but their polls are not always terrible. The polls themselves don't seem to have a strong GOP bias, just the way they report them. But they used landlines and cell phones, did bilingual in Nevada, and did it over a 3 day period (September 18-20), so I won't dismiss them out of hand.

Here are the numbers:

Nevada: Trump 43, Clinton 40, Johnson 8 (Stein not on ballot in NV)
North Carolina: Trump 45, Clinton 40, Johnson 6 (Stein not on ballot)
Ohio: Trump 42, Clinton 37, Johnson 6, Stein 2

Sorry to put a damper on a day of good polls

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/09/21/fox-news-poll-trump-tops-clinton-in-battlegrounds-nevada-n-carolina-ohio.html

[alcibiades_mystery]

1. "Sorry to..."

[democrattotheend]

2. You still think I don't want Hillary to win?

I challenge you: find one post of mine that in any way suggests that.

[alcibiades_mystery]

4. ...

I see you, homie.

[democrattotheend]

5. WTF?

[geek tragedy]

19. democrattotheend is solid, in my interactions

not a concern troll at all

[TheCowsCameHome]

22. Don't pout.

It's petty.

[7worldtrade]

3. 538 still has her up a bit from earlier today

And it looks like they included those polls because it was updated around 630pm and the fox polls came out at 6 pm.

[Loki Liesmith]

6. Bad polls happen. Lots of good news today.

Nevada was the only real surprise. But it's very gettable for us. I mostly want to drive a steak through the heart of some twitter turds with a crushing pro HRC Ohio poll though.

Better keep it brief so I don't get accused of concern trolling.

[democrattotheend]

8. People here are ridiculous about "concern trolling"

It is not "concern trolling" to express nervousness when the polls don't look good. It is not "concern trolling" to point out something you think the campaign could be doing better. I can't stand how some people just want to bury their heads in the sand and only look at the nice rosy and good stuff while ignoring any bad news. I was banned from the Bernie group on here for 4 months because I was overly realistic about his chances of winning after the New York primary. I'm not sure what people think they have to gain from ignoring bad news.

[Loki Liesmith]

21. A real concern troll is very obvious

When someone comes into a forum begging to be comforted because a Trump presidency is inevitable and we can't stop him and nothing we do works...my troll sense starts tingling.

Me, I posted what I thought was a good result and got accused of it.

Fuck it. I'll just post my model results and stats.

[RAFisher]

37. Agree. I don't understand why these people are so sensative about this

First Clinton is winning and has been for months. Talking about bad polls doesn't damage her chances. But the last week national polls have gone more Clinton's way and so has Florida. However Ohio does seem to be staying on the Trump side. I don't know why people think it's good to ignore this.

[Cicada]

7. Fox polls pretty accurate this year

Same with nbcwallstjournal polls which released poll showing Hillary up 6 or 7 nationally. Polls bounce around. Look at the average, not individual polls.

[democrattotheend]

10. These polls are very recent

In a fast moving contest, I think the most recent poll from a reputable pollster is more accurate than an average that may go back a couple weeks.

[Cicada]

32. Obama campaign nerds say polls overstate volatility

The Obama campaign nerds have claimed that poll variation is mostly due to transient willingness of one side's supporters to talk to a pollster. They claim that real support for one candidate or the other is remarkably stable even though polls go up and down. They told Joe Scarborough and others what the vote was going to be in 2012 one month before the vote and were extremely accurate.

[Dawson Leery]

9. Lots of good polls for HRC this week.

Trump TV had to come up with something.

[factfinder_77]

11. The Fox Ohio poll is pure crap. : 5,5% - 9 % error margin among subgroups

The Fox Ohio poll is pure crap.

the error margin: (registed, likely voters( among:

indepentens are 8 % and 9 %
voters under 45 are 6 % and 7 %

dem/rep are 5,5 %

[MFM008]

12. I knew it wouldn't take long

For someone to release bad news polls to drag down the averages.

[zenabby]

13. I agree with you democrattotheend

While her overall trend is getting better, and she obviously looks like she is going to win (crossed fingers) - these three states are not looking good. Fox is a decent polster, and these are facts, especially since early voting has started.I am especially curious about NC though because I saw that it was very competitive, and based on early voting, Hillary had the advantage. Let's check out a few other polls to see what's happening.

[democrattotheend]

14. Right now Trump seems to have a slight edge there

Although other polls have shown it closer than this one.

Usually state polls follow national poll trends, but these polls are very recent, so they are surprising in light of the good polls today.

[yardwork]

15. NC and OH are more competitive than this.

I don't know about NV, but I'm sure that the race is essentially tied in NC and OH.

[helpisontheway]

16. Like a guest on one of the MSNBC shows said

last night. If you look at all of the polling averages Trump has NEVER been in the lead. He said look at the trend lines. He said the individual poll numbers bounce around a bit but Hillary is always leading in the poll averages.

[vadermike]

17. Wasn't

Monmouth supposed to be coming out with a good HRC lead for NV today ? Or am I dreaming ? I still think we will win NV I live here

[geek tragedy]

18. These seem credible--NC is really still a red state

and Nevada and Ohio are chock full of the uneducated white voters who love them some Drumpf.

Clinton's probably going to underperform in the EC compared to her popular vote, at least compared to how Obama did, because a lot of white voters are flocking to trump in Iowa, Ohio and Nevada.

[molova]

23. North Carolina is not a red state. Obama won twice there

If you are talking about the NC Congress, say so.

[geek tragedy]

24. Obama only won in 2008--Romney won there

As did the Bush family (total of 4 times) and Bob Dole.

2 GOP Senators, GOP governor, GOP dominated legislature.

[molova]

46. so it's not a purple state?

Are you gonna skip the purple color?

[geek tragedy]

49. Democrats need to win there more than once for it to be a purple state, in my opinion.

If Clinton wins there, then yes it's a purple state. Or if they dump the governor and/or Senator this election.

Purple states right now are probably Nevada, Iowa, Ohio, Florida.

[vdogg]

51. and Virginia though it's more blue every year.

[geek tragedy]

52. Virginia and Colorado are edging closer to becoming straight up blue states

They may be there already.

We may not know for sure until 2020.

[Ligyron]

54. The ones that voted for Dole and Bush are probably dead by now.

Demographics have definitely changed since then.

Still, it's pretty red all right.

[Demsrule86]

34. Obama won only once actually...2008 nt

[still_one]

38. North Carolina is a red state. That doesn't mean there aren't pockets of blue within that state,

or that it is as red as Alabama or Mississippi, it is still considered red.

I also believe North Carolina is in play

[name not needed]

55. It is after last night.

[triron]

56. Which?

Red or 'in play'?

[democrattotheend]

25. If she can hold Pennsylvania, Virginia and Colorado she can win without these states

And thus far it looks good in all three. But I am thinking the Clinton campaign is getting tighter results for PA in their internal polls than what we are seeing, based on how many superstars they are sending to Philly.

[geek tragedy]

28. Pennsylvania is a must win and Trump is making a big play there nt

[kevink077]

31. Republicans always think that

And it always goes blue. Philly and Pittsburg are very difficult to overcome in a presidential year.

[geek tragedy]

36. Romney didn't play there until late in the cycle.

Trump is strongly over performing Romney in Wisconsin and Ohio, so Pennsylvania is a very logical battleground.

The question is who will turn out to vote.

[democrattotheend]

42. I never understood why Romney didn't contest Pennsylvania until the end

It was always a battleground state until 2012, when Romney decided to ignore it until the very end.

When he went there in the last week of the campaign, I remember saying "this is a Hail Mary, but Hail Mary passes do occasionally get caught."

I think if Romney had contested it from the beginning and forced Obama to defend it he might have done better overall.

[geek tragedy]

44. He played there only because his efforts

fizzled everywhere else.

[oberliner]

30. And Florida

If she loses those states and Florida, then she loses.

[Demsrule86]

35. She is up in PA and in FL...Trump loses if he loses PA

and he will do so.

[democrattotheend]

43. Not necessarily. Kerry won PA and lost the election

Kerry didn't have Virginia and Colorado, so Hillary starts out in a better position if she can keep those. But that model assumes she keeps all the other Kerry states plus either Iowa or Nevada, neither of which look good for her at the moment.

[Demsrule86]

45. We have Virginia now and will get Colorado and Nevada and I think Florida too.

The map is quite different. We also have close elections in states not traditionally Democratic...Trump can't win without Pennsylvania. Consider how close both 2000 and 2004 . Without Virginia, they need Pennsylvania. The only map available to the GOP is the 2000 and 2004 map...the GOP has a hard time to ever win these days...and this year is no different. In 2000 Bush won with 271 electoral votes. In 2004 Bush won with 286 electoral votes. The first one is 2000 and the second is 2004.

[oberliner]

47. Florida is a coin flip right now

It would really behoove HRC to win that state.

[Demsrule86]

48. I think she will take Florida and probably Ohio too when all is said and done...

When you look at the electoral map...there is no easy way for the GOP to win...the 2000 and 2004 maps which were very close elections...no longer apply.

[oberliner]

57. I sure hope so

If HRC takes Florida, Ohio, and PA then all will be well.

[still_one]

39. There are other combinations too. She had good results from Florida yesterday. As someone said

there are more possible combinations for Hilary to win verses Trump.

Still as I think we all can agree the most important thing we can do is phone banking to registered Democrats in swing states to persuade them to vote

[vadermike]

20. And yet

Another poll from insight west Don't know who they are they give Trump plus 2 in NV Wtf I hoe we over perform on election nite in NV these star polls are starting to really worry me

[gabeana]

26. Within 2 points is okay

The dems have a better ground game

[MyNameIsKhan]

27. 5pt loss in Ohio with reduced turnout is 250k votes

Not possible

[kevink077]

29. Now till debates polls mean nothing

If Clinton takes trump to town it will be polling like post convention. She needs to hunker down this weekend and do nothing but debate prep , with the most ruthless stand in they can find.

[still_one]

40. The most crucial thing we can do is call banking to get out the vote of registered Democrats

[tavernier]

33. The poll of kitty litter.

Donald J. Trump has a huge HUGE amount of shit in his litter box.

[triron]

41. Could not

find age demographics in this poll except that Clinton Kaine did very well under 45 vs the opposite of over 45. Additionally many more under 45 were choosing 3rd party or no vote option. Under performance relative to the Yougov (I think) poll a few weeks go that showed Clinton up 7 in ohio. Perhaps she lost a quite a few voters to Johnson.

[rbrnmw]

50. I believe the Ohio poll is bullshit

I have lots of Republicans and Democrats begging for signs Signing pledges to vote for Hillary. I don't see Trump winning Ohio.

[tonyt53]

53. A pollster can get the answers they want by the way they word the questions.

Fox isn't stupid.